Week 4 – Texas at Tennessee
The Game
Yes, guy.
The Details
Texas -4.5 Tennessee (55.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Texas -5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Texas 30.0 Tennessee 25.5
Texas offense vs Tennessee defense
The Longhorns hung 59 points on Texas St and 30 on UTSA, but they struggled mightily against Ohio St until that magical fourth quarter. QB Arch Manning has been decent (62%, 7-2 TD-to-INT ratio), but he hasn’t stretched the field consistently and still doesn’t have a rushing TD after scoring 10 last year despite possessing impressive wheels. The top two RBs, Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown, are both averaging under five yards per carry, and Texas would love to see them start ripping off more explosive runs.
Tennessee has faced a soft schedule, but the Vols have yielded just 42 points in three games and allowed only one TD pass all season (4.7 yards per attempt, No. 7 nationally). They have also recorded 13 sacks (#2 SEC), although Texas has surrendered only four sacks through three games. We expect Texas to have some success grinding out drives with the Smothers-Brown tandem and Arch’s legs, but don’t expect the THROW GAME to go bananas.
Tennessee offense vs Texas defense
One of the most intriguing matchups on Saturday’s card will be the battle between Tennessee true freshman QB Faizon Brandon and the excellent Texas stop unit. Brandon has looked good so far (6-0 TD-to-INT ratio, 137 rushing yards, 3 TDs), but this Longhorns defense has been nasty. Texas isn’t giving up much on the ground (109 YPG) and has held two of its three opponents under 10 points. Ohio St managed to cobble together 23 points, but many of those came courtesy of a litany of Texas mistakes that gifted the Buckeyes favourable field position and easy scoring opportunities. Also note that star DE Colin Simmons appears healthy and ready to roll.
Tennessee has been absolutely devastating on the ground thus far (299 YPG, #4 FBS, trailing only the three service academies), and you know the Vols will try to lean heavily on the rushing attack to keep Brandon out of third-and-long situations. We expect Tennessee to find some success on the ground, but it’s going to be tough sledding at times. At some point, the Vols will likely need Brandon to connect on a few deep shots if they want to win this game.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Tennessee HC Josh Heupel is 31-7 SU at home with the Vols, but just 3-4 ATS as a home dog.
Texas HC Steve Sarkisian is 7-10 ATS as a road favorite with the Longhorns, and recall that Texas struggled in conference play on the road last year. Can they turn the tide on that concerning trend this week?
The weather forecast looks perfect as we approach press time.
Summary
We think both teams will be challenged to hit their implied team total.
Conclusion
Lean – Under 55.5 -115
55.5 -115 is consensus. You can find 55.5 -109/-110 if you shop around.
Posted 9:40am Sept 24
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’ll start the season investing 25% more on these plays in comparison to our ‘leans’ or smaller plays. The 25% increased risk size may change during the season as we take stock of how things are going. We’ll typically have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that it’s not one of our favorite plays of the week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards. We’ve used this terminology for over 20 years, so as annoying as the word ‘lean’ may be, we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’. We’ll typically post between 8 and 12 of these plays per week.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.