Week 6 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Let’s get ready for Week 6 action!
Update: Thursday 7am — several more picks coming between now and 5pm Friday.
Update: Thursday 6pm — several more picks coming between now and 5pm Friday. Two so far.
Update: Friday 6am — we’ll start things off for the day at 9-10am.
Update Friday noon — we’ll have more picks by 5pm including one official/send-out pick
Update Friday 5pm — We’re done for the week. Enjoy the games and GL! (There was a typo in the thread title — 7 picks were listed in the summary and in the body of the text. Not 6.
Official plays — Missouri -3.5, Houston +2.5
Leans (smaller plays) — Northern Illinois +7.5 -112, Boise St -6.5 -118, Georgia +1.5, Indiana -7.5 -115, Bowling Green -8.5
Handy index: Quick Takes
Games with the analysis completed are in bold.
Picks are in blue.
Week 6 College Football
- Southern Miss at Troy (Tuesday)
- Jacksonville St at Kennesaw St (Wednesday)
- New Mexico St at Florida International (Wednesday)
- Missouri St at Western Kentucky (Thursday)
- Sam Houston at Liberty (Thursday)
- South Alabama at Arkansas St (Thursday)
- USF at UTSA (Thursday)
- Florida St at Louisville (Friday)
- Wyoming at San Jose St (Friday)
- Washington St at Utah St (Friday)
- Iowa at Washington (Friday)
- Iowa St at BYU (Friday)
- INDIANA at Nebraska (Lean)
- Sacramento St at BOWLING GREEN (Lean)
- Texas A&M at MISSOURI (Official pick)
- Arizona at West Virginia
- Tulane at Army
- UCF at Oklahoma St
- Wake Forest at NC State
- North Carolina at Pittsburgh
- Ball St at Northwestern
- South Carolina at Florida
- Old Dominion at Appalachian St
- Miami Ohio at Massachusetts
- HOUSTON at Kansas St (Official pick)
- Illinois at Michigan St
- Kent St at Western Michigan
- Central Michigan at Ohio
- Tulsa at Navy
- Virginia Tech at California
- Buffalo at Toledo
- Duke at Georgia Tech
- Ole Miss at Vanderbilt
- Charlotte at North Texas
- Eastern Michigan at Akron
- Stanford at Notre Dame
- Texas vs Oklahoma (Neutral Site)
- UCLA at Oregon
- Connecticut at Temple
- Rice at East Carolina
- Maryland at Ohio St
- Tennessee at Arkansas
- San Diego St at Oregon St
- Nevada at UTEP
- Coastal Carolina at Marshall
- North Dakota St at UNLV
- UAB at Memphis
- LSU at Kentucky
- USC at Penn St
- Air Force at NORTHERN ILLINOIS (Lean)
- Syracuse at Virginia
- James Madison at Georgia Southern
- Louisiana at Louisiana Tech
- GEORGIA at Alabama (SEE FULL PAGE GAME ANALYSIS) (Lean)
- Minnesota at Purdue
- Kansas at Utah
- BOISE ST at Fresno St (Lean)
- Hawaii at Arizona St
1. Troy -10.5 Southern Miss (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Troy -9
Vegas Implied Score – Troy 30.5 Southern Miss 19.0
As the great Brad Powers would say, we need another data point on these two teams. Troy is a bit of a mystery as the Trojans are coming off a pair of tough road games (both losses) and will certainly appreciate playing at home against a softer opponent. Southern Miss played its best game of the season last time out against Tulane and came very close to pulling a major upset. Slight preference to the dog, but note that Troy has won and covered five straight in the series.
No leanage
2. Jacksonville St -3 Kennesaw St (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Jacksonville St -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Jacksonville St 26.75 Kennesaw St 23.75
Jax State will be looking to avenge last year’s loss in the CUSA Championship Game to Kennesaw St, and the good news for them is that Kennesaw’s defense isn’t the PENETRATION monster it was last year, nor is there an Amari Odom waiting at QB. Jax State QB Caden Creel is doing more damage through the air, but the rushing attack is down a notch without the great Cam Cook. The Cocks own the much better YPP margin, but Kennesaw St has played the tougher schedule. Let’s see if some “sharp” money comes in on the Owls and takes the line below -3.
No leanage
3. Florida International -6 New Mexico St (46.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – FIU -5
Vegas Implied Score – Florida International 26.25 New Mexico St 20.25
FIU is playing lights-out defense right now, allowing just 4.01 (!) YPP (#5 FBS), and the Panthers have been particularly stingy against the run. QB JJ Kohl has been okay but has made a few too many mistakes (5-6 TD-to-INT ratio). New Mexico St doesn’t stack up to FIU on a net YPP basis but has played the tougher schedule. We prefer the home team a bit based on the play of the defense, and note that New Mexico St is just 2-12 SU on the road under HC Tony Sanchez.
