Week 3 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Let’s get ready for Week 3 action!
Summary of picks:
Official plays — South Alabama -5.5, Mississippi +3
Leans (smaller plays) — UCLA/Purdue OV 53, Temple Team Total UN 22.5, Rice +9.5, South Carolina -3.5 -115, Stanford +10, New Mexico +21.5
FRIDAY AM UPDATE — We’ll have a few more picks before 5pm today, including one send-out/official play.
UPDATE FRIDAY 4:50pm – We’re done for the week. Enjoy the games and best of luck!
Handy index: Quick Takes
Games with analysis completed are in bold.
Picks are in BOLD CAPS.
- Syracuse at Pittsburgh (Thursday)
- Miami at Wake Forest (Friday)
- Houston at Texas Tech (Friday)
- Coastal Carolina at Delaware
- Kent St at Ohio St
- Georgia at Arkansas
- Buffalo at Penn St
- North Carolina at Clemson
- Bowling Green at Iowa St
- Arizona St vs Kansas (London, England)
- Tulane at Kansas St
- Akron at Minnesota
- North Texas at Texas St
- Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin
- Troy at Missouri
- NC State at Vanderbilt
- Wyoming at Central Michigan
- TEMPLE at Toledo (Lean)
- Kentucky at Texas A&M
- Florida St at Alabama
- USC at Rutgers
- UTEP at Michigan
- SMU at Louisville
- Utah St at Utah
- Miami Ohio vs Cincinnati (Neutral site, TQL Stadium, Cincinnati)
- Western Kentucky at Indiana
- STANFORD at Duke (Lean)
- Louisiana Tech at Baylor
- Ball St at Liberty
- Mississippi St at SOUTH CAROLINA (Lean) (SEE FULL PAGE GAME ANALYSIS)
- Charlotte at Appalachian St
- Florida International at FAU
- East Carolina at Old Dominion
- Marshall at Missouri St
- Florida at Auburn
- Western Michigan at RICE (Lean)
- Connecticut at Southern Miss
- Nevada at MTSU
- Georgia St at UCF
- Georgia Southern at Jacksonville St
- Ohio at SOUTH ALABAMA (Official Pick)
- Michigan St at Notre Dame
- LSU at OLE MISS (Official Pick) (SEE FULL PAGE GAME ANALYSIS)
- NEW MEXICO at Oklahoma (Lean)
- BYU at Colorado St
- Virginia Tech at Maryland
- West Virginia vs Virginia (Charlotte)
- Colorado at Northwestern
- Kennesaw St at Tennessee
- UTSA at Texas
- UAB at Louisiana
- Arkansas St at TCU
- James Madison at San Diego St
- Northern Illinois at Arizona
- North Dakota St at Sacramento St
- Fresno St at San Jose St
- PURDUE at UCLA (Lean)
1. Pittsburgh -10.5 Syracuse (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Pittsburgh -9
Vegas Implied Score – Pittsburgh 31.0 Syracuse 20.5
There’s some tempting “value” with the underdog according to our numbers, and Syracuse has to be smarting after blowing the game vs California last week. The Orange defense has stepped up, but QB Steve Angeli hasn’t looked good (56%, 4–3 TD to INT), and note that Syracuse is DEAD LAST in the nation in penalty yards per game. That’s not good, yo. Pitt lit up Miami Ohio in the opener and won a 12–7 SNOT BUBBLER over UCF in some horrible conditions last week. The offense will almost certainly look better this time out, but laying double digits seems rich. Note that Pitt has won 11 (!) in a row at home vs the Orange and covered on eight of those occasions. More rain is forecast for game day, so keep an eye on that if you plan on playing the total.
No leanage
2. Miami -20.5 Wake Forest (55.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Miami -20
Vegas Implied Score – Miami 38.0 Wake Forest 17.5
The Demon Deacons are sitting at 2–0 after slithering past Purdue on the road in OT last week. They’ve got a bit less prep time for this one, and that’s not great with YOUR Miami Hurricanes coming to town. Miami has taken down Stanford and the mighty Florida A&M Rattlers by a combined tally of 122–13, but this will be their toughest test yet. Wake HC Jake Dickert is 7–2 ATS as a home dog over his career with Washington State and Wake Forest.
No leanage
3. Texas Tech -7.5 Houston (53)………..MEGALOCKS line – Texas Tech -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas Tech 30.25 Houston 22.75
Texas Tech has been somewhat thrown in the trash already this season, but to be fair, they haven’t looked close to the team we saw last year in wins over Abilene Christian and Oregon St. QB Will Hammond has been okay, but he doesn’t look 100% healthy. The run D has been stout, but the pass defense? Not so much. Houston looked better in their win over Oregon St, but they played at home whilst Texas Tech had to travel to Corvallis. The Coogs have also been stout vs the run but allowed the Beavers to torch them through the air. The Red Raiders beat Houston 35-11 on their home field last season. Our numbers say Texas Tech, and we might take a small taste if the number hits −7.
