Week 4 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Let’s get ready for Week 4 action!
Thursday am update – More picks coming Thursday and Friday.
Thursday afternoon update – A few more picks coming including two official/send-out picks by 5pm Friday.
Thursday 4:30pm update – We’ll give it until 5:30 or so waiting on a line move that probably won’t happen but you never know!
Thursday 5:30pm update – That’s it for the week. Best of luck and enjoy the games!
Official plays — Oregon -3, TCU -3 -112
Leans (smaller plays) — California +1.5 -118, Utah -8.5 -105, Toledo -3 -105, Texas/Tennessee UN 55.5 -115, Sam Houston +34.5
Handy index: Quick Takes
Games with the analysis completed are in bold.
Picks are in blue.
- Liberty at Coastal Carolina (Thursday)
- Army at Temple (Friday)
- Navy at UAB (Friday)
- Northwestern at Indiana (Friday)
- Clemson at CALIFORNIA (Friday) (Lean)
- Virginia Tech at Boston College
- UNLV at Akron
- Colorado St at UTSA
- Ball St at Kent St
- San Diego St at Toledo (Lean)
- Illinois at Ohio St
- Colorado at Baylor
- Wake Forest at Louisville
- SAM HOUSTON at Texas Tech (Lean)
- Texas at Tennessee (Lean) (SEE FULL PAGE GAME ANALYSIS)
- South Alabama at Kentucky
- Boise St at Western Michigan
- Houston at Georgia Southern
- UCLA at Maryland
- Notre Dame at Purdue
- Northern Illinois at Georgia St
- Hawaii at Wyoming
- New Mexico at New Mexico St
- Connecticut at Miami Ohio
- UTAH at Iowa St (Lean)
- TCU at UCF (Official play)
- Ole Miss at Florida
- Oklahoma at Georgia
- Iowa at Michigan
- Vanderbilt at Auburn
- USF at Bowling Green
- Nebraska at Michigan St
- Wisconsin at Penn St
- Delaware at Virginia
- James Madison at Old Dominion
- Louisiana at Charlotte
- Central Michigan at Miami
- Kennesaw St at Arkansas St
- Southern Miss at Tulane
- Kansas St at Cincinnati
- South Carolina at Alabama
- Oklahoma St at West Virginia
- Troy at Utah St
- Arizona at Washington St
- Appalachian St at NC State
- OREGON at USC (Official pick) (SEE FULL PAGE GAME ANALYSIS)
- Texas A&M at LSU
- Missouri at Mississippi St
- Tulsa at Arkansas
- FAU at ULM
- Oregon St at UTEP
- Missouri St at SMU
- Massachusetts at Sacramento St
- Rice at Fresno St
- Georgia Tech at Stanford
- Air Force at Nevada
- Minnesota at Washington
1. Liberty -2.5 Coastal Carolina (52.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Liberty -1
Vegas Implied Score – Liberty 27.5 Coastal Carolina 25.0
Liberty has crushed a pair of TOMATO CANS in their last two games (Ball St, Gardner‑Webb) and now travel to Conway, South Carolina to face head coach Jamey Chadwell’s former team in Coastal Carolina. The Chants gave West Virginia a good game in Week 1 — a 31‑24 loss that’s looking better each and every day — but disappointed on the road last week at Delaware. We’ve got these teams really close in our ratings, and note that the starting QBs have combined for a tidy 13‑0 TD‑to‑INT mark thus far in 2026. Last team with the ball wins??
No leanage
2. Army -3 Temple (48.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Army -4
Vegas Implied Score – Army 25.75 Temple 22.75
Army has had an extra week to stew over the agonizing last‑second loss to USF in the conference opener and should be nice and focused for this game, but the bad news is that HOOT HOOT has found a starting QB (by accident?) in Ajani Sheppard, who looked like a combination of Michael Vick and Dan Marino in a 49–48 OT loss to Toledo last week. We’ll take our 1–1 record on Temple Unders and pump the brakes on that for at least a week. Temple has shown they can run the ball on Penn St and Toledo, so they’ll be able to run on Army. Tough call, but we still prefer Army a wee bit.
No leanage
3. Navy -6.5 UAB (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Navy -7
Vegas Implied Score – Navy 29.0 UAB 22.5
The status of Navy’s starting QB Braxton Woodson is up in the air, but the Middies are off a bye week, which should help Woodson get on the field this week. If not, backup QB Jackson Gutierrez showed he’s more than capable of steering the ship with some crafty play in relief vs FAU. UAB has the capability to hang around — they showed good fight vs Illinois in their opener — but they’ve been gashed for 200+ on the ground in each of their last two games, and that’s not ideal heading into a game with Navy.