No leanage
4. Western Kentucky -2.5 Missouri St (55.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Western Kentucky -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Western Kentucky 29.0 Missouri St 26.5
Yikes. WKU has played a tough schedule but has been absolutely cremated on a few occasions, and when the Hilltoppers dropped in class last time out at New Mexico St they lost 34-13 despite outgaining the Aggies in that event. Sacks and turnovers were the killer. Missouri St is off a bye, which helps, and the offense has looked better than we thought it would. Same with the defense. As the INTREPID Joe Lisi might say, we originally thought this would be a SMEEAAAAAASH play on WKU, but after some serious digging, it appears they might really stink this season.
No leanage
5. Liberty -13.5 Sam Houston (52.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Liberty -12
Vegas Implied Score – Liberty 33.0 Sam Houston 19.5
We see a little line value in backing the dog in this game, especially if the line ever gets to +14, but it’s a bad matchup for Sam Houston. Liberty has rumbled for an average of 252 (!) YPG on the ground, and the Bearkats have one of the worst run defenses in college football. On the other side of the football, Sam Houston runs a throw-heavy offense, but the Flames are excellent against the pass (#11 FBS pass-efficiency defense) and have allowed only one opponent to complete more than 50% of its passes.
No leanage
6. Arkansas St -1.5 South Alabama (57.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Arkansas St 29.5 South Alabama 28.0
We’ve got the fair number on this BAD BOY at a pick ’em, and why not? The last two games between these squads were decided by a combined 3 (!) points. For the record, Arkansas St won both of those contests. South Alabama is the much more dangerous offense as the Jaguars are balanced and can SCORE the FOOTBALL. The bad news is that their defense allows well over 7 yards per play (last in the Sun Belt), and they just allowed the corpse of ULM to put up 35 points. The Jags have played much better at home, and it’s desperation time for the Red Wolves after losing on the final play against the Cajuns last week.
No leanage
7. UTSA -7 USF (50)………..MEGALOCKS line – UTSA -7
Vegas Implied Score – UTSA 28.5 USF 21.5
We’ve spent way too much time on this BAD BOY and sadly don’t think we’ll get to the window. UTSA is a much better team at home and, as the INTREPID Phil Steele points out, had a 21-game home conference winning streak snapped by Army at the end of last season. UTSA has played the much tougher schedule (#79 vs. #143), and you know we’re almost always up for a good USF fade, but even though the Bulls have played a disgusting set of offenses, they still have the best defense in this game by a wide margin. UTSA is near the bottom of the conference in total defense (407 YPG), and the Roadrunners are dead last when it comes to stopping the run (199 YPG). USF QB Michael Van Buren still hasn’t thrown an INT, and the Bulls will be able to move the ball and be relatively annoying. The question becomes: can they prevent this from turning into a shootout? If they can’t they’re dead meat.
No leanage
8. Louisville -3.5 Florida St (59.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Louisville -5
Vegas Implied Score – Louisville 31.0 Florida St 27.5
Our ratings prefer the Cardinals in this spot, but you have to wonder where the team is at after dropping a pair of ACC games by a combined six points (NC State and Wake Forest) that essentially killed their chances of reaching the ACC Championship Game. Florida St looked really good last week when they drilled Virginia, but here’s a fun fact: Florida St hasn’t won a road ACC game since 2023, the same year the Seminoles won the ACC Championship Game with a victory over — wait for it — LUA-VUH.
No leanage
9. San Jose St -6 Wyoming (43.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – San Jose St -7
Vegas Implied Score – San Jose St 24.75 Wyoming 18.75
San Jose St is fresh off a win over Hawaii, but what looked like a ROCKING CHAIR winner for MEGALOCKS junkies early on (up 14-0) turned into a bit of a sweat in the second half. The Spartans are at least trying to run the ball with Jabari Bates to complement QB Dream Weaver and the passing attack, but the run blocking has been poor and they’ve allowed seven sacks over the last two games. Wyoming has been an abomination this year, particularly on the road, and QB Tyler Hughes owns a gross 2-6 TD-to-INT ratio. Both defenses have been solid. We prefer San Jose St, but it’s not easy laying a TD with these guys.
No leanage
10. Utah St -5.5 Washington St (44.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Utah St -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Utah St 25.0 Washington St 19.5
This is one of the first games we tossed overboard. Washington St is 1-4, but the Cougars have played a very tough schedule. Utah St is 1-4 and — wait for it — has also dealt with some very tough opposition. Both offenses are HOT GARBAGE. Both defenses are decent, all things considered. The only play we’d consider is the Under, but we’ll take a pass for now.
No leanage
11. Washington -3 Iowa (41.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Washington -1.5
Vegas Implied Score – Washington 22.25 Iowa 19.25
We believe that Iowa is the better team, but this is their toughest scheduling spot of the season. The Hawkeyes are coming off back-to-back MEAT GRINDERS against Michigan and Ohio St and now have to travel all the way out to the communist stronghold of Seattle to play in one of the toughest venues in college football. Iowa may have to roll with backup QB Jeremy Hecklinski (who looked okay in limited action against Ohio St), which throws a bit more variance into the handicapping stew. Washington has had a tough time running the football but has been stout against the run on defense.
