Week 5 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Let’s get ready for Week 5 action!
Update — Thursday 1pm — We’ll have several more picks between now and 5pm Friday.
Update – Friday 6am — We’ll have more picks today by Friday at 5pm, including one “official”/send-out play.
Update – Friday 12:30pm — We’ll have everything wrapped up by 5pm Friday.
Update – Friday 4:30pm – We’re done for the week – GL and enjoy the games!
Official plays — Texas St -4.5 -115, Temple +6
Leans (smaller plays) — San Jose St +3 -115, Baylor +4, Syracuse -7 -105, Ohio -3.5, Iowa +14.5 -115
Handy index: Quick Takes
Games with the analysis completed are in bold.
Picks are in blue.
Week 5 College Football
- North Texas at Tulsa (Thursday)
- Western Kentucky at New Mexico St (Thursday)
- Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech (Friday)
- Liberty at Delaware (Friday)
- Penn St at Northwestern (Friday)
- SYRACUSE at Connecticut (Lean)
- West Virginia at Iowa St
- UCF at Houston
- MTSU at Kansas
- Alabama at Mississippi St
- Stanford at Wake Forest
- Navy at Air Force
- Michigan at Minnesota
- Boston College at SMU
- Notre Dame at North Carolina
- Michigan St at Wisconsin
- Vanderbilt at Georgia
- Western Michigan at Buffalo
- Toledo at Ball St
- OHIO at Kent St (Lean)
- Florida at Missouri
- California at UNLV
- Louisville at NC State
- Wyoming at North Dakota St
- Old Dominion at Georgia St
- Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts
- Ohio St at IOWA (Lean)
- Auburn at Tennessee
- Bowling Green at Miami Ohio
- Akron at Central Michigan
- Memphis at Charlotte
- Virginia at Florida St
- Marshall at James Madison
- UTEP at New Mexico
- Maryland at Nebraska
- Kentucky at South Carolina
- Purdue at Illinois
- Oregon St at Colorado St
- BYU at TCU
- Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina
- Arkansas at Texas A&M
- UTSA at Rice
- ULM at South Alabama
- Utah St at Boise St
- Temple at South Florida (Official pick)
- Texas Tech at Colorado
- Miami at Clemson
- Army at Louisiana Tech
- Washington at USC
- Indiana at Rutgers
- Arkansas St at Louisiana
- Fresno St at Washington St
- BAYLOR at Arizona St (Lean)
- TEXAS ST at San Diego St (Official pick)
- Cincinnati at Arizona
- SAN JOSE ST at Hawaii (Lean)
1. Tulsa -1.5 North Texas (57.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Tulsa 29.5 North Texas 28.0
We have North Texas as the slightly better team on a neutral field and view this as a 50/50 coin-flip kind of game. North Texas has shown more on offense, while Tulsa owns a win over Oklahoma St that looks better and better by the minute.
We’re still not sure about the status of Tulsa’s starting QB Baylor Hayes and would want him under center before considering a play on the Golden Hurricane. Backup QB Dexter Williams isn’t a total muppet, but we believe Tulsa could really use Hayes’ leadership in the conference opener.
No leanage
2. New Mexico St -2.5 Western Kentucky (56.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Pick’em
Vegas Implied Score – New Mexico St 29.5 Western Kentucky 27.0
Western Kentucky has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation (#16) and has already made road trips to Indiana and Georgia. New Mexico St has faced the #101 ranked docket and is coming off a poor performance in the Rio Grande Rivalry against New Mexico. The Aggies haven’t scored more than 19 points against any of their three FBS opponents and have tasted victory only against something known as Mercyhurst. Funny enough, that’s the only team WKU has beaten as well. New Mexico St HC Tony Sanchez is 1-4 ATS as a home favorite. Toppers HC Tyson Helton is 27-18-1 ATS on the road. Also note that WKU is still awaiting the debut of stud WR KD Hutchinson, who could show up at any time. Game looks like a tossup to us.
No leanage
3. Virginia Tech -3.5 Pittsburgh (54.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Virginia Tech -3
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia Tech 28.5 Pittsburgh 25.0
This is a great Friday night ACC matchup featuring two undefeated teams in a terrific environment. Both starting QBs have been excellent (combined 21-1 TD-to-INT ratio!), and both teams have feasted on soft schedules. Both secondaries are susceptible to the pass, while both defenses have been good against the run, although we trust Pitt’s front a lot more. The underdog Panthers are worth a look, but note that this will be their first road test of the season. Also note that the home team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
No leanage
4. Liberty -7 Delaware (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Liberty -7
Vegas Implied Score – Liberty 28.75 Delaware 21.75
We’ve got this lined right at the number. Liberty’s CUSA potential is starting to look really good when you examine the résumé. The Flames hung with James Madison and handled Coastal Carolina with ease on the road. That might not sound incredible on the surface, but Liberty is a much better team than the one we saw in 2025. Delaware is one of the contenders in CUSA and very good at home, but does it have enough juice to hang with what might be the best team in the conference?