No leanage
4. Delaware -4.5 Coastal Carolina (57.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Delaware -4
Vegas Implied Score – Delaware 31.0 Coastal Carolina 26.5
Delaware sits at 1–1, and the Blue Hens gave Vanderbilt all they could handle last week, actually leading the Commodores at the half. QB Nick Minicucci has thrown 3 INTs already but has also piled up a lot of passing yards. Coastal Carolina fell behind West Virginia 24‑CACK in their opener but ended up losing by a mere 7 points after dominating the second half. They also sit at 1–1 after blowing out Fordham last week. Chants QB Deuce Bailey has a spicy 6–0 TD‑to‑INT ratio so far. Prefer the dog, but wish we were getting a wee bit more value. Delaware was 5–1 at home LY.
No leanage
5. Ohio St -52.5 Kent St (58.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -50
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 55.5 Kent St 3.0
We could only look to play on the Buckeyes in this spot, but the market price is too steep for our tastes and Ohio St is stuck in a tricky sandwich situation — coming off the loss to Texas with Illinois on deck. The Buckeyes poleaxed Ball State 56–3 in Week 1, and Kent State is obviously completely overmatched.
No leanage
6. Georgia -24.5 Arkansas (54.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Georgia -24
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia 39.5 Arkansas 15.0
Georgia has been putting PADDLE TO AZZ so far this year, destroying Tennessee St and WKU by a combined 133–23, but they’ve got the massive tilt with Oklahoma up next, and they’re just 3–8 ATS as road chalk over the L3Y. WOO PIG came through for us last week, playing like WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE and getting cremated by Utah. We expect them to show a bit of fight in this one. Line looks about right.
No leanage
7. Penn St -39.5 Buffalo (48.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Penn St -35.5
Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 44.0 Buffalo 4.5
We expected the Penn St–Temple game to be low‑scoring last week, but didn’t think Temple would be able to give the Nittany Lions as much trouble as they did in a 27–9 Penn St victory. Buffalo is going to have a heck of a time getting anything going against that defense, and this will be their second straight road game — traveling all the way from Florida after getting drilled by FIU. Penn St has Wisconsin up next. It looks like a few too many points, and we’ll call it “dog, or pass,” with our preference on the latter.
No leanage
8. Clemson -3.5 North Carolina (43.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Clemson -5
Vegas Implied Score – Clemson 23.0 North Carolina 19.5
Tough game to call. UNC is 2–0 after taking down TCU in Ireland and wiping the floor with East Tennessee St in Week 2. They’re getting efficient QB play and strong work from the stop unit. Clemson is a TIRE FIRE but still has some noteworthy talent on both sides of the ball. Note that the Tigers will be rolling with true freshman QB Tait Reynolds. Our favorite look is the under, but it’s always a bit dicey going under a total that low unless Iowa is involved. Pass for now.
No leanage
9. Iowa St -23.5 Bowling Green (45.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Iowa St -22
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa St 34.5 Bowling Green 11.0
Iowa St gave Iowa all they could handle last week in a three‑point loss, but they’re still very limited on offense and have the Big 12 opener next week (Utah). Bowling Green might be beyond horrible, but we don’t want to overreact after they got destroyed at Nebraska. Iowa St is also well out of their weight class, but nowhere near the team that CORN is this season.
No leanage
10. Arizona St -5.5 Kansas (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Arizona St -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Arizona St 28 Kansas 22.5
It’s the first FBS / Division I game ever to be played in England — the only other college football game to be played there came back in 1988 when the mighty Richmond Spiders disposed of Boston University 20–17. Trivia BOMBS, yo. We prefer Arizona St in this event — The UNION JACK CLASSIC — as they outgained Texas A&M on the road last week on both total yards and YPP, but turned the ball over four times and gave up two defensive scores in the fourth quarter. QB Cutter Boley is playing well, and the defense has been solid — they held the Aggies to 255 yards and 4.25 YPP on their home field. Kansas just got dominated by Missouri in the BORDER WAR, and while QB Isaiah Marshall is a dangerous specimen, they struggled mightily in the secondary last week. The variance around traveling to play a game across the pond is keeping us off the game for now, but any number −6 or better is the way we would go if forced to make a play. We’ll probably take a final look at this one later in the week.
No leanage
11. Kansas St -20.5 Tulane (49.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Kansas St -18
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas St 35.0 Tulane 14.5
This game is tempting us. You know we’re low on Tulane this season, and they escaped with their lives last week vs South Alabama. Kansas St hasn’t allowed a defensive TD yet, although they’ve only faced Washington St and something referred to as Nicholls. It’s just a few too many points to lay for our liking. Recall that Tulane SHOCKED THE WORLD back in 2022 when they beat Kansas St in this very venue. The Wildcats open Big 12 play next week at Cincinnati.