No leanage
12. BYU -10.5 Iowa St (46.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – BYU -11
Vegas Implied Score – BYU 28.5 Iowa St 18.0
We really like the look of this BYU team, but they’ll have to win this one without star RB LJ Martin and stud LB Isaiah Glasker. QB Bear Bachmeier will be doing a lot of the heavy lifting on the ground along with a committee of RBs, and watch out for emerging star WR Legend Glasker. The ground game should still work well, as Iowa St was gashed by the run in losses to Utah and West By God Virginia. BYU isn’t as dynamic on offense without Martin, but the Cougars remain highly efficient (#4 FBS in third-down conversions). Iowa St has legitimate HOME RUN HITTER RB Aiden Flora in the mix, who’s quickly becoming one of our favourite players (594 yards, 8.4 YPC, 6 TD). He even threw (!) a pair of TD passes last week against the Mountaineers. We’re just not sure Iowa St QB Jaylen Raynor is going to have much success in a nasty road environment (6-4 TD-to-INT ratio). Let’s see if a -10 pops up later today and go from there.
No leanage
13. Indiana -7.5 Nebraska (47.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Indiana -9
Vegas Implied Score – Indiana 27.5 Nebraska 20.0
It’s time.
The defending champs get their first real road test of the season (apologies to Rutgers) as they travel to face undefeated CORN (5-0). Nebraska has whipped and beaten the FILTH of humanity thus far, and this is a major step up in class for a team that is on an 0-30 (!) run against ranked opposition according to the INTREPID Brad Powers. More importantly, Indiana is crushing it on the ground (253 YPG, 6.4 YPC) while doing an excellent job of stopping the run (64 YPG, #7). That edge in the trenches will pay dividends, especially if the expected windy conditions materialize. Indiana QB Josh Hoover has yet to throw an INT. Thinking about Indiana. Should have something on this game later today.
No leanage
Update
Lean — Indiana -7.5 -115
Consensus is -7.5 -115. You can still find -7.5 -110, but it’s not easy.
Posted 4:16pm Oct 9
14. Bowling Green -7.5 Sacramento St (44.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Bowling Green -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – Bowling Green 26.0 Sacramento St 17.5
WHOA, NELLIE. Bowling Green just SHOCKED THE WORLD with a road upset over mighty Miami Ohio. Sure, the RedHawks were down to their third-string QB, but it was a gutsy win for the Falcons. The THROW GAME came alive, and Bowling Green has entered the PENETRATION discussion after registering six (!) sacks in each of its last two games. The Falcons have played a much tougher schedule than Sac St (#45 vs. #128), and the Hornets have to travel well over 2,000 miles for this event. Sac St is coming off a bye while BG is playing for the sixth straight week. We could only LAY IT, but let’s see if some “sharp” money drives the line down to -7 and go from there.
No leanage
Update
Lean — Bowling Green -8.5 -108
-8.5 is consensus and listed virtually everywhere.
Posted 5:00pm Oct 9
15. Missouri -3.5 Texas A&M (48.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Missouri -6
Vegas Implied Score – Missouri 26.0 Texas A&M 22.5
Official pick – Missouri -3.5 -110
SEE FULL PAGE GAME ANALYSIS
16. Arizona -3 West Virginia (61.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Arizona -4
Vegas Implied Score – Arizona 32.25 West Virginia 29.25
The Mountaineers have shown they can run the ball on anybody (294 YPG, #3 FBS), but they’ve also demonstrated that their defense is a sad joke. They allowed almost 1,200 combined (!) yards in their first two Big 12 games (Oklahoma St and Iowa St), and that makes them a very untrustworthy outfit. Arizona makes the unique trip to Morgantown, West Virginia, which is a tough place to get a win, but the Wildcats have done a good job stopping the run thus far for what it’s worth (79 YPG, #11 FBS). Note that WV head coach Rich Rodriguez spent a number of seasons in Tucson leading the Wildcats.
No leanage
17. Army -3.5 Tulane (47.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Army -4
Vegas Implied Score – Army 25.5 Tulane 22.0
It’s a rematch of the 2024 Championship Game, when Tulane came to town and got blasted by the Black Knights. Army has played three close games in a row (combined margin of 10 points, one win and two losses) and can’t afford to drop another conference affair. Tulane sits at 2-2, with two close calls against lesser opposition in South Alabama and Southern Miss. This will be the Green Wave’s first taste of conference play.
No leanage
18. Oklahoma St -10.5 UCF (53.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma St -12
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma St 31.5 UCF 22.0
The Pokes are off a bye week, and the offense had been humming before the break, putting up 600+ (!) yards in consecutive games. They’ve looked great on offense and solid against the pass on defense. They got rolled on the ground by West By God Virginia, but that’s somewhat understandable. UCF jumped out to a 17-0 lead at Houston last week and choked it away. Now the Knights are playing another road game and will be on the gridiron for the sixth consecutive week. We definitely prefer the home favorite, but like a few other games on the short list, we’ll watch the spread and total today and go from there.