No leanage
5. Penn St -2.5 Northwestern (45.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Penn St -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 24.0 Northwestern 21.5
There’s a lot of uproar over this point spread being “so low” and a “trap,” but the reality is that Penn St beat duds like Marshall, Buffalo, and Temple before losing to Wisconsin, and they’re still without WR1. Northwestern gave Indiana a scare a week after smoking Colorado. Also note that Oct. 2 marks the 100-year anniversary of the first Northwestern football game played at this site. This was chronicled in our AWARD-WINNING 2026 Northwestern Wildcats College Football Preview, and we’d like to thank the media for catching up.
No leanage
6. Syracuse -7 Connecticut (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Syracuse -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Syracuse 28.75 Connecticut 21.75
Syracuse remains an underrated outfit in our minds as the Orange were extremely unlucky to lose to Cal after dominating the yardage battle 436-249 and holding a late lead. They also held up very well against Pitt. They’ve played a much more difficult schedule than UConn (#72 vs #132) and need this game if they want to stay on track for their goal of making a bowl game. Also note that backup QB Amari Odom is expected to get some run in this game, and we can’t wait. Another tasty tidbit: Their most explosive RB, Tylik Hill, is back after leaving the Cal game early due to injury. UConn got CURB STOMPED by Maryland at home earlier this season, and the Terps have since proven to be horrible. UConn ranks #132 nationally in pass defense, and we expect Syracuse to do some damage through the air.
Lean – Syracuse -7 -105
Consensus is -7 -105. One major book is offering -7 -102.
Posted 4:18pm Oct 1
7. Iowa St -2.5 West Virginia (53.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa St 28.0 West Virginia 25.5
The Cyclones are extremely limited on offense behind QB Jaylen Raynor (5-3 TD-to-INT ratio, 54%), but they do have an absolutely devastating missile at RB in Aiden Flora (383 yards, 7.5 YPC, 3 TDs), who’s capable of making more long-distance HOUSE CALLS than DR QUINN, MEDICINE WOMAN.
West Virginia has the #4 rushing attack in the country (295 YPG) behind QB Michael Hawkins and RB Cam Cook, but the Mountaineers don’t have much of a THROW GAME either. West Virginia is decent against the run but horrible against the pass, so that’s actually a favorable matchup vs Iowa St. The Cyclones play hard and have the better overall defense, but this game should probably be a pick ’em. Sniffing around for a WV play. At a minimum, they’ll be part of the moneyline underdog picks released at 3pm Friday.
No leanage
8. Houston -12.5 UCF (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Houston -13.5
Vegas Implied Score – Houston 32.0 UCF 19.5
Houston is still very much in the Big 12 hunt despite losing to Texas Tech, but they’ve got to be LASER FOCUSED the rest of the way. They’ve got a productive and balanced offense, are strong against the run, and we’d be very surprised if UCF can do enough damage through the air to keep this game close. The Knights haven’t done much offensively against either of the Power 4 opponents they’ve faced (Pitt and TCU), and it’ll be tough sledding in Houston this week. We’re tempted to take the favorite, but the price isn’t cheap. Fun fact: The home team is 0-8-1 ATS in the series.
No leanage
9. Kansas -19.5 MTSU (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Kansas -20.5
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas 35.0 MTSU 15.5
Tricky game to call as Kansas has had some time off since its loss to Arizona St in JOLLY OLD ENGLAND, but don’t forget the Jayhawks outgained a solid Arizona St team 414-228 in that seven-point defeat. They’ve also got Big 12 play up next, with a road venture to mighty Utah. MTSU is a scrappy outfit that should be competitive in CUSA play, but the Blue Raiders have been blown out a few times on the road against Power 4 opponents under HC Derek Mason (42-10 at Wisconsin last year, 52-3 at Ole Miss in 2024).
No leanage
10. Alabama -6 Mississippi St (60.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Alabama -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Alabama 33.25 Mississippi St 27.25
WHOA, NELLIE. Saturday kicks off with a good one at High Noon as we get to watch two of the most exciting QBs in the country in Kamario Taylor and Keelon Russell. Both guys can kill you through the air or with their legs. The Tide have the better defense, but they’ve been underwhelming in recent games, allowing Florida St (!) to roast them through with the passing attack and South Carolina to rumble for well over 200 yards on the ground last week. Our primary concern with Mississippi St is that they’ve played three max-effort games in a row. There’s also the fact that the Tide are 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings (won 16 in a row).