No leanage
12. Minnesota -24.5 Akron (49.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Minnesota -23
Vegas Implied Score – Minnesota 37.0 Akron 12.5
The Golden Gophers couldn’t handle the athleticism of Mississippi St and star QB Kamario Taylor last week, but they get a significant drop in class this week battling the mighty Zips of Akron. Minnesota is in a wee bit of a lookahead spot with the Big Ten opener up next (at Washington), but they’re 8–3 ATS over their last 11 as 20+ point favorites. Akron is on an 8–14 ATS skid as 20+ point dogs, but they did cover — albeit in SHAWSHANK PRISON STYLE for Wake Forest backers — in their first time out.
No leanage
13. Texas St -3 North Texas (63.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Texas St -1
Vegas Implied Score – Texas St 33.25 North Texas 30.25
Texas St has played one of the toughest schedules in the country (Texas, UTSA) and probably should’ve beaten the Roadrunners last week as they led by 10 at the half. Turnovers were the killer, and QB Brad Jackson hasn’t looked great thus far. The rushing attack has looked just fine, tho. If they get star WR Beau Sparks back this week the THROW GAME will get a major boost, but he’s questionable as we approach press time. North Texas outgained Indiana (that happened) in their opening‑week blowout loss and cremated UNLV last week, and they look spicy so far under new HC Neal Brown. They’ve also had a nasty docket to open the year and have looked better than the Bobcats. Prefer the dog, and another one that we may come back to later.
No leanage
14. Wisconsin -24.5 Eastern Michigan (45.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Wisconsin -25
Vegas Implied Score – Wisconsin 35.0 Eastern Michigan 10.5
The Badgers played a very good first half vs Notre Dame in their opener and then fell apart, and they kinda slept through most of the blowout win over Western Illinois last week as 42‑point favs (W 36–9). The defense is looking good, but the offense has been disappointing. Eastern Michigan plays their second consecutive road game vs Power 4 opposition after getting pasted by Michigan St last week. They’re traditionally a good bet as a road underdog, but we get the feeling they might be ready to start hitting the much easier part of the schedule (Lindenwood, UMass, Akron are up next).
No leanage
15. Missouri -27.5 Troy (49.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Missouri -25
Vegas Implied Score – Missouri 38.5 Troy 11.0
Argh. Another favorite we liked before seeing the number. Missouri is REAL and SPECTACULAR, and they come off a big win over Kansas despite all the SHARP ACTION insisting that a mediocre Jayhawks squad would be competitive. The Tigers have a massive game up next to open SEC play (at Mississippi State), so we’ll have to sit on the sidelines for this event.
No leanage
16. Vanderbilt -3.5 NC State (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Vanderbilt -5
Vegas Implied Score – Vanderbilt 28.0 NC State 24.5
Vanderbilt will be giving the start to highly recruited true freshman QB Jared Curtis, who’s been their best QB so far, and while that gives the offense more upside, it’s not a given that he’ll have a great day vs the NC State defense. The Pack got destroyed by Virginia in their opener and then bounced back with a 73‑zip blowout win over Richmond in Week 2.
No leanage
17. Central Michigan -1.5 Wyoming (39.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Central Michigan 20.5 Wyoming 19.0
An absolutely disgusting game that probably demands an Under play, but we lined it at 38.5 and were hoping for something in the low 40s. Central Michigan is incapable of throwing the football with any degree of accuracy or success, and Wyoming’s offense has been a disappointment thus far. Both stop units are capable. First team to five points wins?
No leanage
18. Toledo -5.5 Temple (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Toledo -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo 28.0 Temple 22.5
It’s hard to imagine Temple getting to their team total, as they’re extremely run‑heavy (67%) and rank #128 in the nation in tempo. Toledo has one of the best defenses in the MAC and ranks #18 in the country in yards‑per‑play (3.80) despite facing Michigan St on the road in one of those two games. At home, Toledo hasn’t allowed more than 22.5 points since late in the 2024 (!) season when they gave up 24 to a powerful Ohio offense.
Lean – Temple Team Total Under 22.5 -111
Consensus is 22.5. We’ve seen the range anywhere from 21.5 to 23.5 -123. Alternate play for those interested is Under 50.5.
Posted 2:41pm Sept 16
19. Texas A&M -16.5 Kentucky (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Texas A&M -17.5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas A&M 33.5 Kentucky 17.0
We’re not in a rush to back either of these teams at the moment. Kentucky played very well at home vs Alabama last week — for a half — and then got drilled 32‑zip in the second half. Now the Cats have to get up off the mat and compete at Kyle Field. Texas A&M was outplayed by Arizona St last week but found a way to win by 28 points thanks in large part to a pair of defensive scores late in the game.
