Week 5 – Texas St at San Diego St
The Game
We’ve got the Pac-12 debut for both teams on Saturday night as Texas St travels to face San Diego St. The Bobcats (2-2) have bounced back from losses to mighty Texas and UTSA with wins over a solid North Texas team and FCS scrub Incarnate Word. The Aztecs (1-3) return home after a beating at the hands of Toledo and have now lost three straight following an opening-week conquest of FCS turd Portland St.
The Details
Texas St -4.5 San Diego St (59.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Texas St -5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Texas St 32.0 San Diego St 27.5
Texas St offense vs San Diego St defense
Let them cook, yo.
Texas St is hitting its stride on offense and becoming WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE after the opening-week blowout loss at Texas. The Bobcats outgained UTSA 481-398 in their Week 2 defeat and then piled up more than 600 yards (300+ on the ground) in each of their last two games. Brad Jackson is one of the best QBs in the Group of Six and a devastating dual-threat weapon (17 rushing TDs last year). The Bobcats also feature a deadly 1-2 RB combo, and Torrance Burgess has rushed for 140, 214, and 149 yards over the last three games (537 yards, 8.5 YPC, 1 TD). The WR room is loaded, and note that star WR Beau Sparks finally appears healthy. Sparks and running mate Chris Dawn each posted 1,000-yard seasons in 2025. The offensive line is making life easy in the run game (281 YPG, #6 FBS), and the Bobcats have allowed only four sacks all season.
San Diego St’s defense is nowhere near the monster it was last year (29 PPG allowed vs 15 PPG in 2025). The Aztecs have allowed each of their last two opponents (JMU and Toledo) to top 400 yards, and two of their last three opponents have rushed for more than 200 yards. The Aztecs have also managed just six sacks in four games.
San Diego St offense vs Texas St defense
It’s been a disgusting mess on this side of the football for San Diego St, and a combination of horrid QB play and a rash of injuries has derailed the offense. QB Jayden Denegal owns an ugly 5-5 TD-to-INT ratio, and only one player on the roster has more than 100 receiving yards this season. Three of the Aztecs’ projected top-five WRs have either been sidelined or have played through injuries, and we don’t have much hope for the THROW GAME this week. However, they’ll make some plays by default because Texas St has one of the worst pass defenses in the country.
The real bad news for San Diego St is that both of its top two RBs (Sutton, Kinnard) left last week’s game with significant ankle/knee injuries, and it’s very unlikely either is 100% healthy for this matchup. Also note that last year’s #2 RB Christian Washington recently left the program, and that makes the RB room depth a serious concern. This is a good matchup for the Bobcats’ stop unit because the run defense held North Texas to 82 rushing yards (2.7 YPC) and Incarnate Word to 82 rushing yards (2.0 YPC) in the last two games. The Aztecs will have a rough time keeping this game close if they rely too much on throwing the football.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
As noted earlier, this is a big game for both teams as they make their debuts in the remodeled Pac-12 conference.
Texas St hasn’t been great on the road under HC G.J. Kinne (7-10 SU, 8-9 ATS), but the Bobcats lost three road games by a combined seven points in 2025 and beat UTSA in the Dome in Week 2 of last year’s campaign.
San Diego St hasn’t covered a game all season.
We’re not doctors and don’t know exactly what’s going on, but a case of the mumps has infiltrated the San Diego St football team. That’s either neutral or negative for the Aztecs. It certainly can’t be a positive.
The weather forecast looks perfect.
Summary
Texas St should have too much firepower for San Diego St, especially on a fast track. Our projected spread of -5 is the highest number we’ve seen, so you might want to wait and see if some numbers guys come in on San Diego St and drive the line down. We like the game up to -6.5 regardless, and we’ll see what happens.
Conclusion
Official play – Texas St -4.5 -115
-4.5 -115 is consensus.
Sent 4:58pm Sept 30
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’ll start the season investing 25% more on these plays in comparison to our ‘leans’ or smaller plays. The 25% increased risk size may change during the season as we take stock of how things are going. We’ll typically have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that it’s not one of our favorite plays of the week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards. We’ve used this terminology for over 20 years, so as annoying as the word ‘lean’ may be, we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’. We’ll usually post between 6 and 12 of these plays per week.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.