No leanage
11. Wake Forest -13.5 Stanford (53.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Wake Forest -12
Vegas Implied Score – Wake Forest 33.5 Stanford 20.0
Can we really go back to the well with Stanford on an East Coast trip? Recall that we got taken behind the woodshed when we backed the Cardinal against Duke a few weeks ago. Stanford QB Davis Warren is playing well and hasn’t thrown an INT in his last 143 pass attempts, but the defense remains very, very sketchy. Wake Forest is one of the legitimate players in the ACC’s second tier and is coming off a big road upset of LUA-VUH. It’s never easy laying double digits after a win like that.
No leanage
12. Air Force -3.5 Navy (45.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Air Force -3
Vegas Implied Score – Air Force 24.5 Navy 21.0
Air Force pulled one off at Nevada last week in 2OT, and we love to see that for the FLYBOYS. Don’t forget they dropped three games by — wait for it — three points in a span of four games last year. Navy has already dropped a pair of conference games, which essentially knocks the Midshipmen out of the American race. That said, they’ve still got the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy to battle for in 2026. Navy’s starting QB Braxton Woodson is questionable for this one, but backup Jackson Gutierrez isn’t bad. He can run and has thrown for 100+ yards in two consecutive outings. These two teams are very comparable in quality, but Air Force is our pick to win as the Falcons are playing with more confidence right now. That said, we’d only consider them at -3 or better.
No leanage
13. Michigan -5.5 Minnesota (43.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Michigan -6
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan 24.5 Minnesota 19.0
Tough game to call. Michigan played its best game of the season last week but lost a heartbreaker to Iowa, as chronicled in our AWARD-WINNING Week 4 recap. Michigan is still having trouble running the ball and has passed for more yards than it has rushed for in three of four games thus far. So we’re gonna rely on Bryce Underwood and the THROW GAME?
Minnesota picked up a big road win at Washington and looks primed to break a — wait for it — 18-game home losing streak to Michigan. The Wolverines have played the much tougher schedule overall. Both teams are going to have trouble moving the ball on the ground with two stout run defenses in action, which makes the Under a wee bit dicey given the necessity to pass, although it’s still probably the only way we’d go in this one.
No leanage
14. SMU -19.5 Boston College (56.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – SMU -21
Vegas Implied Score – SMU 38.0 Boston College 18.5
SMU hasn’t exactly dazzled this season, but the offense is working just fine behind QB Kevin Jennings and RB Kendrick Raphael. The defense has been okay, but at least the pass rush got activated last week with seven sacks against Missouri St. Speaking of that game, the Mustangs won by just 10 points but completely dominated the stat sheet. Boston College has little hope of keeping pace for four quarters, but the Eagles could hang within the number if SMU gets sloppy.
No leanage
15. Notre Dame -21.5 North Carolina (47.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Notre Dame -23.5
Vegas Implied Score – Notre Dame 34.5 North Carolina 13.0
We’ve got Notre Dame at the top of our TOP SECRET Power Ratings, which have been carefully crafted by several clever Doomsday AI Bots and lots of people who like to, as the cool kids say, “watch tape.” The Irish have destroyed the opposition by a combined score of 169-33, and that blowout win over Wisconsin is looking even better now. UNC doesn’t have the horses to keep up, but we’re not crazy about laying more than three TDs. Notre Dame has covered four straight in the series.
No leanage
16. Wisconsin -10 Michigan St (43.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Wisconsin -10.5
Vegas Implied Score – Wisconsin 26.75 Michigan St 16.75
Yes, guy. The Badgers SHOCKED THE WORLD with a road win at Penn St last week and now come home to face a struggling Michigan St team that was just poleaxed by Nebraska. You have to wonder if Wisconsin will suffer a bit of a letdown after that victory, but the Badgers’ run defense has been solid and Michigan St has accumulated a grand total of 83 net rushing yards in its last two games against Notre Dame and CORN (10 sacks allowed). Note that Michigan St’s starting RB Cam Edwards was lost for the year due to injury. The line looks about right, but we could only LAY IT if we’re gonna PLAY IT.