No leanage
20. Alabama -20.5 Florida St (49.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Alabama -19
Vegas Implied Score – Alabama 35.0 Florida St 14.5
An absolutely massive revenge spot for The Tide after they were embarrassed by Florida St in the 2025 lid‑lifter in Tallahassee. Alabama’s defense really turned it on in the second half last week and shut out Kentucky 32‑0 after the break. Florida St has looked mediocre so far, although they almost beat SMU (L 27–24) with the help of four Mustang turnovers. Florida St still has a stud WR and a deep RB room, so we’d probably take the points if we had to make a choice. Alabama has the SEC opener vs South Carolina up next and a young QB making just his third start.
No leanage
21. USC -24.5 Rutgers (59.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – USC -23
Vegas Implied Score – USC 42.0 Rutgers 17.5
The Trojans have averaged 43 PPG in their first three wins and have outgained their opponents by an average of 513–270. They get a similar level of opposition this week and they’ll almost certainly win big, but with the epic matchup vs Oregon on the horizon, it doesn’t seem reasonable to think we’ll see FULL THROTTLE for 60 minutes. Note the ridiculously long trip from LA to New Jersey.
No leanage
22. Michigan -35.5 UTEP (48.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Michigan -34
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan 42.0 UTEP 6.5
UTEP didn’t score a point vs Oklahoma on the road, although they missed a few field goals, and we don’t see much hope for them vs a killer Michigan defense. The Wolverines are coming off the big win over the Sooners and have a date with Iowa up next.
No leanage
23. Louisville -1.5 SMU (58.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Louisville -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Louisville 30.0 SMU 28.5
This is a monumental ACC clash as both teams are looking to take a stranglehold on the #2 spot in the early going. We prefer the Cardinals to get it done at home, but we can’t deny that they’re having a ton of difficulty defending the pass — and that’s not ideal when facing SMU QB Kevin Jennings, who’s put up monster numbers thus far. The Mustangs have taken down LUA‑VUH in each of the last two years.
No leanage
24. Utah -28.5 Utah St (56.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Utah -26
Vegas Implied Score – Utah 42.5 Utah St 14.0
Sleep on Utah if you want, but they have the potential to CRUSH and KILL this season, as evidenced by their complete dismantling of Arkansas in a 96,000‑star MEGALOCKS Iron Clad Super Lock winner last week. The issue we have in this event is that the number is a bit rich, and it’s a rivalry game in the eyes of the underdog. Also recall that Utah St gave Washington fits last week. Dog, or pass.
No leanage
25. Cincinnati -16.5 Miami Ohio (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Cincinnati -14.5
Vegas Implied Score – Cincinnati 33.5 Miami Ohio 17.0
Another edition of the Battle for the VICTORY BELL is here. While the underdog Redhawks are showing some line value according to our MAC INSIDERS, they’re only a game removed from getting poleaxed 59–14 by Pitt. Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s offensive line has proven to be real and spectacular, bulldozing defenses to the tune of 336 rushing YPG. Note this game is being played at a neutral site in Cincinnati, not at Nippert Stadium.
No leanage
26. Indiana -44.5 Western Kentucky (60.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Indiana -42
Vegas Implied Score – Indiana 52.5 Western Kentucky 8.0
This line is understandably a bit out of control given that the Toppers have lost their first two games by a combined 119–34. Heading to Indiana will give WKU a nice payday, but it’s more than reasonable to expect a senseless slaughter. Will Indiana win by 45 or more? Who knows.
No leanage
27. Duke -10.5 Stanford (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Duke -10
Vegas Implied Score – Duke 30.5 Stanford 20.0
Stanford is making a long trip to face the feisty Blue Devils, who’ve taken down a pair of decent opponents (Tulane, Illinois) to start the campaign 2–0. They’re getting nice balance on offense behind star RB Nate Sheppard and QB Walker Eget, who’s yet to throw an INT. The good news for Stanford is that the offense looks better under starting QB Davis Warren, and the defense is allowing a mere 84 YPG on the ground — and don’t forget those stats include an event against YOUR Miami Hurricanes. Prefer the dog, but not biting yet.
Update
Lean – Stanford +10 -106
+10 is consensus. You can find a +10.5 if you dig deep, but most +10.5s have extra juice attached.
Posted 4:45pm Sept 18
28. Baylor -17.5 Louisiana Tech (53.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Baylor -16
Vegas Implied Score – Baylor 35.5 Louisiana Tech 18.0
Not a game we’ll get involved with this week. This is the second of back‑to‑back road games for Louisiana Tech (LSU), and they’re a much better team at home. Baylor has Big 12 play up next (Colorado). Spread and total look about right.