No leanage
19. Wake Forest -3.5 NC State (59.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Wake Forest -3
Vegas Implied Score – Wake Forest 31.5 NC State 28.0
Wake Forest deserves to be a small favorite in this game after upsetting LUA-VUH and destroying Stanford last week. Actually, the Demon Deacons have looked pretty good on both sides of the football all season. It’s worth noting that Wake is 2-0 on the road, but those wins came by a combined five points. NC State has also rebounded nicely from the DEBACLE of a loss to Vanderbilt earlier this year. The road team has won and covered the last three meetings in the series.
No leanage
20. Pittsburgh -3.5 North Carolina (47.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Pittsburgh -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Pittsburgh 25.5 North Carolina 22.0
Don’t look now, but the mighty Panthers are 5-0 and one of three undefeated teams in ACC play, along with Duke and YOUR Miami Hurricanes. This game is unbettable from our standpoint, as Pitt lost ace starting QB Mason Heintschel (14-1 TD-to-INT ratio) to a season-ending injury, and it’s not clear what to expect from backup Holden Geriner, although he looked okay in limited action against Virginia Tech. Pitt can still stuff the run, and UNC has had trouble putting together a strong 60 minutes.
No leanage
21. Northwestern -35.5 Ball St (52.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Northwestern -33
Vegas Implied Score – Northwestern 44.0 Ball St 8.5
WHOA, NELLIE. Northwestern just steamrolled Penn St by a score of 34-13 thanks to an impossibly impossible 413 (!) rushing yards in the debut of its beautiful newly renovated stadium. This is a clear potential letdown spot, but thankfully the Wildcats get to smack Ball St around before diving back into Big Ten play (at Michigan St). Ball St showed a bit of life against Toledo last week, but the Cardinals are still one of the MAC’s bottom feeders.
No leanage
22. Florida -12.5 South Carolina (61.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Florida -10.5
Vegas Implied Score – Florida 37.0 South Carolina 24.5
The Gators just got destroyed at Missouri, which came as a bit of a surprise given that, for a few weeks, they looked like the greatest team of all time according to some. South Carolina just lost to Kentucky by a point in heartbreaking fashion, and say what you want about the Cocks, they’ve played a nasty schedule — Kentucky, the Tide, and Mississippi St in their last three events. The rushing attack is humming, and they still have LaNorris Sellers at QB. They might even get stud DE Dylan Stewart back in the mix this week, but who knows. You have to be able to slow down Florida’s rushing attack to stay competitive with these guys, and the Cocks have been solid against the run (100 YPG, #29 FBS). Dog or pass for us, and we’ll see if we get some steam in the market over the next day or so to drive the line up.
No leanage
23. Appalachian St -9.5 Old Dominion (48.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Appalachian St -10
Vegas Implied Score – Appalachian St 29.0 Old Dominion 19.5
We’ll have to hold off on this one at least for the time being. We like the Mountaineers, but they’re a very pass-happy team behind QB Malachi Singleton and the weather forecast looks wet from start to finish. The Under has been SMEEEAAAAASHED, but we’ll keep this one on our watch list for Friday. Note that ODU ranks dead last (!) in the nation in total offense, so the bad weather probably won’t help the Monarchs much. However, their defense has been decent (4.95 YPP, #3 Sun Belt).
No leanage
24. Miami Ohio -2.5 Massachusetts (47.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Miami Ohio -3
Vegas Implied Score – Miami Ohio 25.0 Massachusetts 22.5
Miami’s QBs are dropping like flies, and it cost them in a tough home loss to BG last time out. One more loss and their MAC dreams are cooked, if they aren’t already. UMass has played one of the easiest schedules in recorded history (#200, Miami Ohio #104), with its average opponent being comparable to Elon or Furman and not far off from Sacred Heart. We’re still proud of OUR Minutemen as they sit at 4-1 and are more than capable of pulling a minor upset. Tough call at this price point.
No leanage
25. Kansas St -2.5 Houston (55.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Houston -1
Vegas Implied Score – Houston 29.0 Kansas St 26.5
Our instincts were to play the home team until we dove deep into the handicapping waters. Kansas St is coming off a bye, while Houston is playing for the sixth consecutive week. That’s meaningful. But what’s also meaningful is that Houston has played the much tougher schedule (#40 vs. #131) and has been excellent at defending the run, which just so happens to be Kansas St’s bread and butter on offense. The Cougars have allowed only 11 running plays (!) of 10+ yards in five games. If they can slow down the Wildcats’ ground game, it’s going to be very problematic for the home team. We’d rather be catching points than laying a few as backers of Kansas St.
No leanage
Update – Official pick – Houston +2.5 -108
Consensus is +2.5.