No leanage
17. Georgia -24.5 Vanderbilt (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Georgia -23
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia 38.0 Vanderbilt 13.5
Georgia is averaging 55 PPG (!) and comes into this one off a pasting of Oklahoma. The spread looks a bit high, but the Dawgs are a tough fade right now. Just don’t forget they’ve got an epic clash with Alabama up next. Vanderbilt is clearly down a notch from last season, but HC Clark Lea is 15-8-1 ATS as a road underdog.
No leanage
18. Western Michigan -13.5 Buffalo (46.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Western Michigan -14.5
Vegas Implied Score – Western Michigan 30.0 Buffalo 16.5
Buffalo just escaped with its life against something called Robert Morris last time out (31-28) as a four-TD favorite, and that makes it two one-score wins over FCS opponents this season (Albany being the other). The Bulls aren’t looking good on either side of the football. Western Michigan just got blasted by Boise St and played without star WR Aveion Chenault, who is listed as questionable again this week. The offense doesn’t have quite the same punch as last year, but the stop unit still looks solid.
No leanage
19. Toledo -19.5 Ball St (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Toledo -21
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo 35.5 Ball St 16.0
Toledo SMEEEAAAAAASHED San Diego St 41-16 last time out, much to the delight of MEGALOCKS junkies, and now begins MAC play with a road trip to the corpse of Ball St, a clear bottom-feeder this season. Toledo QB John Alan Richter has posted a pristine 10-0 TD-to-INT ratio over his last three games. Ball St had to roll with backup QB Tyler Mizzell last week against Kent St, and he looked decent. Note that the last time the Rockets came to town (2023), they had to sweat out a 13-6 win as 17-point favorites. We could only look to Toledo in this game, but we’ll take a pass for now.
No leanage
20. Ohio -3.5 Kent St (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Ohio -6
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio 27.0 Kent St 23.5
We’ll roll with the Bobcats in this one. Kent St has wins over something known as Wofford and Ball St, while getting obliterated by Ohio St and South Carolina. The Golden Flashes are pretty average on both sides of the football from a MAC perspective. Ohio gave Jacksonville St and South Alabama a good fight, and don’t forget the Bobcats hung with Nebraska into the second half before a couple of late scores provided some separation. The QB situation appears settled with Matt Vezza, a dual-threat specimen, and RB1 Duncan Brune should be back and ready to roll this week.
Ohio is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
Lean – Ohio -3.5 -108
-3.5 is listed almost everywhere
posted 11:30am Oct 1
21. Florida -5.5 Missouri (57.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Florida -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Florida 31.5 Missouri 26.0
Florida has been moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE (533 YPG, #5 FBS) while averaging a robust 53.5 PPG (#2 FBS). We don’t plan on stepping in front of this Gator train right now, although it’s worth noting that Missouri has held up very well against the run thus far, and QB Austin Simmons has a sparkling 11-0 TD-to-INT ratio. Can Florida come up with a third consecutive monster effort after smoking Auburn and Ole Miss in back-to-back weeks? Inquiring minds want to know, yo.
No leanage
22. UNLV -2.5 California (53.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – UNLV 28.0 California 25.5
We’re below market on both of these squads, and Cal really disappointed in a big home spot against Clemson last week. The Bears also have another important ACC game on deck against Virginia Tech. UNLV destroyed Akron last week, but the Rebels have a big game looming of their own when they host the JUGGERNAUT known as North Dakota St.
No leanage
23. Louisville -3.5 NC State (58.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Louisville -5
Vegas Implied Score – Louisville 32.0 NC State 28.5
Big game for LUA-VUH after getting upset by Wake Forest last week, as another ACC loss would pretty much kill any chance the Cardinals have of playing for all the conference marbles in December. Our numbers like Louisville in this game, but starting QB Lincoln Kienholz has an unknown injury (“he has something”) that currently makes him a game-time decision for this tilt. We can’t back the Cards with the possibility that your boy Briggs Cherry ends up starting at QB. NC State has looked much better since the opening week slaughter at the hands of Virginia.
No leanage
24. North Dakota St -18.5 Wyoming (45.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – North Dakota St -17
Vegas Implied Score – North Dakota St 32.0 Wyoming 13.5
Wyoming played its best game of the season last week in a win over Hawaii, but the Cowboys are a tough team to trust on the road. The defense hasn’t allowed anyone to reach the 400-yard mark on offense yet this year, so maybe Wyoming can hang within the number if the offense doesn’t barf all over itself with turnovers like it did during the Colorado St debacle.
North Dakota St is 4-0 and coming off a bye week. The Bison are clearly one of the top teams in the Mountain West and very much in the conversation for a G6 CFP berth if they keep rolling. They’re extremely consistent, but they haven’t hit the 400-yard mark on offense yet this season. Was hoping for a total of 48 or so to hit the under, but here we are.