No leanage
29. Liberty -14.5 Ball St (49.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Liberty -16
Vegas Implied Score – Liberty 32.0 Ball St 17.5
The Flames gave James Madison a good fight on the road in their opener but struggled mightily with Gardner‑Webb last week, winning by the slimmest of margins — 24‑23 as 28‑point favorites. Ball St was demolished by Ohio St as expected in Week 1 but looked better last time out in their win over Stony Brook. Yep, that’s an FCS team. The Cardinals showed more life in that event, but we still view them as a MAC bottom‑feeder. Liberty plays Coastal Carolina next week — HC Jamey Chadwell’s former team.
No leanage
30. SOUTH CAROLINA -3.5 Mississippi St (58.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – South Carolina -4
Vegas Implied Score – South Carolina 31.0 Mississippi St 27.5
Lean – South Carolina -3.5 -115
SEE FULL PAGE GAME WRITEUP
31. Appalachian St -17.5 Charlotte (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Appalachian St -17
Vegas Implied Score – Appalachian St 35.5 Charlotte 16.0
App State is feeling their oats after taking down the ARRRR Pirates of East Carolina in an upset victory last week that pleased MEGALOCKS NATION, and they definitely look good on offense behind QB Malachi Singleton. Charlotte is 0–2, but it should be noted that they’re better on both sides of the football this year after enduring a disgusting 2025 campaign. A sprinkle of early SHARP ACTION came in on the dog.
No leanage
32. FAU -7 Florida International (62.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – FAU -7
Vegas Implied Score – FAU 34.75 Florida International 27.75
Both teams are looking good heading into another edition of the SHULA BOWL. FAU just finished wiping the floor with Navy and has one of the most potent THROW GAMES in the nation. The defense is gross. FIU is a more balanced team and a contender in the wide‑open CUSA, but can they keep up with the firepower of the Owls? Line looks about right.
No leanage
33. Old Dominion -3 East Carolina (49)………..MEGALOCKS line – ODU -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Old Dominion 26.0 East Carolina 23.0
We’re lower than market on both of these squads, and that makes it a tricky game to assess. Old Dominion didn’t show up against the hated Virginia Tech Hokies last week and really appears to be missing Colton Joseph at QB. The Monarchs have the critically important game with James Madison next week, which will go a long way toward deciding who wins the Sun Belt East. The ARRRR Pirates of East Carolina also appear to be missing their former QB in Katin Houser, and the defense has allowed 75 points in two games. We prefer the underdog in this tilt but don’t think we’ll get to the window.
No leanage
And of course…..Here’s the write-up in Pirate Speak.
ARRRR, mateys! We be lower than the market on both these scallywag crews, makin’ this a tricky chart to read on the ol’ betting map. Old Dominion didn’t bother showin’ up against the hated Hokies o’ Virginia Tech last week, and they be sorely missin’ their helm‑master Colton Joseph at QB. The Monarchs be starin’ down a critically important clash with James Madison next week — a battle that’ll go a long way toward decidin’ who claims the Sun Belt East treasure chest. As for the ARRRR Pirates o’ East Carolina, they be missin’ their former signal‑caller Katin Houser, and their leaky defense has surrendered 75 blasted points in just two voyages. We be leanin’ toward the underdog in this salty tilt, but we don’t reckon we’ll be sailin’ to the window to place a wager. ARRRR.
34. Marshall -3.5 Missouri St (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Marshall -5
Vegas Implied Score – Marshall 27.5 Missouri St 24.0
Tough game to call as Marshall’s star QB Carlos Del Rio‑Wilson is questionable due to a shoulder and/or collarbone injury suffered in last week’s win over MTSU. The line clearly looks to us like he’s not playing, as we’ve got the fair number at well over a TD with a healthy Del Rio‑Wilson under center. Expect him to miss the game, as the Herd have an FCS turd up next and then the epic clash with James Madison on Oct. 3. Marshall would love to avenge last year’s home defeat at the hands of the Bears, but it won’t be easy with a backup QB. Missouri St smashed something called Lindenwood last week 48–14.
No leanage
35. Florida -2.5 Auburn (52.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Florida 27.5 Auburn 25.0
We can’t wait for this one as two new head coaches and a pair of legendary SEC programs go head‑to‑head in an early‑season SEC tilt. The handicap is tricky, as the Gators have looked really good vs soft competition at home (Florida Atlantic, Campbell) and now travel to one of the toughest road venues in the conference. Auburn whooped Southern Miss last week but struggled in the opener vs Baylor. The Tigers have allowed six sacks thus far but have only surrendered a total of 24 points.