No leanage
4. Indiana -21.5 Northwestern (49.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Indiana -21
Vegas Implied Score – Indiana 35.5 Northwestern 14.0
The defending champs from Indiana haven’t been tested yet and have outscored the opposition 145–16 thus far. This is their toughest test to date, but we ain’t fading the Hoosiers Train just yet.
No leanage
5. Clemson -1.5 California (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – California -3
Vegas Implied Score – Clemson 26.0 California 24.5
We’ll roll with the home team in this spot as the Golden Bears stay in Berkeley after smashing Wagner last week, and Clemson has to make the 2,500+ mile trip after slithering past UNC. Fun fact: Clemson is DEAD LAST in the ACC in total offense (298 YPG) AND sacks allowed (9). Oh yeah, they also rank #136 in the nation in third‑down conversion rate (20%). Cal ranks #1 in the ACC in pass‑efficiency D (2–5 TD to INT, 51%), has the much better QB, and is on a 17–10 ATS run as a home underdog (0–1 this year, UCLA).
Lean – California +1.5 -118
Consensus is +1.5 -118. We’ve seen as low as +1.5 -115. +1.5 -120 is common. Alternate play is +1 or ML at a cheaper price if you wanna go that way. Whatever you do, shop around as there’s a lot of variety in the spread offerings.
Posted 9:55am Sept 22
6. Virginia Tech -14.5 Boston College (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Virginia Tech -14
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia Tech 32.5 Boston College 18.0
Virginia Tech looks to move to 4–0 under new HC James Franklin, and while you can say they’ve played a soft schedule, the Hokies have looked pretty good on both sides of the football. It’s their second consecutive road game, which is often a wee bit of a concern, and note that the home team is 5–1 ATS in the last six meetings. Boston College has been scrappy so far, but their entire offense runs through dual‑threat QB Mason McKenzie and the surrounding weaponry is a bit lacking.
No leanage
7. UNLV -13.5 Akron (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – UNLV -12
Vegas Implied Score – UNLV 32.0 Akron 18.5
The Rebels have only scored 48 TOTAL POINTS in three games and make an unusual trip out to Akron, but at least they’ve had an extra week to prepare. Akron is a below‑average MAC outfit that isn’t completely useless, and they’ve got at least two QBs who can cause a few problems. Fun fact: UNLV is 1–4 SU vs MAC teams. Dog or pass but we don’t think we’ll get involved unless it hits +14.
No leanage
8. UTSA -12.5 Colorado St (58.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – UTSA -11
Vegas Implied Score – UTSA 35.5 Colorado St 23.0
The big story in this one is the status of Colorado St’s ace dual‑threat QB Hauss Hejny, and it seems very likely he’ll miss this game due to a hamstring issue. No sense rushing him back with the Pac‑12 opener on deck. The good news for Colorado St is that they can run the ball, and UTSA hasn’t been able to slow down the run at all thus far. UTSA’s offense will SCORE the FOOTBALL on the wretched Colorado St defense, but the spread fully reflects the Rams’ QB situation — at least according to our numbers. Fun fact: UTSA failed to score an offensive TD last week (Texas) for the first time in six years.
No leanage
9. Kent St -3.5 Ball St (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Kent St -5
Vegas Implied Score – Kent St 27.0 Ball St 23.5
Tough to know what to make of either of these teams until they get one or two MAC games under their belt. Ball State lost to Ohio St and Liberty by a combined score of 107–18. Kent St fell to Ohio St and South Carolina by a combined tally of 116–3. The only thing that could make this game better is if it gets canceled by Climate Police due to a lightning strike somewhere in Peru (#SaveTheChildren, #SafetyFirst, #GetYour7thFauciDeathBooster) and then rescheduled for a rainy Tuesday night in November.
No leanage
10. Toledo -3 San Diego St (52.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Toledo -3
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo 27.75 San Diego St 24.75
The Rockets escaped with their lives at home vs a scrappy Temple squad last week, but they won’t have to worry about a surprise appearance from a devastating dual‑threat QB vs San Diego St. We’ll roll with the Rockets. San Diego St is making a long trip out to Toledo and has its DEBUT Pac‑12 game up next. The WR corps is seriously banged up, and #1 RB Lucky Sutton will be a game‑time decision. Aztecs’ starting QB Jayden Dengal is NOT good, and he’ll be going up against a solid Toledo secondary. Toledo starting QB John Alan Richter has been lighting it up and gets to face a brutal San Diego St secondary. Toledo is 23–3 SU at home since the start of the 2022 season. San Diego State is 4–9 SU on the road under HC Sean Lewis.
