ALAMO BOWL PREVIEW – OKLAHOMA ST vs COLORADO
COLORADO 3 OKLAHOMA ST (62.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Colorado -3.5 Sagarin ratings – Colorado -5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Colorado 32.75 Oklahoma St 29.75
The Game
Remember the Alamo Bowl.
Last season the Oregon Ducks were up 31-0 at the half and found a way to lose the game to TCU in a 3-OT game for the ages. With Colorado and Oklahoma St going at it this season, there is a good chance that we get another really good game with an exciting finish.
Colorado had a fine 10-win regular season and made it all the way to the PAC 12 Title Game. They lost to the Huskies, but still have to be proud of what they achieved. A win over Oklahoma St would put a stamp on the season. The Cowboys finished up at 9-3 with losses to the Sooners and Baylor. And a “loss” to Central Michigan. The defense was sketchy but the offense was sizzling.
The Match-Up
Colorado offense vs Oklahoma St defense
The Buffs look to have no problem navigating the Cowboys’ defense. QB Sefo Liufau makes the offense really hum and he should be fully healed (ankle) for one more game. Not too many people know about RB Phillip Lindsay but he banged out almost 1,200 yards rushing and 16 TDs. The Buffs run game is really good with Liufau and Lindsay on the field. Colorado has 5 players with 30+ receptions and they spread the ball around really well. WR Shay Fields is quite capable of crossing the 1,000-yard mark in this game (845, 16.3, 9 TD).
Oklahoma St had trouble on defense for most of the season. They finished up ranked #108 in total defense and were equally shaky against the run (#91) and the pass (#88 pass efficiency defense). The Cowboys picked off 13 passes (#3 Big 12) and will have to hope for some mistakes.
Oklahoma St offense vs Colorado defense
QB Mason Rudolph is more than capable of keeping the Cowboys in this game, but it is going to depend greatly on maintaining balance with the offense, and preventing the Buffs from getting too much PENETRATION as they were #26 in the FBS in sacks per game. The Cowboys gave up a lot of negative plays but did some serious damage when Rudolph had some time to throw. James Washington is one of the most explosive WRs in college football as he averaged almost 20 yards per catch (1,209, 9 TD) and he is best of a number of really good options in the passing game. The Cowboys were #10 in the FBS in passing but just #73 running the football. They still had a 1,000 yard rusher (Justice Hill, 1042).
The Colorado defense is very formidable against the pass and held their opponents to under 50% completions in more than half of their games. And they played some pretty good passing teams. Overall, the Buffs were #3 in passing efficiency defense and match-up very well with the explosive Okie St passing game. Mason Rudolph only tossed 4 INTS in 416 attempts (!) during the regular season. If the Cowboys can get any kind of running game going they have an excellent shot to win. Otherwise, it may be painful. The unknown ? DC Jim Leavitt is off to Oregon and his absence may or may not have an impact. Hard to say.
Motivation / Intangibles
Oklahoma St – The Cowboys were in the Big 12 title chase for most of the season. They ended on a sour note with a loss to the Sooners. Not sure how geeked up they will be to play Colorado, although if you do enough reading, you will hear that achieving a 10-win season is very important. GRADE – Below Average.
Colorado – The Buffs are playing in their first bowl game since 2007 and they have not tasted bowl victory since the 2004 Houston Bowl when they beat the WACKY UTEP MINERS. Many times, you can make the argument that a team in Colorado’s position would be poised for a letdown after losing a title game, but they should be pretty hungry. GRADE – Very good.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Colorado outscored their opponents 424-266 whilst the Cowboys outscored their foes 464-337…..Okie St PK Ben Grogan was only 1/4 from 40+ yards so hopefully they will not need to make a big FG late in the game…..Cowboys’ HC Mike Gundy is 6-4 in bowl games but has lost two of the last three.
Summary
Really tough game to call. We lean to the better defense and the more motivated (?) team.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Best play on the game: Colorado -3.
Underdog ML playable for small potatoes (Y,N) ?: YES