Sent 4:35pm Oct 9
26. Illinois -2.5 Michigan St (49.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Illinois -1.5
Vegas Implied Score – Illinois 26.0 Michigan St 23.5
Not a game we’re interested in from a betting standpoint. These are both Big Ten bottom-feeders, and Illinois just laid an egg against Purdue a week after moving the ball very well on Ohio St. Michigan St is unbackable at this point.
No leanage
27. Western Michigan -13.5 Kent St (43.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Western Michigan -14
Vegas Implied Score – Western Michigan 28.5 Kent St 15.0
Western Michigan is understandably a notch down from last year’s championship team, but the Broncos showed some grit last week, fighting off a feisty Buffalo squad to pick up the win. Kent St and Ohio treated even the most diehard MAC fans (like us) to a gruesome feast for the eyes last week, and Ohio emerged with a 13-10 victory. Points should be at a premium here, but it looks like Vegas has already figured that out with a total of 43.5.
No leanage
28. Ohio -3 Central Michigan (46.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Ohio -3
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio 24.75 Central Michigan 21.75
Ohio escaped by the skin of its teeth last week at Kent St to move to 3-2, and the THROW GAME appears to be a problem. However, it was good to get RB Duncan Brune back, and the run defense has been decent. Speaking of which, that’s about all FIRE UP CHIPS can do these days, and they’ll keep hammering their heads against the wall and probably crack off a few big runs at some point. The underdog has covered five of the last seven meetings in the series.
No leanage
29. Navy -2.5 Tulsa (48.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Navy -3
Vegas Implied Score – Navy 25.5 Tulsa 23.0
Hard one to figure out. Tulsa has come back down to Earth since its upset win over Oklahoma St, but it hasn’t helped that starting QB Baylor Hayes missed some time. He’s back now, so that’s a plus. Navy is buried in the race for the American Conference crown, and the Midshipmen just lost to Air Force. That means they’re already looking ahead to a potential Armed Forces Bowl bid in December.
No leanage
30. Virginia Tech -9.5 California (54.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Virginia Tech -10
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia Tech 32.0 California 22.5
At first glance, the line might look a bit high, but we’ve adjusted for the uncertain status of Cal’s starting QB, RB1 Adam Mohammed, who didn’t play last week, and safety Kingston Lopa, who left the last game due to injury (leads the FBS with 5 INTs). Virginia Tech outplayed Pitt last week but committed four turnovers. While we’d like to back the Hokies against the corpse of Cal, it’s a long trip out to the communist den of California, and they’ll be happy to get out of there with a win any way they can.
No leanage
31. Toledo -19.5 Buffalo (54.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Toledo -18
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo 37.0 Buffalo 17.5
The Rockets did what they had to do last week vs Ball St and have a few more cupcakes to gobble up before the massive game with the Broncos on October 24th. Buffalo took mighty Western Michigan to the limit last week at home and lost a heartbreaker by three points. Now they’ve gotta travel to what’s probably the toughest road venue in the MAC. The line looks a bit rich to us but we’ll take a pass for now.
No leanage
32. Duke -7 Georgia Tech (48.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Duke -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Duke 27.5 Georgia Tech 20.5
Duke is clearly the better team in this matchup, but Georgia Tech is a bunch of desperate HOMBRES hungry for a win. Also note that the Yellow Jackets have won five straight in the series. The line looks about right.
No leanage
33. Ole Miss -10 Vanderbilt (59.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Ole Miss -10
Vegas Implied Score – Ole Miss 34.75 Vanderbilt 24.75
Ole Miss comes in off a much-needed bye week after playing back-to-back games against LSU and Florida. The most important thing for bettors to be aware of in this matchup is that the Ole Miss defense ranks DEAD LAST in the SEC in both total defense and YPP allowed. Their run defense is also the worst in the conference (195 YPG). Vanderbilt is nothing special, but the Commodores can be scrappy more often than not. The starting QB decision remains TBD as we approach press time.
No leanage
34. North Texas -27.5 Charlotte (59.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – North Texas -29.5
Vegas Implied Score – North Texas 43.5 Charlotte 16.0
Charlotte is one disgusting heap of humanity right now, and it’s not easy to watch or even look at their box scores. North Texas is coming off a dramatic road win at Tulsa and remains firmly in the thick of the American Conference race. We’re almost never interested in laying this kind of lumber, but if we’re gonna PLAY IT, we’re gonna LAY IT.
No leanage
35. Eastern Michigan -6.5 Akron (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Eastern Michigan -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Eastern Michigan 28.5 Akron 22.0
Not a game we’re going to get involved with this weekend. Eastern Michigan is coming off a win over the JUGGERNAUT known as UMass but has looked no better than a mid-tier MAC squad. Akron’s season is quickly spinning out of control, and this feels like a LAST STAND kind of game for the Zips. Note that HC Joe Moorhead is 8-6 ATS (0-1 this year) as a home underdog.
