Week 4 – Oregon at USC
The Game
It doesn’t get much better than this on a Saturday night as Oregon travels to the Coliseum to face USC. The Ducks escaped with a win over Boise St in their opener before getting roasted at Oklahoma St. They enter this one at 2-1 and almost certainly can’t afford another loss if they want to make a serious run this season. USC (4-0) has cruised through a soft schedule with relative ease, although the Trojans did catch a scare against Rutgers last week in a game where they had to travel approximately one-third of the way around the globe to compete. Ooh, this kooky Big Ten!
Who comes out on top in this massive Big Ten clash?
The Details
Oregon -3 USC (61.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Oregon -3.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Oregon 32.25 USC 29.25
Oregon offense vs USC defense
The Ducks put up 34 points and nearly 500 yards against Boise St, but they couldn’t get much going at all against Oklahoma St. We’re not paying any attention to the 84-0 blowout win over Portland St last week, so we’ll say the offense has been good, but very inconsistent so far.
QB Dante Moore is getting a lot of criticism, but he’s been pretty good (69%, 9-0 TD-to-INT ratio). That said, the pressure has definitely gotten to him at times. Oregon allowed just 19 sacks in 15 games last year, but the Ducks have already surrendered seven this season (#15 Big Ten). The running game hasn’t been nearly as explosive either, so clearly the offensive line play has to improve. Thankfully, Oregon has excellent weaponry at WR, RB and TE, even with the injury to WR Jeremiah McClellan.
USC’s defense has been a major disappointment thus far (#54 run defense, #70 pass defense), and the Trojans have recorded just one sack in three of their four games. They did tally five against Fresno St, but USC is playing a lot of very young players in the secondary and has allowed 26 points to San Jose St, 30 to Louisiana, and 35 to Rutgers. Oregon should be able to move the ball effectively with balance.
USC offense vs Oregon defense
USC has been moving the ball effectively on the ground and through the air behind stud QB Jayden Maiava (76%, 12-1 TD-to-INT ratio). RBs Waymond Jordan and King Miller are both averaging over 5 YPC. The Trojans’ THROW GAME weaponry has been good, but it’s still a young group, and note that they’ll be without their top option in WR Trent Mosley, who is also a deadly weapon in the punt return game. Oregon played a very good defensive game against Boise St (274 yards, 4.22 YPP), but the Ducks were torched by Oklahoma St. They’ll need to look a lot more like the team that faced Boise if they want to avoid serious trouble in this matchup. USC will get their shots in, but we expect the Ducks to have a few more stops in this game.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Oregon is 18-3 on the road under HC Dan Lanning (0-1 this year) and 12-7 ATS as a road favorite (0-1 this year).
USC is 24-5 at the Coliseum under HC Lincoln Riley. Riley is 1-2 ATS as a home underdog with the Trojans.
Oregon is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games vs USC.
The Ducks have faced the No. 58 schedule according to the Sagarin ratings, while USC has dealt with the No. 92-ranked docket. Two of Oregon’s opponents (Boise St and Oklahoma St) are better than any team the Trojans have faced thus far.
The weather forecast looks perfect as we approach press time.
Summary
Oregon dominated the boxscore against Boise St, and the final score wasn’t indicative of how well the Ducks played after a slow start. The Oklahoma St game was a total grease fire, that’s for sure. But who knows how good Oklahoma St might be? For those asking, “What has Oregon done to deserve being a 3-point favorite?”, we’d counter with, “What has USC done to avoid being a TD underdog?”
We’ll roll with Oregon, which we still believe is a clear top-10 team in the country. Both offenses should get their points, but Oregon’s defense is more talented. USC has a very young roster, especially on defense, and it’ll be a tough ask to hang with this seasoned Ducks squad with its back against the wall.
Conclusion
Official play – Oregon -3 -108
-3 is consensus
Sent 11:30am Sept 25
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’ll start the season investing 25% more on these plays in comparison to our ‘leans’ or smaller plays. The 25% increased risk size may change during the season as we take stock of how things are going. We’ll typically have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that it’s not one of our favorite plays of the week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards. We’ve used this terminology for over 20 years, so as annoying as the word ‘lean’ may be, we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’. We’ll typically post between 8 and 12 of these plays per week.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.