Lean – Toledo – 3 -105
Consensus is -3 -105 to -108 depending where you look. -2.5 -120 to -125 is widely available if you wanna go that route. The super-sharp numbers guys with three ears covered in scales working in a dungeon have the fair line lower, so if you wait, you might be able to get a better number on game day.
Posted 4:55pm Sept 23
11. Ohio St -27.5 Illinois (53.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -25
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 40.5 Illinois 13.0
Ohio St bounced back nicely off their late‑game collapse vs mighty Texas and destroyed Kent St last week — and they can be proud of the fact that they defeated a pair of MAC teams in their first three outings by a combined tally of 115–6. The run game needs to get going, but the defense looks just fine. We’re not impressed by Illinois thus far, although we will say the number looks a bit rich for our liking.
No leanage
12. Baylor -9.5 Colorado (55.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Baylor -10
Vegas Implied Score – Baylor 32.5 Colorado 23.0
The Buffs are hanging on the edge of the cliff right now after getting drilled by Northwestern — and if they can’t find a way to win this game, how do things look going forward? The schedule gets pretty nasty with Exhibit A being the next two contests (Texas Tech, Utah). Colorado has done a decent job running the football so far, but Baylor has been adept at stopping the ground attack. The Bears are looking to avenge the 2024 game at Colorado when they gave up a Hail Mary to end regulation and then lost in OT. Those were good times. We could only play the favorite, but nothing so far.
No leanage
13. Louisville -13.5 Wake Forest (57.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Louisville -12
Vegas Implied Score – Louisville 35.5 Wake Forest 22.0
Wake Forest has been very PLUCKY so far, and the Demon Deacons gave YOUR Miami Hurricanes a tough battle in the second half of last week’s loss. Wake ranks 7th in the ACC in total offense and 13th in total defense (out of 17 teams) as we approach press time. LUA-VUH lost a close one to Ole Miss but has since knocked off SMU and is playing lights-out football on offense. We see a bit of value with the dog, but we’re not stepping in front of the Cardinals train just yet. The INTREPID Phil Steele reminds us that each of the last seven meetings in this series has gone Over the total.
No leanage
14. Texas Tech -35.5 Sam Houston (54.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Texas Tech -33
Vegas Implied Score – Texas Tech 45.0 Sam Houston 9.5
The Red Raiders snuck past the feisty Houston Cougars last week by two points and now get a major breather before continuing with Big 12 action. QB Will Hammond was improved vs the Coogs and moved around a lot better, so hopefully he’ll continue to grow with the offense. Sam Houston hasn’t been as horrible as we thought they’d be and they gave mighty Tulsa a scare earlier this season. Fun facts: Sam Houston is #6 in passing offense and #6 in pass efficiency D; Texas Tech is #87 in pass efficiency D.
Lean – Sam Houston +34.5
+34.5 is listed virtually everywhere
Posted 3:55pm Sept 24
15. Texas -4.5 Tennessee (55.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Texas -5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas 30.0 Tennessee 25.5
SEE FULL PAGE GAME ANALYSIS
Lean Under 55.5 -115
Consensus is 55.5 -115. You can find a better price if you shop around.
Posted 9:40am Sept 24
16. Kentucky -20.5 South Alabama (54.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Kentucky -18.5
Vegas Implied Score – Kentucky 37.5 South Alabama 17.0
Kentucky just SHOCKED the WORLD with a road win over Texas A&M, but this is a nasty scheduling spot as they’ve got an SEC date with South Carolina up next. South Alabama dusted off Ohio and have Sun Belt play on the horizon, but note that starting QB Bishop Davenport was a surprise scratch in that game.
No leanage
17. Boise St -7 Western Michigan (49.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Boise St -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Boise St 28.25 Western Michigan 21.25
We prefer Boise St in this matchup, but “full disclosure,” as the cool kids now say without knowing what it means — we’re below market on both squads. Boise St was outgained by well over 200 yards in their amazing game vs Oregon, gave up over 500 yards at home vs Memphis, and beat an FCS team by 14 last week. Western Michigan got screwed out of a win at Michigan, but that was still an excellent performance. They haven’t looked great since, but this should be an awesome home environment for the Broncos. Tough travel spot for Boise St. Both teams have conference play on deck.