No leanage
25. Georgia St -2.5 Old Dominion (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Georgia St -3
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia St 27.0 Old Dominion 24.5
We prefer Georgia St in this game, but it’s been tough for us to get to the window for two reasons. One, Old Dominion has played the much tougher schedule (#76 vs #145). Two, Georgia St did not impress us last week against the corpse of Northern Illinois. The Panthers were outgained 432-342 at home and were fortunate to win as comfortably as they did. The tricky part about handicapping this game is the QB situation for ODU. Starting QB Quinn Henicle is the much better runner and appears ready to return this week, but backup Ryan Huff moved the ball nicely through the air last week, and that’s exactly how you want to attack Georgia St’s defense.
No leanage
26. Massachusetts -4.5 Eastern Michigan (49.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – UMass -3
Vegas Implied Score – Massachusetts 27.0 Eastern Michigan 22.5
WHOA, NELLIE. The Minutemen are 4-0 and looking good, although their last three wins have come against some of the worst teams that any level of football has to offer. The spread may have finally caught up with UMass. Eastern Michigan isn’t anything special, but the Eagles have a strong ATS track record as road underdogs under HC Chris Creighton.
No leanage
27. Ohio St -14.5 Iowa (45.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -13
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 30.0 Iowa 15.5
We see some value in the Hawkeyes according to our numbers, but we can’t deny that they were lucky to beat Michigan, and note that they’ve had trouble scoring against Power 4 opponents. This just in — Ohio St is a pretty good Power 4 opponent. However, Ohio St’s defense was roasted by Illinois last week, giving up 462 (!) yards, including a whopping 199 yards on the ground (6.0 YPC). Iowa has a strong track record of playing top-tier teams very tough at home. Just ask Oregon and Indiana, who lost by a combined seven points in Iowa City last year.
Dog or pass. We need to mull it over.
Lean – Iowa +14.5 -115
Consensus is +14.5 -115
Posted 4:33pm Oct 2
No leanage
28. Tennessee -6.5 Auburn (54)………..MEGALOCKS line – Tennessee -6
Vegas Implied Score – Tennessee 30.25 Auburn 23.75
Tennessee lost a SNOT BUBBLER to Texas last week, and Under bettors were the recipients of a ROCKING CHAIR winner. Sadly, Tennessee’s offense remains a work in progress, struggling to hit shots down the field, and recall that the Vols allowed 10 (!) sacks against the Longhorns last week. Auburn’s offense might be even worse, as the Byrum Brown And Friends experiment has been plodding along so far. We like the Under a bit, but both teams play really fast, which complicates things.
No leanage
29. Miami Ohio -13.5 Bowling Green (43.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Miami Ohio -15
Vegas Implied Score – Miami Ohio 28.5 Bowling Green 15.0
Miami Ohio is another team down a starting QB, and the sad thing is that David McComb has looked really good lately. He’ll miss some time, and our DEEP MAC INSIDERS tell us he may not suit up again this season. Bowling Green is horrible, but the Falcons gave South Florida a good game last week. We can’t back Miami this week with Caleb HEAVNER at the controls.
No leanage
30. Central Michigan -6.5 Akron (48.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Central Michigan -5
Vegas Implied Score – Central Michigan 27.5 Akron 21.0
No leanage
31. Memphis -20.5 Charlotte (53.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Memphis -21
Vegas Implied Score – Memphis 37.0 Charlotte 16.5
No leanage
32. Virginia -2.5 Florida St (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Virginia -1
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia 27.0 Florida St 24.5
Virginia has played two decent teams and destroyed one (NC State) while getting handled by the other (West By God Virginia). The Cavaliers get back to the ACC grind this week with a trip to Florida St, a team looking to avenge last year’s multiple-OT loss in Charlottesville. Some reports suggest Florida St football is currently worth less than a bucket of dead rats in a tampon factory, but the Seminoles still have some excellent weaponry on offense, including RB Ousmane Kromah and WR Duce Robinson. The big concern in backing Florida St is its inability to stop the run thus far, and that’s Virginia’s bread and butter.
No leanage
33. James Madison -18.5 Marshall (54.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – James Madison -17
Vegas Implied Score – James Madison 36.5 Marshall 18.0
Our initial reaction was to SMEEAAAAASH the underdog Thundering Herd at this monster spread, but further analysis has led us to conclude they might actually be really bad. Over their last three games, the Herd have slithered past MTSU, Missouri St, and the law firm of Gardner-Webb by a combined nine points. JMU is playing tip-top football right now and is one blowout win away from entering WAGON status.