No leanage
36. Notre Dame -38.5 Stanford (54.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Notre Dame -35
Vegas Implied Score – Notre Dame 46.5 Stanford 8.0
The line has gotten a bit out of control, but we suppose that’s because Stanford’s injury report is now pushing 17 pages. Just a friendly tip if you plan on printing it out: toner is expensive these days. Also note that Stanford has played three good teams and lost 45-6, 35-7, and 57-3. Notre Dame has an epic road clash with BYU up next.
No leanage
37. Texas -8.5 Oklahoma (39.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Texas -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas 24.0 Oklahoma 15.5
Yes, we still call it the Red River Shootout! Sorry, Karen! Shootout! Pew Pew Pew. Rat a tat tat!!
The bad news is that neither of these teams seems capable of mounting much offense. Both rank in the bottom quartile of the SEC in YPP, while both stop units rank among the conference’s top four in YPP allowed. It seems like FREE MONEY to bank on the Under, but that’s a pretty low total. The last two meetings have been Texas wins by scores of 34-3 and 23-6. Neither QB is inspiring much confidence, and Oklahoma keeps barfing all over itself with turnovers. As crazy as it sounds, we’re looking forward to watching this game, but both the spread and total look about right. Our Gun to the Head selection (sorry again, Karen!) would have to be the Under.
No leanage
38. Oregon -11.5 UCLA (58.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Oregon -11
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon 35.0 UCLA 23.5
Oregon has faced three good teams (Boise St, Oklahoma St, USC), and as good as UCLA has looked so far, the Bruins have played a much weaker slate of competition. None of UCLA’s opponents have been able to run the football, and the two teams that could move the ball through the air (Cal and Purdue) had a lot of success. Oregon’s starting QB Dante Moore is likely to sit this one out, but if he does, Dylan Raiola has proven to be a fine backup specimen. Oregon has won 11 of the last 12 meetings and eight straight at home.
No leanage
39. Temple -3.5 Connecticut (54.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Temple -3
Vegas Implied Score – Temple 29.0 Connecticut 25.5
You know we love ourselves some SWEET Temple ACTION, especially after last week’s OUTRIGHT win on the road vs South Florida, but UConn has been better than expected under HC Jason Candle. Neither team can afford a loss given the shared goal of making a bowl game. The line looks about right.
No leanage
40. East Carolina -10 Rice (47.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – East Carolina -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – East Carolina 28.75 Rice 18.75
Rice has been very scrappy this season, and it all starts with a relentless ground game (244 YPG, #11 FBS) led by QB Jacurri Brown and a host of RBs. There are limited possessions when playing the Owls, so the ARRRR Pirates will have to be very efficient with the chances they get if they’re going to cover this number. East Carolina hasn’t looked very good thus far but has made a change at QB to Emory Williams. That makes TWO starting QBs in this game formerly of YOUR Miami Hurricanes. Dog or pass, but nothing for now.
And of course….The East Carolina Pirates game must always be available in Pirate Speak….
Arrr matey, Rice be a scrappy bunch o’ seadogs this season, an’ it all starts with a relentless ground assault (244 YPG, #11 FBS) led by cap’n Jacurri Brown and a whole crew o’ ball-carryin’ mates. There be precious few possessions when squarin’ off with the Owls, so the ARRRR Pirates best make every voyage count if they’re hopin’ to cover this number. East Carolina hasn’t looked like much treasure thus far, but they’ve handed the wheel to a new signal-caller in Emory Williams. That makes TWO startin’ QBs in this here battle who once sailed with YOUR Miami Hurricanes. Dog or pass, mateys, but we’ll be keepin’ our doubloons in our pockets fer now
No leanage
41. Ohio St -34.5 Maryland (56.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -31
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 45.5 Maryland 11.0
The spread is a wee bit too high for our liking, even though Maryland appears to have mailed it in sooner than we all expected. Don’t be surprised if Terps HC Mike Locksley gets an 18-year extension this week. Why? Well — because. Ohio St has a massive date with Indiana next week.
No leanage
42. Tennessee -13.5 Arkansas (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Tennessee -12
Vegas Implied Score – Tennessee 32.0 Arkansas 18.5
Tennessee’s defense has been fantastic, but the QB situation is a hot mess. Backup QB George MacIntyre gives them more stability, but perhaps a bit less upside. WOO PIG is the worst team in the SEC, but they’re at home and this is a lot of points. They’ve also faced a pair of TOUGH HOMBRES (Utah and Georgia) that skew their stats a wee bit.
No leanage
43. Oregon St -14.5 San Diego St (53.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Oregon St -14
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon St 34.5 San Diego St 21.0
You can read about how San Diego St managed to win last week in our AWARD-WINNING Week 5 Review post, and there will be more of the same guesswork for handicappers this week as the Aztecs continue to deal with the mumps, and possibly Dengue fever, SAUSAGE FINGERS, and mild indigestion. There’s simply no way of knowing how many guys will be sitting out this week. Oregon St is one of the most dangerous teams in the Group of Six, and we could only look their way at home. Let’s see if the line drops a bit before Friday at 5 p.m.