No leanage
36. Western Michigan -9.5 Rice (43.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Western Michigan -8
Vegas Implied Score – Western Michigan 26.5 Rice 17.0
We like Rice to keep this one within the number for a few reasons. They ran the ball 70 times for a massive 458 yards in their opener against Houston Christian. Last week against Notre Dame, things got ugly early—their offense had no chance against a national contender in a 52-0 blowout. Now, Rice returns home to face a Western Michigan squad making a long trip down to Houston—right before an epic showdown next week against Boise State. WMU needs to run the ball to be effective, but Rice’s run defense was a quiet bright spot last week. They held Notre Dame to just 118 rushing yards with a long of 15, despite being behind the entire game. Expect a low-scoring, physical SNOT BUBBLER where Rice grinds it out to stay inside the spread. HOOT HOOT.
Lean – Rice +9.5 -108
-9.5 is the clear consensus. We don’t think consensus will move to +10, but could be wrong.
Posted 3:25pm Sept 17
37. Connecticut -3.0 Southern Miss (54.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Connecticut -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Connecticut 28.75 Southern Miss 25.75
Extremely tough game to call as the Huskies make a long trip to face a rebuilding Southern Miss squad. In fact, both teams will be trying to find their footing for at least the short term. UConn stubbed their toe at home vs Maryland last time out, which was understandable, and we don’t know what to make of Southern Miss at press time after smoking the Alcorn St Banjo Choir and getting drilled by Auburn.
No leanage
38. Nevada -3.5 MTSU (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Nevada -3
Vegas Implied Score – Nevada 27.0 MTSU 23.5
Nevada got us to the window in ROCK STAR fashion in their opening‑week blowout win over WKU, but they stubbed their toe in Week 2 vs the FCS champs from Montana St. It didn’t help that they turned it over four times and played without starting QB Carter Jones. MTSU is also 1–1 and has looked pretty good under emerging dual‑threat QB Roman Gagliano. Nevada is making a 2,000‑mile trip to Murfreesboro and will look to avenge last year’s home loss to the Blue Raiders. The line has dropped from +6, and a lot of that has to do with the uncertainty around Jones, who’s nursing a sore arm and/or elbow. We can’t see the line dropping much more, so we’ll see if Jones practices this week. Maybe we get a wee bit more value on the dog if it looks like he’s a go. In any case, we prefer the dog.
No leanage
39. UCF -17.5 Georgia St (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – UCF -17
Vegas Implied Score – UCF 34.0 Georgia St 16.5
The Panthers are off to a great 2–0 start after taking down the defending Sun Belt champs from Kennesaw St, but now face their biggest challenge yet by far — traveling to face a Power 4 team in UCF, who can be a nasty bunch on their home field. We prefer the underdog, but what’s keeping us on the sidelines for now is the UCF/Pitt weather conditions last week that made the game a disgusting slog in the second half (12–7 final, Pitt wins). We think UCF will show out much better vs Georgia St in ideal conditions, but as if we needed more uncertainty, the Knights will be rolling with a backup QB. The good news is that Keyone Jenkins is a very talented specimen who brings less mobility to the table, but much more talent in the THROW GAME.
No leanage
40. Jacksonville St -3.5 Georgia Southern (52.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Jacksonville St -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Jacksonville St 28.0 Georgia Southern 24.5
Jax State just went through a 4‑OT MEAT GRINDER at Ohio and came out on the short end of the stick. We like their prospects in CUSA action, but they’ve gotta be licking their wounds after that tough loss. Georgia Southern is a work in progress, but it’s worth noting that they covered on the road vs Clemson last week.
No leanage
41. SOUTH ALABAMA -5.5 Ohio (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – South Alabama -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – South Alabama 28.5 Ohio 23.0
We’ll roll with South Alabama in this one, as we’ve got several factors working for us that should help us get to the window. Of course, whenever a MAC team is involved, you never know. South Alabama narrowly missed upsetting Tulane on the road last week, and they outgained the Green Wave while holding the ball for almost 38 minutes. In fact, the Jags lead the country in time of possession. QB Bishop Davenport is playing his best football, hasn’t thrown an INT, and has only been sacked twice.
Ohio is coming off a 15‑round, 4‑OT SNOT BUBBLER with Jacksonville St in which they escaped with a two‑point win but lost a lot of bodies to injury, including their top two QBs. Their third‑stringer, Levi Davis, led the win in OT, but he’s a true freshman and this would be a tough spot for him. #1 RB Duncan Brune also left that game with an injury. We think Ohio will roll with Davis given that they have an automatic win next week vs something known as Stonehill, followed by MAC play. Surely you’ll want to enter conference play with one of your top two QBs, and playing Davis here makes sense.