No leanage
34. New Mexico -22.5 UTEP (48.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – New Mexico -21
Vegas Implied Score – New Mexico 35.5 UTEP 13.0
The Lobos have a great defense and a strong rushing attack and are clearly one of the top teams in the Mountain West. Laying big numbers with them can be a bit tricky given the grinding style they employ. UTEP is off to a rough start, but note that three of their four games were completely unwinnable (at Oklahoma, at Michigan, Oregon St). The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
No leanage
35. Nebraska -14.5 Maryland (52.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Nebraska -13
Vegas Implied Score – Nebraska 33.5 Maryland 19.0
The Huskers are the only side we could back in this one as they’re undefeated and have outscored their opponents by a combined tally of 170-48. The schedule has been buttery soft, but it’s not like Maryland is any good. The Terps just got cremated by UCLA 54-3 at home, and the big story in College Park is the status of head coach Mike Locksley, who somehow still has a job despite a 39-51 record with the Terps and a 41-77 career mark. Will Maryland circle the wagons or throw in the towel? If you think they’re done, there might be value in alternate lines at -16.5, -19.5, and beyond.
No leanage
36. South Carolina -3 Kentucky (53.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – South Carolina -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – South Carolina 28.25 Kentucky 25.25
This is a very tricky game to handicap. South Cackalacky was just torn to shreds by Alabama a week after losing a home date with Mississippi St. The vibes in Columbia aren’t great, with Exhibit A being the suspension of star DE Dylan Stewart. Kentucky is one of the most pleasant surprises of the young season, and QB Kevin Minchey has looked really good (8-1 TD-to-INT ratio). The Cats also have a pair of RBs with more than 300 rushing yards. We have these teams as a pick ’em on a neutral field and give the Cocks 2.5 points for home-field advantage. We think taking the three points is the way to go, but note that South Carolina has absolutely owned Kentucky of late, winning and covering four straight. Can the Cocks make one last stand on Saturday, or are they ready to let go of the rope?
No leanage
37. Illinois -10 Purdue (62.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Illinois -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Illinois 36.25 Purdue 26.25
It’s time to battle for the Purdue Cannon, bay-bee. Our numbers show some value with the underdog, but it’s really difficult to trust that horrible Purdue defense after it surrendered close to 1,000 combined yards in its last two games against Notre Dame and UCLA. Illinois piled up 462 yards against Ohio St (!) last week, so the Over is our favorite look, especially given Purdue’s ability to also SCORE the FOOTBALL. The only question is the total of 62.5. We have it lined at 64.5/65 and aren’t sure that’s enough perceived value to make a move.
No leanage
38. Oregon St -6.5 Colorado St (61.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Oregon St -7
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon St 34.0 Colorado St 27.5
Big game for Colorado St as the Rams make their Pac-12 debut at home in Fort Collins. We don’t have the highest hopes for Colorado St, as they’ll be without starting QB Hauss Hejny, who was playing excellent dual-threat football before his injury (10-1 TD-to-INT ratio, 128 rushing yards, 9.8 YPC, 1 TD). Backup K’Saan Farrar lit it up through the air at UTSA last week, but he doesn’t have the ability to threaten defenses with his legs. Also note that the Rams have allowed 100 total points in their last two outings.
Oregon St has been one of the most pleasant surprises in the Group of Six and is getting excellent production from QB Braden Atkinson (11-2 TD-to-INT ratio, 8.7 YPA). RB AJ Newberry also emerged with a 100-yard game last week. Another encouraging sign for the Beavers: Oregon St came up with seven sacks against UTEP last week, while Atkinson hasn’t been sacked in either of the last two games. The favorite and the Over are both interesting options, and we’ll need to come up with a final call on Friday.
No leanage
39. BYU -6 TCU (47.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – BYU -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – BYU 26.75 TCU 20.75
TCU has been a hot mess on offense, and QB Jaden Craig hasn’t thrown a TD pass against a Power 4 opponent (2 INT). The defense has been stout, allowing just 12.5 PPG (#14 FBS), so the Horned Frogs should be able to make BYU work for everything it gets. BYU is coming off a bye, and the Cougars have exactly what you need if you want to make a run at the Big 12 title and CFP: a devastating ground game and elite run defense. They’ve also found a star WR in freshman Legend Glasker, who is becoming a bit of a walking highlight reel. We prefer BYU, but TCU’s loss to UCF is going to make us pay a bit more if we decide to climb aboard.