No leanage
44. Nevada -10 UTEP (49.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Nevada -10
Vegas Implied Score – Nevada 29.75 UTEP 19.75
UTEP has lost its last two games by a combined score of 94-14, but MINER NATION is hoping for a better effort in its Mountain West home opener. One ray of hope: UTEP has faced FOUR really tough teams (Oklahoma, New Mexico, Oregon St, Michigan) and the #19 schedule in the nation. Nevada checks in at #144. Maybe UTEP isn’t as bad as we think? Or maybe they are. The Wolf Pack are coming off a bye week, and prior to that dropped an OT heartbreaker to Air Force.
No leanage
45. Marshall -3 Coastal Carolina (58.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Marshall -1.5
Vegas Implied Score – Marshall 30.75 Coastal Carolina 27.75
Just a disgusting game to try and figure out. Marshall has been a big disappointment, as its three wins have all come against TOMATO CANS, and the Herd have allowed four of five opponents to put up 450+ yards of offense. Coastal Carolina’s season is going GLUG GLUG GLUG down the tubes after losing to Georgia Southern, and the Chants sit at 1-4 with the difficult task of trying to get hot and make a bowl game. Coastal Carolina is getting spicy QB play from Deuce Bailey, but that’s about it.
No leanage
46. North Dakota St -3 UNLV (48)………..MEGALOCKS line – North Dakota St -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – North Dakota St 25.5 UNLV 22.5
We prefer the Bison in this game as they’re one of the most balanced teams in the Group of Six and are very well coached. They’ve taken care of business so far (5-0) by an average score of 34-10, but they haven’t really been tested yet (#173 schedule; UNLV #91). Air Force is the only team to score more than 10 points against North Dakota St thus far. UNLV gave Memphis a good game in the opener and is coming off a win over Cal. We still don’t trust QB Jackson Arnold, but we must admit he’s playing good football right now (8-0 TD-to-INT ratio, 5 rushing TDs). This game is on our Friday short list. Stay tuned.
No leanage
47. Memphis -14 UAB (57.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Memphis -16
Vegas Implied Score – Memphis 35.75 UAB 21.75
It appears that we’re still higher than market on Memphis, and the Tigers will be looking to avenge last year’s loss to UAB, a defeat that essentially derailed their 2025 season. Then again, UAB has covered four straight in the series, and it’s hard to fade the underdog in the BATTLE FOR THE BONES rivalry game.
No leanage
48. LSU -8.5 Kentucky (52.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – LSU -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – LSU 30.5 Kentucky 22.0
The Tigers bring the #2 defense in the nation to Lexington (221 YPG), and the Cats are coming off a dramatic road win over South Cackalacky, just a few weeks removed from spanking Texas A&M on its home field. Kentucky QB Kenny Minchey has been really good (11-1 TD-to-INT ratio), and the Cats have a deep stable of RBs. The defense isn’t anywhere near the same level as LSU’s, and the Tigers can kill you with devastating balance between the run and the pass. LSU QB Sam Leavitt appears to be healthy heading into this one, but you never know with him. The home team has covered eight of the last nine meetings in the series. We prefer the LSU side but don’t think we’ll get to the window.
No leanage
49. Penn St -1.5 USC (54.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 28.0 USC 26.5
We’re not sure what we watched last week, but we’re pretty sure it was Penn St giving up more than 400 rushing yards to Northwestern in one of the ugliest losses the program has suffered in recent memory. That’s two Big Ten losses for the Nittany Lions, and can they get up for this one? A night game. A White Out. USC coming to town. We should get a max effort from Penn St, and USC is a good, but not great, running team. USC has also been pathetic under HC Lincoln Riley when traveling out East. Expect the Trojans to try to establish the run like they have the last two weeks, but they didn’t have much success against Oregon and Washington (3.6 YPC, 3.3 YPC). USC has the decisive edge at QB. Penn St has the big-time advantage when it comes to defending the pass. Smells like a coin toss to us and a game we’re very excited to watch. We’ll keep the wallet closed for this one.
No leanage
50. Air Force -7.5 Northern Illinois (46.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Air Force -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Air Force 27.0 Northern Illinois 19.5
Update
Lean – Northern Illinois +7.5 -112
Consensus is +7.5 -112. You can still find +7.5 -110. We noticed a +7 recently show up.
Posted 10:50am Oct 8
51. Virginia -9.5 Syracuse (49.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Virginia -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia 29.5 Syracuse 20.0
MEGALOCKS junkies were thrilled to see Syracuse up by 20 points last week vs UConn as our prayers were answered by having Amari Odom start at QB. He was fantastic. But then the defense collapsed faster than someone who just got jabbed with the latest safe and effective FAUCI SAUCE. Syracuse won the game 42-41, but sadly they couldn’t cover the -7. Now the Orange hit the road for the second week in a row, but the good news is that Virginia has imploded like a makeshift submarine hull allowing 15 (!) sacks in the last two weeks, and they just got cremated by Florida St 38-7. QB Beau Pribula doesn’t look 100% to us, but can Syracuse take advantage?