Whatever the case may be, we think the Jags can win by a TD or more. Also note that Ohio is making a long trip down to Mobile, and South Alabama will be looking to avenge the seven‑point loss suffered in Athens back in 2024.
Official play – South Alabama -5.5 -109
-5.5 is consensus and listed virtually everywhere.
Sent 3:30pm Sept 15
42. Notre Dame -29.5 Michigan St (52.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Notre Dame -27
Vegas Implied Score – Notre Dame 41.0 Michigan St 11.5
Fade Notre Dame? Haaaaaaaaa. <Falls off chair laughing>. The line looks a bit too rich for our liking given how Michigan St has looked so far, but Notre Dame is a major National Championship contender and we’re not standing in their way in this one.
43. LSU -3 Ole Miss (58.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – LSU -1
Vegas Implied Score – LSU 30.75 Ole Miss 27.75
Official pick – OLE MISS +3
SEE FULL PAGE GAME ANALYSIS
44. Oklahoma -21.5 New Mexico (45.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma -20
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma 33.5 New Mexico 12.0
The implied projected score looks about right, as New Mexico is gonna have trouble scoring on that nasty Oklahoma defense that shut out UTEP and allowed 17 to Michigan (7 of those points were gift‑wrapped). The New Mexico defense should hold up fine, especially vs the run, and they’ve booked eight sacks in two games vs a pair of slugs (Central Michigan, Mercyhurst). Oklahoma is in a nasty scheduling spot with a road trip to Georgia up next. Monumental rise in class for the Lobos, who need to hang around early to be heard late.
Lean – New Mexico +21.5
+21.5 is the clear consensus.
Posted 4:50pm Sept 18
45. BYU -17.5 Colorado St (52.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – BYU -17
Vegas Implied Score – BYU 35.0 Colorado St 17.5
BYU just got the Big 12 conference schedule going in a positive fashion with a 28–17 home win over a solid Arizona squad. You know what you’re getting from the Cougars every week, as they’ll try to make you submit with a punishing run game and sound defensive play. QB Bear Bachmeier has been fantastic through the air (6–0 TD to INT), and true freshman WR LEGEND Glasker has opened a lot of eyes (139 yards, 23.2 per, 2 TD). Colorado St has also looked really good in the opening weeks under ace HC Jim Mora, and boy did they ever hit a home run in the portal with the addition of QB Hauss Hejny (9–1 TD to INT, 124 rush yards in two games). The Rams just might be scrappy enough to keep this interesting for a while. On the short list for further review on Friday AM.
No leanage
46. Virginia Tech -3 Maryland (53.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Virginia Tech -3
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia Tech 28.25 Maryland 25.25
Virginia Tech has scored 117 points in their first two wins against outmatched opposition (VMI, Old Dominion) and have looked very balanced on offense. The defense has been fine, and note that the Hokies lead the nation in sacks in the early going (12) after having serious PENETRATION issues in 2025 (19 sacks). Maryland has also started 2–0 with a soft schedule, and they’ve been potent on offense and stout vs the run (39 YPG, #4 FBS). It’s a non‑conference affair, and there’s some bad blood between these two outfits given their proximity and the sharing of a recruiting hotbed.
No leanage
47. Virginia -10.5 West Virginia (53.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Virginia -9
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia 32.0 West Virginia 21.5
This spread looks a bit rich—especially for a neutral-site matchup in Charlotte—but there is a real chance Virginia is legitimately good. They absolutely steamrolled NC State in their opener and look dominant along both lines of scrimmage, making them a dangerous team to fade. On the other side, West Virginia jumped out to a 24-0 lead against Coastal Carolina in their opener, but let MEGALOCKS subscribers down in the second half when their offense completely stalled out to miss the cover. WVU’s offense runs hot and cold; if they go cold for too long against these Hoos, they’re going to be in real trouble.
No leanage
48. Northwestern -3.5 Colorado (48)………..MEGALOCKS line – Northwestern -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Northwestern 25.75 Colorado 22.25
This is one of the toughest games to handicap on the board. Northwestern is coming off a bye and has only played one game so far — a 34–18 win over FCS foe South Dakota St. Colorado upset Georgia Tech in what feels like a month ago in their first outing and then rolled vs FCS turd Weber St last week.
No leanage
49. Tennessee -35.5 Kennesaw St (59.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Tennessee -33.5
Vegas Implied Score – Tennessee 47.5 Kennesaw St 12.0
The Volunteers just might be a SURPRISE PACKAGE in the SEC, although it’s tough to tell after smoking Georgia Tech and something known as Furman. They’ve also got an epic home clash with Texas on deck. The defending Sun Belt champs from Kennesaw St have looked like DEATH WARMED OVER thus far, but this is a lot of points.