No leanage
40. Georgia Southern -2.5 Coastal Carolina (54.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Georgia Southern -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia Southern 28.5 Coastal Carolina 26.0
Both teams are 1-3 with wins over FCS opponents, but it’s a clean slate heading into October and the start of Sun Belt play, so we’ll get the best effort from both squads. Coastal Carolina appears to be getting worse and has faced a much easier schedule. QB Deuce Bailey has looked good, but note that the Chanticleers have been shut out in the second half in EACH of their last two games (Delaware and Liberty). That’s a problem, yo. Georgia Southern is the better team in our estimation and has won four straight in the series. We prefer the Eagles in this game, but note that they lost two of their best players to injury in their last outing (#1 WR Ashton Hollins and leading tackler LB Rashon Myles Jr.).
No leanage
41. Texas A&M -14 Arkansas (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Texas A&M -15.5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas A&M 32.75 Arkansas 18.75
Texas A&M’s season is going GLUG GLUG GLUG down the tubes faster than the Canadian economy, and QB Marcel Reed has an ugly 6-4 TD-to-INT ratio while averaging a mere 5.7 yards per attempt. WOO PIG may be the worst team in the SEC, but the Razorbacks already have a pair of wins, and note that their two losses came against CFP-worthy outfits Georgia and Utah. There’s no shortage of bad blood between these former Southwest Conference rivals.
No leanage
42. UTSA -11.5 Rice (55.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – UTSA -10.5
Vegas Implied Score – UTSA 33.5 Rice 22.0
The Roadrunners exploded for 59 points last week in a home win over Colorado St and now open American Conference play with a road trip to Rice. UTSA won’t have much trouble moving the ball on Rice, but the Owls can really run the football (269 YPG, #8 FBS), and the Roadrunners’ run defense has been downright disgusting (213 YPG, #133). The home team has covered five of the last six meetings in the series.
No leanage
43. South Alabama -14 ULM (56.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – South Alabama -15
Vegas Implied Score – South Alabama 35.25 ULM 21.25
South Alabama should win this game comfortably as ULM looks awful so far, but note that the Jags will probably be rolling with their backup QB for another week, and their run defense has been atrocious thus far: 212 rushing yards allowed to Tulane, 153 to Ohio, and 390 to Kentucky. ULM doesn’t do much of anything well on offense or defense, but the Warhawks have covered the Sun Belt opener in each of the last five seasons and have pulled three outright upsets along the way.
No leanage
44. Boise St -20.5 Utah St (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Boise St -18
Vegas Implied Score – Boise St 36.0 Utah St 15.5
We see a bit of line value with the dog according to our numbers, but the Aggies haven’t scored more than 21 points in any game this season. TREND GUY will point out that Boise St is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
No leanage
45. South Florida -6 Temple (48.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – South Florida -5
Vegas Implied Score – USF 28.5 Temple 23.0
SEE FULL PAGE GAME ANALYSIS
Official pick – Temple +6 -108
Consensus is +6. There are still some +6.5s out there.
Sent 12:40pm Oct 2
46. Texas Tech -13.5 Colorado (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Texas Tech -14
Vegas Implied Score – Texas Tech 32.0 Colorado 18.5
No leanage
47. Miami -16.5 Clemson (48.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Miami -14.5
Vegas Implied Score – Miami 32.5 Clemson 16.0
YOUR Miami Hurricanes get their first real test of the season after outscoring a collection of patsies by a combined tally of 207-36. They’re much more talented than Clemson on both sides of the football, but the Tigers have booked back-to-back ACC wins by HOOK or by CROOK and sit tied atop the conference standings with — wait for it — Miami. The Hurricanes have been hit fairly hard by the injury bug but should have RB1 Mark Fletcher back for this one. It’s hard to see Clemson scoring enough to keep this one close, although the Tigers’ defense has definitely stepped it up over the last two weeks. Fun fact: Miami QB Darian Mensah has more TD passes (14) than incompletions (12).
No leanage
48. Army -1.5 Louisiana Tech (47.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Army 24.5 Louisiana Tech 23.0
Army was unlucky to lose to USF, but probably fortunate to get past Temple last time out as HOOT HOOT outgained them to the tune of 459-315. Louisiana Tech might be rolling with backup QB Trey Kukuk, but we don’t mind that at all since he’s got useful mobility. We prefer the Bulldogs, but note that they’re 0-6 ATS in their last six games against Service Academies.
No leanage
49. USC -9.5 Washington (58.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – USC -11
Vegas Implied Score – USC 34.0 Washington 24.5
The Trojans are the only side we could look at in this spot, even after they spilled their guts in the loss to Oregon last time out. USC still has an elite QB in Jayden Maiava (14-2) and offensive weaponry all over the place. The defense is hot trash, but Washington isn’t equipped to take full advantage of that disgusting stop unit. QB Demond Williams is doing his best to carry the Huskies’ offense, but the RB room has been decimated by injuries, and that’s certainly not helping matters. Trend Guy will point out that Washington is 10-3 ATS L13 in the series. USC or pass, and we’re still mulling it over.