No leanage
18. Houston -18.5 Georgia Southern (54.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Houston -17
Vegas Implied Score – Houston 36.5 Georgia Southern 18.0
Houston gave mighty Texas Tech all they wanted and then some last week but came up painfully short. This is a weird travel spot, and Big 12 play continues next week (UCF). That’s the game they have to be concerned about. Georgia Southern has looked better than anticipated, particularly on defense. Dog or pass, and we’ll have to look at this one again later in the week.
No leanage
19. UCLA -1.5 Maryland (56.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – UCLA -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – UCLA 29.0 Maryland 27.5
Not a game we’ll get involved with this week. UCLA did what we thought they’d do last week and win a shootout with Purdue, and yes, that defense needs some work. Now they have to make the long trip to face Maryland, who disappointed us last week in the loss to Virginia Tech.
No leanage
20. Notre Dame -27.5 Purdue (57.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Notre Dame -25
Vegas Implied Score – Notre Dame 42.5 Purdue 15.0
You know we love that Purdue THROW GAME led by QB Ryan Browne but now they face the best secondary in the country. Oh yeah, and Purdue’s defense is pure STANK. Value on the dog but we won’t bite this week.
No leanage
21. Georgia St -10.5 Northern Illinois (56.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Georgia St -11
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia St 33.5 Northern Illinois 23.0
Georgia St has looked good so far (2-1), with its only loss coming on the road against Power 4 foe UCF, a game in which the Panthers played very well. They’ve been running the ball effectively, although the defense could still use a bit of work. Northern Illinois is 0-3, but two of those losses came in road games at Iowa and Arizona. QB Taron TYGER Dickens is giving the Huskies decent play under center, but they still look like a Mountain West bottom-feeder. Georgia St has the better collection of offensive weapons, and we prefer the Panthers a wee bit.
No leanage
22. Hawaii -3.5 Wyoming (44.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Hawaii -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Hawaii 24.0 Wyoming 20.5
A game that only a mother could love. But we’ll watch if it’s available. Hawaii is the better team and they’re off a bye, but they’re also 4–19 SU on the road under HC Timmy Chang. Wyoming has played a disgusting brand of football so far but gets to come home to the cozy confines of Laramie, where strange things happen.
No leanage
23. New Mexico -11.5 New Mexico St (48.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – New Mexico -13
Vegas Implied Score – New Mexico 30.0 New Mexico St 18.5
Our ratings show a wee bit of value in the favorite, and we love the way New Mexico battled hard for MEGALOCKS junkies last week vs Oklahoma. However, the situation favors the dog in the RIO GRANDE RIVALRY as New Mexico St is at home off a bye week, and they’re 7-3 ATS L10 in the series. Tough call for any HOMBRE to make.
No leanage
24. Miami Ohio -3.5 Connecticut (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Miami Ohio -3
Vegas Implied Score – Miami Ohio 27.5 Connecticut 24.0
Tough scheduling spot for Miami Ohio as it comes off a heartbreaking loss to Cincinnati in the Battle for the VICTORY BELL, with conference play up next. The good news is that the RedHawks are tough at home and appear to have found a legit QB in David McComb. UConn’s new HC Jason Candle is very familiar with MAC country after spending many years at Toledo. The Huskies have crushed a pair of TOMATO CANS (Lafayette and Southern Miss) and got whacked by Maryland. They’re also getting good QB play from Kalieb Osborne.
No leanage
25. Utah -8.5 Iowa St (48.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Utah -10.5
Vegas Implied Score – Utah 28.5 Iowa St 20.0
We’ll take another spin with Utah, as their offense has been one of the most dynamic in the country (518 YPG, #11 FBS) and the defense has been excellent, allowing 8 PPG (!) and just 75 YPG on the ground. Iowa St has been getting insane production from RB Aiden Flora (328 yards, 8.6 YPC, 3 TD), but they don’t have much of a THROW GAME. If Utah shuts down the ground attack it should be GOODNIGHT IRENE. The good news for Iowa St is that the defense has been playing very well, and if they force some turnovers they could hang around. Neither team has played a tough schedule overall, but Iowa St went toe‑to‑toe with Iowa, as is always the case.
Lean – Utah -8.5 -105
-8.5 -105 is consensus. You can find -8 out there at a few places, but some variety of -8.5 is the most common number.
Posted 7:20am Sept 23
26. TCU -3 UCF (48.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – TCU -4
Vegas Implied Score – TCU 25.75 UCF 22.75
UCF has been significantly outgained in each of its last two outings, including last week’s home effort against Georgia St. Backup QB Keyone Jenkins doesn’t provide the same juice to the offense, and we like the way TCU has responded since its loss to UNC in Ireland. The Horned Frogs smashed Grambling St and Arkansas St by a combined score of 94-14 in their last two games, and QB Jaden Craig looks the part. On our short list for additions on Friday.