No leanage
50. Texas -30 UTSA (56.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Texas -28
Vegas Implied Score – Texas 43.25 UTSA 13.25
Texas is in a tricky scheduling spot as they’re coming off the amazing comeback win over Ohio St and have the SEC opener up next (at Tennessee). UTSA is coming off a nice win of their own at Texas St, but they were outplayed and the beneficiary of a +3 turnover margin. The Bobcats ran at will vs UTSA (289 yards, 5.8 YPC), and that means Texas will be able to do whatever they want on offense and score OODLES of points — if they’re adequately motivated to do so. The last three similar spots for UTSA? They didn’t exactly play their best football — 2025 lost at Texas A&M 42–24, 2024 lost at Texas 56–7, 2023 lost at Tennessee 45–14. Dog or pass, and we’ll take a seat for now.
No leanage
51. Louisiana -7.5 UAB (56.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Louisiana -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana 32.0 UAB 24.5
UAB looked pretty good in their opener at Illinois as they outgained the Illini on their home field, but they gift‑wrapped too many points. The Blazers looked very mediocre in a home win over the corpse of ULM last week, so we don’t know what to think of these guys right now. We’re high on the Cajuns’ chances in the Sun Belt, and they make the long trip back from USC after giving the Trojans a good battle. Nothing for now, but would have to take another look if a −7 became available.
No leanage
52. TCU -20.5 Arkansas St (55.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – TCU -20
Vegas Implied Score – TCU 38.0 Arkansas St 17.5
Not a game we’re likely to get involved with, as the spread and total look about right and it’s tough to know what to make of TCU. They were mediocre in the opening‑week loss to UNC, but looked a lot better last game when they wiped the floor with Grambling St.
No leanage
53. San Diego St -2.5 James Madison (46.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – San Diego St 24.5 James Madison 22.0
James Madison makes their first ever trip out to the communist outpost of California, and not only is it a long haul, but they’ve also got a critical conference road game at Old Dominion next week. That being said, they’re the better team in our estimation, and keep your eye on QB Cam Coleman, who might be just what the offense needs. JMU is allowing a mere 89 YPG on the ground thus far, and San Diego St has no ability to move the ball through the air. We’ll wait a bit to see if a +3 pops up.
No leanage
54. Arizona -34.5 Northern Illinois (49.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Arizona -35
Vegas Implied Score – Arizona 42.0 Northern Illinois 7.5
Northern Illinois looks like a disgusting mess so far, and they deserve it for leaving our beloved MAC. Just kidding. Not really. Arizona is coming off a tough conference loss at BYU and will probably just wanna get through this game with a comfortable win. That’ll happen, but it’s tough to say if they’ll win by 5 TD+.
No leanage
55. North Dakota St -28 Sacramento St (53.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – North Dakota St -28
Vegas Implied Score – North Dakota St 40.75 Sacramento St 12.75
The market may have finally caught up with what dedicated MEGALOCKS junkies have known for a while — Sacramento State is a TIRE FIRE. That said, the line looks about right, and the Bison have a bye on deck, and we’ve gotta think they’ll refrain from stepping on the gas. Maybe.
No leanage
56. Fresno St -6.5 San Jose St (49.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Fresno St -7
Vegas Implied Score – Fresno St 28.0 San Jose St 21.5
The Bulldogs got us to the cashier’s window with ease last week when they destroyed Sacramento St, and that was a good sign after they looked so pathetic vs USC. We still wonder about their QB situation. San Jose St is 2-1 and have knocked over a pair of TOMATO CANS (E Michigan, Cal Poly), and they’re getting fine QB play from Luke Dream Weaver (8-1 TD to INT). Note that this is a rivalry game – The BATTLE FOR THE VALLEY.
No leanage
57. UCLA -14.5 Purdue (52.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – UCLA -16
Vegas Implied Score – UCLA 33.5 Purdue 19.0
Purdue’s game totals are 63 and 74 (OT last week), and QB Ryan Browne appears to be HIM, throwing for over 300 yards in both games, and the offense ranks #6 in the nation in tempo. UCLA/SD St was a downer for our UCLA team total last week, as the game was 0–0 at the half thanks in large part to the Bruins barfing all over themselves, but they got things rolling in the second half and scored 28 points. Purdue can’t play defense, and frankly don’t want to play defense.
Lean – Over 53 -108
Consensus is either 52.5 -115 or 53 depending where you look. We’ll go with 53 for record keeping.
Posted 5:27pm Sept 15
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’ll start the season investing 25% more on these plays in comparison to our ‘leans’ or smaller plays. The 25% increased risk size may change during the season as we take stock of how things are going. We’ll typically have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that it’s not one of our favorite plays of the week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards. We’ve used this terminology for over 20 years, so as annoying as the word ‘lean’ may be, we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’. We’ll usually post between 6 and 12 of these plays per week.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.