No leanage
52. James Madison -7.5 Georgia Southern (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – James Madison -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – James Madison 29.5 Georgia Southern 22.0
“James Madison doesn’t play football often, but when they do, they prefer to win the game.” — Dos Equis Guy
They are moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE right now (5-0) and are getting solid QB play from Cam Coleman (10-1 TD-to-INT ratio) along with a rugged effort from the defense. However, this is a tricky spot for the Dukes, as Georgia Southern has looked decent against much tougher competition (#72 schedule vs. #139) and this has been a HOUSE OF HORRORS for James Madison, who have lost six consecutive games in Statesboro. The home team has covered four straight in the series.
No leanage
53. Louisiana Tech -3 Louisiana (47.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Louisiana Tech -1
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana Tech 25.25 Louisiana 22.25
Tough game to get a read on. Louisiana’s defense has been excellent, with only one opponent (USC) managing to exceed 300 total yards and/or 100 rushing yards. The problem for the Cajuns is a limited offense, but at least they’ve got an excellent running QB in LUNCH Winfield, who’ll give the Bulldogs fits. Louisiana Tech has played the much tougher schedule (#24 vs. #142) but isn’t as seasoned as Louisiana.
No leanage
54. Alabama -1.5 Georgia (55.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – TBD
Vegas Implied Score – Alabama 28.0 Georgia 27.5
SEE FULL PAGE GAME ANALYSIS
Lean – Georgia +1.5 -108
+1.5 is consensus and listed virtually everywhere
Posted 1:35pm Oct 9
55. Minnesota -2.5 Purdue (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Minnesota -3
Vegas Implied Score – Minnesota 26.5 Purdue 24.0
Minnesota is in a tough situtational spot after booking a home win over Michigan for the first time since the Eisenhower administration and now have to get up for a road game vs Purdue who can really SCORE the FOOTBALL behind underrated QB Ryan Browne (8-1 TD to INT). BOILER UP is coming off a road upset over Illinois.
No leanage
56. Utah -15.5 Kansas (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Utah -14
Vegas Implied Score – Utah 33.5 Kansas 18.0
Utah is cooking and at home off a bye week, and the Utes rank #1 in the Big 12 in both YPP offense and YPP defense. Kansas has played the slightly easier schedule overall and isn’t chopped liver when it comes to the raw data. The Jayhawks rank #5 in the Big 12 in YPP offense and #2 in YPP defense, and they’re coming off a 55-zip win over MTSU in which they rushed for an impossibly impossible 480 yards (8.3 YPC). We think the line is a titch too high, but it’s not like Kansas has been a good bet as a road underdog under HC Lance Leipold (8-14 ATS). Dog or pass, but we need to mull this one over.
No leanage
57. Boise St -6.5 Fresno St (48.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Boise St -7
Vegas Implied Score – Boise St 27.5 Fresno St 21.0
Fresno St has home-field advantage, and they’ll need it in this one as the Broncos have looked great so far, including games against mighty Oregon, Memphis, and Western Michigan. RB Dylan Riley is well on his way to a 1,000-yard campaign (685 yards, 6.3 YPC), and QB Maddux Madsen owns a stellar 11-0 TD-to-INT mark (18-9 LY). Fresno St has worked over four disgusting opponents in a row, and note that the stop unit gave up 344 yards on the ground to Rice and 412 through the air against USC. The Bulldogs are feisty, but they’ll need to be at their best on Saturday night to hang around. Boise is looking to avenge last year’s embarrassing home loss to Fresno St. Another one on our Friday short list.
Lean – Boise St -6.5 -118
-6.5 -118 is consensus
-6.5 -115 to -122 is the common range
Posted 9:40am Oct 9
58. Arizona St -20.5 Hawaii (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Arizona St -18.5
Vegas Implied Score – Arizona St 36.0 Hawaii 15.5
Arizona St was WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE last week as the Sun Devils got destroyed by the Baylor Bears, although truth be told, we didn’t think the final score would be 55-19. Normally this would be considered a sandwich spot with Texas Tech up next, but Arizona St will certainly be motivated after that ugly loss. The offense is capable of doing damage. The defense looks sketchy. Hawaii lost a close one at home to San Jose St last week, and while the offense continues to sputter, the Warriors have allowed just 22 PPG over their last four outings.
No leanage
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’ll start the season investing 25% more on these plays in comparison to our ‘leans’ or smaller plays. The 25% increased risk size may change during the season as we take stock of how things are going. We’ll typically have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that it’s not one of our favorite plays of the week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards. We’ve used this terminology for over 20 years, so as annoying as the word ‘lean’ may be, we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’. We’ll usually post between 5 and 10 of these plays per week.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.