Official play – TCU -3 -112
Consensus is -3 -110 or -3 -112 depending where you look. -3 -110 is pretty easy to find.
Sent 3:40pm Sept 25
27. Florida -3.5 Ole Miss (59.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Florida -3
Vegas Implied Score – Florida 31.0 Ole Miss 27.5
The Rebels are coming off one of the biggest moments in program history, and no, we’re not talking about the 88,888 STAR MEGALOCKS SEC LATE PHONE RELEASE Ole Miss winner. Now they’ve got to travel to The Swamp to battle a red-hot Florida team that’s coming off a big road win over Auburn. Ole Miss has a superstar QB in Trinidad Chambliss, but the Rebels may be without elite RB Kewan Lacy (shoulder). We think he’ll give it a go, but probably on a limited snap count. Ole Miss’ defense could definitely use some improvement, but keep in mind the Rebels have already faced LUA-VUH and LSU.
Florida counters with one of the nation’s best RBs in Jaden Baugh, a loaded set of THROW GAME weapons, and a QB in Aaron Philo who has looked fantastic. What a job by new OC Buster Faulkner. Will Ole Miss have enough left in the tank to win in one of the toughest road environments in college football? We prefer the Gators, but we’ll wait to see if we can grab a reasonable -3 by 5 p.m. Friday.
No leanage
28. Georgia -13.5 Oklahoma (43.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma -14
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia 28.5 Oklahoma 15.0
The Sooners just escaped with their lives at home vs New Mexico, and they’re having a ton of trouble on offense. Fun fact: Oklahoma is ranked dead last in the SEC in total offense, right behind the rotting corpse of Arkansas. Georgia has destroyed everything in their path and are averaging 253 YPG on the ground. This will be the Dawgs’ toughest challenge so far by a wide margin, but they’re the only side we could back. Nothing for now.
No leanage
29. Michigan -5.5 Iowa (38.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Michigan -4
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan 22.0 Iowa 16.5
Tough game to call as the Wolverines “beat” Western Michigan at home in their opener and were life and death vs UTEP last week before the second half began. The offense hasn’t been clicking, and the RB room looks pretty dismal compared to almost all of recorded history — at least so far. Iowa blew out a pair of turds and struggled to beat Iowa St. They seem to have a bit more life on offense. Our projected total came out to 37 so maybe the best look is the Under. We hate to use the same line as last week, but it was such a hit, why not use it again — First team to 5 points wins.
No leanage
30. Auburn -9.5 Vanderbilt (55.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Auburn -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – Auburn 32.5 Vanderbilt 23.0
We’ve got this one lined right at the number. We’re not completely sold on this Auburn REBOOT so far, but we also know Vanderbilt is lucky to be 3–0. The good news is that the Commodores are rolling with highly‑regarded freshman QB Jared Curtis, and that gives them more upside.
No leanage
31. USF -17.5 Bowling Green (48.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – South Florida -20
Vegas Implied Score – USF 33.0 Bowling Green 15.5
We could only look to the undefeated road favorite in South Florida (3-0), even though the Bulls have played a soft schedule and needed a miracle to beat Army in Week 2. Bowling Green is playing like an absolute HEAP of disgusting trash and simply can’t be backed right now. Lay it or pass. We’ll do a bit more digging before making a final call on USF. That said, the Bulls do face a quirky travel spot in this one and have a tough American Conference matchup with the feisty Temple Owls on deck.
No leanage
32. Nebraska -5.5 Michigan St (48.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Nebraska -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Nebraska 27.0 Michigan St 21.5
We were originally interested in the CORN side of this game because they’ve got the much more potent collection of offensive playmakers, but Michigan St has been very scrappy against Notre Dame (!) and Toledo, two teams that are much better than anyone Nebraska has faced so far. Michigan St has won three straight home games against the Huskers. Nebraska is 4-10 SU on the road under HC Matt Rhule.
No leanage
33. Penn St -9.5 Wisconsin (44.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Penn St -10
Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 27.0 Wisconsin 17.5
Penn St has been crushing everything in their path. While the schedule has been a cakewalk, they’ve dismantled the opposition by a combined score of 127–22. The defense is playing lights out, QB Rocco Becht has yet to throw an interception, and the Nittany Lions have covered six straight in the series against Wisconsin. Meanwhile, the Badgers are playing some inspired football and gave Notre Dame a tough battle, despite what the final score indicated.
