Week 3 – Mississippi St at South Carolina
The Game
We’ve got a very interesting matchup to look forward to at 4 PM EST on Saturday, as a pair of teams looking to become SURPRISE PACKAGES in the SEC go head‑to‑head down in Columbia. South Carolina has absolutely crushed a pair of TOMATO CANS (Towson, Kent St) by a combined tally of 120–9 and has looked really good on both sides of the football. It’s hard to take too much away from those wins, but the early returns are certainly positive. Mississippi St dismembered the corpse of ULM in their opener and then whooped Minnesota on their home field last week. They roll into town full of confidence.
The Details
South Carolina -3.5 Mississippi St (58.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – South Carolina -4
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: South Carolina 31 Mississippi St 27.5
South Carolina offense vs Mississippi St defense
QB LaNorris Sellers is coming off a down year after setting the world on fire in 2024, but he’s looked good to open the new season (63%, 3–1 TD to INT, 120 rush yards, TD). The best news of all for the Cocks on this side of the football is a devastating rushing attack that’s taken no prisoners thus far (342 YPG, #3 FBS). The damage has come vs soft competition, but it’s still a great sign for an offense that really struggled to run the football last year — and don’t forget that in Week 2 of 2025 they could barely run the ball against something called South Carolina St (36–125, 3.5). The offensive line has held up well in pass protection, and WR Nyck Harbor looks poised for a big season.
Mississippi St held both of their first two opponents under 300 yards of total offense and picked up four sacks along the way. However, this will be the first real test for the Bulldogs’ stop unit, and containing the run game — including the scrambling ability of LaNorris Sellers — has to be priority #1. They had a lot of trouble stopping the run last year, so we’ll see how things go.
Mississippi St offense vs South Carolina defense
The Bulldogs have one of the most exciting and talented specimens in college football in QB Kamario Taylor, who’s put up eye‑popping numbers (68%, 7–0 TD to INT, 145 rush yards, TD) and looked really good doing it. RB FLUFF Bothwell is healthy and gives Mississippi St a lethal ground attack that must be respected. The Bulldogs also have a talented WR corps led by Anthony Evans (239 yards, 17.1 per, 2 TD), and they’ll provide a stern challenge for a talented South Carolina secondary. The Cocks have been good vs the run and tough to throw on in the early going (56%, 4.6 YPA, TD, INT), and their best chance to win this game is to force Mississippi St into some difficult passing situations and hope Taylor makes a mistake or two. That won’t be easy, but the Cocks tend to show out on their home field. Also note that South Carolina will get star DE Dylan Stewart back for his first action of 2026, and while it’s impossible to expect the usual lethal performance from Stewart in his first game back, it sure doesn’t hurt to have him out there.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
South Carolina has the scheduling advantage in this game, as they remain at home for the third consecutive week whilst Mississippi St is playing on the road for the second straight game.
Shane Beamer is 14–10 ATS as home chalk with the Cocks. Jeff Lebby is 7–4 ATS as a road underdog with Mississippi St.
South Carolina was won and covered five consecutive home meetings with Mississippi St.
The weather will be steamy with a 60% chance of rain/thunderstorm.
Summary
These are two similar teams, but we believe South Carolina is stronger in the trenches, and they’ve got the situational advantage.
Conclusion
Lean – South Carolina -3.5 -115
-3.5 -115 is consensus
Posted 2:22pm Sept 18
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’ll start the season investing 25% more on these plays in comparison to our ‘leans’ or smaller plays. The 25% increased risk size may change during the season as we take stock of how things are going. We’ll typically have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that it’s not one of our favorite plays of the week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards. We’ve used this terminology for over 20 years, so as annoying as the word ‘lean’ may be, we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’. We’ll typically post between 8 and 12 of these plays per week.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.