Week 5 – Temple at South Florida
The Game
It’s time for some SWEET Saturday night American Conference ACTION as the Temple Owls travel to face the undefeated South Florida Bulls down in Tampa. Temple (1-3) is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Army, a game in which the Owls easily could have won based on how they performed. They need this one to stay on track for their goal of making a bowl game. South Florida (4-0) just survived a major scare against Bowling Green and rolls into this one tied atop the conference standings thanks in large part to its miracle win over — wait for it — Army.
The Details
South Florida -6 Temple (48.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – South Florida -5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: South Florida 27.25 Temple 21.25
South Florida offense vs Temple defense
The USF offense has been stuck in the mud against FBS competition, putting up just 208 yards vs FIU, 369 vs Army, and a pathetic 214 vs Bowling Green. QB Michael Van Buren has thrown only 3 TD passes all season (0 INT), and the Bulls have relied heavily on RB DJ Crowther. USF has produced just one play of 40+ yards in four games and has struggled to stress opposing defenses. The Bulls rank #128 in the nation in YPG against FBS opposition (264 YPG).
Temple held up very well against Penn St and Army but got shredded by the Toledo THROW GAME. Thankfully, the Owls won’t have to worry too much about the pass in this matchup.
Temple offense vs South Florida defense
Temple’s offensive line has been excellent this year, and the Owls have developed a devastating three-headed monster when it comes to running the football. RBs Keveun Mason and Samuel Brown V have been outstanding, while QB Ajani Sheppard brings excellent mobility to the position. Since Brown joined the attack two games ago, this trio has combined for 425 yards and 3 TDs. Sheppard has also hit some deep shots in the THROW GAME and owns a pristine 5-0 TD-to-INT ratio. Could Temple have beaten Penn St if he started in Week 2? We’ll hang up and listen.
South Florida has been stout on defense (#2 run D in the American, #5 pass D), and the Bulls did a good job against the Army rushing attack. However, they’ve got to worry about the deep shots down the field in this matchup. Temple’s top two WRs are each averaging more than 20 YPC.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Temple has played three really good teams and faced the #51-rated schedule. South Florida has played a basket of turds, and its schedule ranks #169 in the nation. There are only 138 teams in the FBS, so you could argue that the Bulls’ average opponent has been worse than teams like Yale and Abilene Christian.
The INTREPID Phil Steele reminds us that the underdog is 7-3 ATS in the series with four outright upsets. The home team is 9-1 SU.
The weather forecast is calling for light winds and a 50% chance of showers.
Summary
We like the way the Owls have been running the football, and they also have the ability to throw it and keep the Bulls guessing. Temple has impressed us so far, and this promises to be a dogfight deep into the fourth quarter.
Conclusion
Official play – Temple +6 -106
Consensus is +6. There are still a few +6.5s out there.
Sent 12:40pm Oct 2
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’ll start the season investing 25% more on these plays in comparison to our ‘leans’ or smaller plays. The 25% increased risk size may change during the season as we take stock of how things are going. We’ll typically have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that it’s not one of our favorite plays of the week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards. We’ve used this terminology for over 20 years, so as annoying as the word ‘lean’ may be, we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’. We’ll usually post between 6 and 12 of these plays per week.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.