No leanage
34. Virginia -20.5 Delaware (52.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Virginia -19
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia 36.5 Delaware 16.0
Virginia got beat at their own game last week as West Virginia took it to them with a more physical brand of football. They should be able to win this one comfortably, but Delaware gave Wake Forest a good game earlier in the year. Delaware is coming off a home win over Coastal Carolina. Both squads have important games up next as Virginia travels to Florida St and the Blue Hens play one of the best teams in their conference next week in the Liberty Flames. Tough call, but could only back the dog at this price point.
No leanage
35. James Madison -6.5 Old Dominion (44.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – James Madison -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – James Madison 25.5 Old Dominion 19.0
This might be an elimination game in the Sun Belt East, and James Madison comes into it in good form after knocking off San Diego St on the road to improve to 3-0. QB Cam Coleman looks like a keeper, and the defense has been very good, though perhaps not quite dominant. ODU has dropped two straight and looked brutal on offense (dead last in the Sun Belt in total offense), but the good news is that the defense has been as stout as advertised (#21 FBS in yards per play allowed). James Madison dismantled the Monarchs in Harrisonburg last year (63-27), so you could argue that ODU has revenge on its mind. Monarchs HC Ricky Rahne is 8-5-1 ATS as a home underdog. We prefer the road favorite, but haven’t gotten to the window just yet.
No leanage
36. Louisiana -10.5 Charlotte (49.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Louisiana -10
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana 30.0 Charlotte 19.5
We’re almost ready to back to the 49ers as they’re a much-improved team on both sides of the football. You couldn’t get much worse than last year, but it’s nice to see some GREEN SHOOTS of growth from Charlotte. Louisiana has a massive game with Arkansas St next week that’ll set the tone for Sun Belt West Division action.
No leanage
37. Miami -41.5 Central Michigan (53.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Miami -38.5
Vegas Implied Score – Miami 47.5 Central Michigan 6.0
YOUR Miami Hurricanes have navigated a soft schedule very well so far although the injuries are starting to pile up. They get another softie this week as FIRE UP CHIPS come to town. Central Michigan is catching a few too many points but their offense is completely one-dimensional (run, run, run again; last FBS in passing). Miami QB Darian Mensah has 11 TD passes vs 8 (!) incompletions thru three games. Best look on this one might be the Under.
No leanage
38. Arkansas St -5.5 Kennesaw St (53.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Arkansas St -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Arkansas St 29.5 Kennesaw St 24.0
We prefer the Red Wolves in this game, but they’ve got a massive showdown vs Louisiana next week and QB Trey Owens hasn’t looked as good as we’d hoped. Kennesaw St is a middling CUSA outfit, but they’re not catching enough points to interest us this week.
No leanage
39. Tulane -18.5 Southern Miss (52.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Tulane -19.5
Vegas Implied Score – Tulane 35.5 Southern Miss 17.0
Dedicated MEGALOCKS junkies know we’re not fans of this year’s Tulane squad, but we can’t deny they’re playing a horrible Southern Miss outfit that gave up over 600 yards of offense vs Auburn and just got smoked by UConn at home. Tulane HC Will Hall faces his former team.
No leanage
40. Kansas St -6.5 Cincinnati (55.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Kansas St -7
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas St 31.0 Cincinnati 24.5
We’re below market on both of these squads, although we have to admit Kansas St has looked good in the early stages of the season. The Wildcats are averaging a robust 269 YPG on the ground (#9 FBS), and QB Avery Johnson has looked like his best self through the air (70%, 6-2 TD-to-INT ratio; 253 rushing yards, 3 TDs), although the competition has been relatively weak. Cincinnati authored an epic comeback win over Miami (OH) last week, has also faced a soft schedule, and can run the football too (270 YPG, #8 FBS). Kansas St has been much stingier on defense, and we think the Wildcats will win this one. We just need to think about laying the lumber.
No leanage
41. Alabama -12.5 South Carolina (53.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Alabama -13.5
Vegas Implied Score – Alabama 33.0 South Carolina 20.5
South Carolina has covered the spread in each of the last five meetings and came within one score of winning in each of the last two years. The Cocks are in desperation mode after losing at home to Mississippi State and need a strong performance in this one. QB LaNorris Sellers has been MEH, but the ground game has been good. The problem is that the Tide have been stout vs the run (53 YPG, #5 FBS), and we don’t see South Carolina having as much success through the air as Florida State did last week. Alabama’s offense is still a work in progress with starting QB Keelon Russell under center, but the Tide has still managed to put up 143 points in three games. Scary, yo.