No leanage
50. Indiana -23.5 Rutgers (56.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Indiana -24
Vegas Implied Score – Indiana 40.0 Rutgers 16.5
The Hoosiers have been inconsistent by their championship standards, but they’ve still outscored their opponents 174-39 thus far. Northwestern gave them a scare last week when QB Aidan Chiles had a DAY, so perhaps Rutgers can get something going in the THROW GAME and stay within the number. Keep your eye on Rutgers WR KJ Duff, who has been in BEAST MODE all year (550 yards, 19.0 YPC, 7 TDs).
No leanage
51. Louisiana -6.5 Arkansas St (47.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Louisiana -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana 27.0 Arkansas St 20.5
We’ve got this lined right at the number but prefer Louisiana slightly in this spot. They’ve got the edge at QB with our boy Lunch Winfield leading the way, particularly on the ground (295 rushing yards, 6 TDs). The Cajuns’ defense has held three of four opponents to 14 points or less. Louisiana has won six straight at home in the series and has covered the spread in eight of the last 12 home meetings with the Red Wolves. Big game in the Sun Belt West, and we expect a max effort from both squads.
No leanage
52. Washington St -1.5 Fresno St (45.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Washington St 23.5 Fresno St 22.0
Complete toss-up in our mind, and the Pac-12 opener for both squads. Fresno St has been better since getting rolled by USC, but the roster still has a few holes. Washington St has played a much tougher schedule and sits at 1-3, with its only win coming against something called Duquesne.
No leanage
53. Arizona St -4 Baylor (49.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Arizona St -3
Vegas Implied Score – Arizona St 26.75 Baylor 22.75
We’ll roll with the Bears catching points in this one as they lead the Big 12 in sacks (15) and haven’t allowed anyone to score more than 20 points in four games, including mighty Auburn. Arizona St managed just 369 yards against Texas A&M and a measly 228 yards (!) against a crappy Kansas stop unit. Note that the Sun Devils are coming off a bye, which should help, but their offensive line and tight end room are very banged up, and that’s not what you want to see heading into a game against Dave Aranda’s defense. Baylor has two capable QBs but isn’t especially dynamic on offense. Arizona St has gotten solid QB play and great production from WR Reed Harris, but WR Omarian Miller has had a tough time getting rolling and is averaging an miserable 7.5 YPC with just one TD. The ground game has been MEH. Let’s grab the points in what should be a one-score game either way.
Lean – Baylor +4 -108
Consensus is +4. You can find anywhere from +3.5 to +4.5.
Posted 9:52am Oct 1
54. Texas St -4.5 San Diego St (59.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Texas St -5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas St 32.0 San Diego St 27.5
Official pick – Texas St -4.5 -115
SEE FULL PAGE GAME ANALYSIS
-4.5 -115 is consensus. Sent 4:58pm Sept 30
55. Arizona -6.5 Cincinnati (56.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Arizona -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Arizona 31.5 Cincinnati 25
Don’t look now, but Cincinnati is 4-0 after an upset win over Kansas St, and the Bearcats have a really strong rushing attack that’s carrying the mail (270 YPG, #7 FBS). Oh yeah, and QB JC French has yet to throw an interception. They’ve had significant issues defending the pass, and that’s not great when you’re heading on the road to face Arizona and star QB Noah Fifita (11-2 TD-to-INT ratio, 8.6 YPA). Speaking of heading on the road, it’s a long trip to Tucson and a weird body-clock game for Cincinnati, as kickoff comes at 10:30 p.m. EST. We’d be tempted to take the dog if the line ever got to +7, and here we are.
No leanage
56. Hawaii -3 San Jose St (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Hawaii 27.25 San Jose St 24.25
Hawaii has been dreadful on offense, and starting QB Micah Alejado has thrown just 3 TD passes in four games. The defense ranks dead last in the conference (400 YPG), while San Jose St counters with a star RB in Jabari Bates and a deep WR corps. Hawaii has played a slightly easier schedule (#119 vs. #106) and owns a -1.44 YPP margin, while San Jose St checks in at +0.52. San Jose St has won five straight in the series, and Coach Ken is 4-1 SU off a bye with the Spartans.
Lean – San Jose St +3 -115
+3 -115 in consensus
Posted 11:28am Sept 29