No leanage
42. West Virginia -1.5 Oklahoma St (59.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – West Virginia -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – West Virginia 30.5 Oklahoma St 29.0
West BY GOD Virginia comes home with a record of 3–0 after dismantling Virginia and now faces the GIANT KILLERS from Oklahoma St, who took down mighty Oregon earlier this year whilst completely dominating them in the box score. Oklahoma St held the Ducks to 90 rushing yards, so you’ve gotta think they can at least slow down the potent Mountaineers’ ground game. West Virginia gave up 373 passing yards vs Coastal Carolina and now must face ace QB Drew Mestemaker. Our ratings say WV, the matchup says Oklahoma St. The Cowboys have covered in each of the last five meetings.
No leanage
43. Utah St -3 Troy (47.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Utah St -3
Vegas Implied Score – Utah St 25.25 Troy 22.25
It’s now or never for Utah St as its season is teetering on the ABYSS. The Aggies are 0-3, and with a road trip to Boise St up next (#AutomaticLoss), they’ll be staring at 0-5 in a few weeks if they can’t get by Troy this weekend. Utah St gave Washington a good battle on the road a few weeks ago, but the Aggies are getting rough QB play and have scored only 31 points in three games. At least you can say they’ve faced Washington and Utah. Troy gave Missouri all it could handle on the road last week and actually outgained the Tigers by 93 yards. The Trojans have the better QB and the sturdier defense, but this is a tough travel spot.
No leanage
44. Arizona -10.5 Washington St (48.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Arizona -12
Vegas Implied Score – Arizona 29.5 Washington St 19.0
Arizona makes the quirky trip to Pullman this week for a battle with old Pac-12 rival Washington St. The Wildcats have failed to cover the spread in each of their first three games and, for those keeping score at home, that leaves HC Brent Brennan with a 10-18 ATS record since taking over in Tucson. Arizona also has Big 12 play on deck. Washington St got pulverized on the stat sheet in road losses to Washington and Kansas St, but the Cougars did whoop something called Duquesne last week while rushing for more than 300 yards. As the great Brad Powers would say, we need a legitimate data point or two on the Cougars before drawing any firm conclusions.
No leanage
45. NC State -14.5 Appalachian St (55.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – NC State -13
Vegas Implied Score – NC State 35.0 Appalachian St 20.5
We’ve got the game lined a bit lower than the market, but it’s hard to know how the Pack will respond after losing in impossible fashion to Vanderbilt last week. They’ve also got a big showdown with LUA-VUH on deck. App State has been cruising along at 3-0, but the Mountaineers have faced a weak schedule and had a surprisingly tough time running the ball against Charlotte last week. We prefer the dog in a battle between in-state foes, and it’s on the short list. We just haven’t made a final call yet.
No leanage
46. Oregon -3 USC (62.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Oregon -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon 32.25 USC 29.25
Official play – Oregon -3 -108
Sent 11:30am Sept 25
SEE FULL PAGE GAME ANALYSIS
47. LSU -8.5 Texas A&M (52.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – LSU -8
Vegas Implied Score – LSU 30.5 Texas A&M 22.0
LSU comes home after an emotional loss to Ole Miss in which they gave 100% but came up short. They’ll be without star TE Trey’Dez Green (leading receiver) for the foreseeable future, and QB Sam Leavitt has a mediocre 3–5 TD‑to‑INT ratio. The good news is that they can still play defense, and they’re not facing Trinidad Chambliss — they’re facing Marcel Reed and an Aggies team that just got drilled at home by Kentucky. Massive game for both teams, as a second SEC loss would throw their 2026 editions into the DUSTBIN of HISTORY.
No leanage
48. Mississippi St -6.5 Missouri (58.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Mississippi St -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Mississippi St 32.5 Missouri 26.0
Mississippi St continues to roll under star QB Kamario Taylor, and who knows what their ceiling might be in the SEC. Missouri was on our TOP SECRET watch list before last week’s brutal game vs Troy, in which they were outgained 323–230 at home. They’re not in the best form to tackle a burgeoning JUGGERNAUT, but we’ll see what happens. Line looks about right.
No leanage
49. Arkansas -6.5 Tulsa (52.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Arkansas -4.5
Vegas Implied Score – Arkansas 29.5 Tulsa 23.0
WOO PIG is in a world of hurt right now after getting plastered by Utah and Georgia, but let’s be fair — both of those teams could end up participating in the CFP. Arkansas went with AJ Hill at QB for a while vs Georgia, but not even Henry Hill or Benny Hill could’ve helped them in that game. Tulsa is 3–0 and have taken down Oklahoma State already this year. Their last two games weren’t as impressive as they slithered past Sam Houston and beat East Texas A&M 42–0 as 41‑point favorites. If there’s any pride in the WOO PIG locker room, we’ll get their best effort vs Tulsa. Not sure how good that’ll be tho.
No leanage
50. FAU -13.5 ULM (57.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – FAU -12
Vegas Implied Score – FAU 35.5 ULM 22.0
Florida Atlantic comes off a 16–10 SHULA BOWL win over FIU, a game in which their passing game mysteriously disappeared. The defense came to play tho. ULM just lost to FCS foe SE Louisiana, but they won the yardage battle 511–279. New starting QB Austin Carlisle has some wheels and could give the Owls a few problems. ULM is 2–5 ATS as a home dog under HC Bryant Vincent. FAU is 1–6 SU on the road under HC Zach Kittley.
No leanage
51. Oregon St -10.5 UTEP (55.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Oregon St -12.5
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon St 33.0 UTEP 22.5
The Beavers have looked better than expected so far this year, and don’t forget their two losses came against Houston and Texas Tech. QB Braden Atkinson is lighting up the airwaves, but the stop unit is still a work in progress. UTEP has had to deal with road games at Oklahoma and Michigan (!), but they played very well for a half in the Big House before getting smoked. Weird travel spot for Oregon St, and note they’ve got Pac‑12 play up next.
No leanage
52. SMU -34.5 Missouri St (58.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – SMU -35
Vegas Implied Score – SMU 46.5 Missouri St 12.0
The Mustangs lost a tough one to LUA‑VUH last week and are now in a tough spot in the ACC pecking order. It’s tough to gauge the motivation for this game as they’ve got another conference game on deck (BC), but they’ve got the firepower to do some serious damage vs the Bears.
No leanage
53. Massachusetts -5.5 Sacramento St (49.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Massachusetts -7
Vegas Implied Score – Massachusetts 27.5 Sacramento St 22.0
Don’t look now but UMass is 3-0 and have already cashed for dedicated MEGALOCKS Season Win Total Club. They’re the much better team in this event but note that the Minutemen’s last road win came back in 2023 (Army) and this is a long trip for our buddies from Amherst. Sacramento St will be JACKED for the MAC home opener but have only scored 17/3/10 vs FBS opposition.
No leanage
54. Fresno St -13.5 Rice (44.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Fresno St -14
Vegas Implied Score – Fresno St 29.0 Rice 15.5
Rice got us the money last week thanks to some SWEET backdoor ACTION in the dying seconds, but they’re very limited on offense and have to make the long trip out to Fresno. The Bulldogs grinded out a win over San Jose St last week, and we’re not super pumped about laying double digits with them unless they’re facing Sacramento State (#HornetsCatchingStrays).
No leanage
55. Georgia Tech -3.5 Stanford (47.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Georgia Tech -5
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia Tech 25.5 Stanford 22.0
Stanford laid an egg last week off extended rest, much to the chagrin of MEGALOCKS subscribers, but Georgia Tech has to make a long trip out to California — and don’t forget they lost to Colorado. Tough scene, yo.
No leanage
56. Air Force -5.5 Nevada (49.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Air Force -4
Vegas Implied Score – Air Force 27.5 Nevada 22.0
Big game for the FLYBOYS, as they’ve already dropped a conference game to North Dakota State. Air Force is off a bye and has covered the last three meetings. Nevada has been playing an improved brand of football and is allowing 3.9 YPC through three games.
No leanage
57. Washington -9.5 Minnesota (45.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Washington -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – Washington 27.5 Minnesota 18.0
We could only look at the dog in this spot, as both teams have been fairly MILQUETOAST to start the season and the Huskies’ RB room has been absolutely decimated with injuries. The good news is that QB Demond Williams is doing good work through the air, and Minnesota hasn’t picked off a pass yet this season. The Golden Gophers SHAT the BED in both West Coast trips last year (Oregon, California). Dog or pass, but nothing yet for us.
No leanage.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’ll start the season investing 25% more on these plays in comparison to our ‘leans’ or smaller plays. The 25% increased risk size may change during the season as we take stock of how things are going. We’ll typically have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that it’s not one of our favorite plays of the week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards. We’ve used this terminology for over 20 years, so as annoying as the word ‘lean’ may be, we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’. We’ll usually post between 6 and 12 of these plays per week.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.