NC State Wolfpack 2017 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – NC State Wolfpack 2017 NCAA Football Preview

2016 Recap

2016 Record – 7-6

2016 ATS – 9-4

The Wolfpack rattled off their third consecutive winning season. They get full marks for beating North Carolina and Vanderbilt to finish the season. They were also painfully close to SHOCKING the WORLD but missed a short FG that would have netted them a win over Clemson on the road. They are going to need to step up their game to compete in one of the toughest divisions in all of college football. <grabs popcorn>

2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

Atlantic Division – #4

Atlantic Coast Conference – To be determined

OFFENSE

The Wolfpack have averaged 400+ yards per game in all four of HC Dave Doeren’s seasons in Raleigh (417,413,409,404). There is potential for this group to be the best yet.

QB Ryan Finley did a good job last season. He threw for over 3,000 yards and only tossed 8 INT in over 400 attempts. The forecast for 2017 looks pretty good. NC State allowed only 17 sacks last year and return 4/5 starters to a good and yuuuuuge offensive line. That means even better protection for Finley, and theoretically, a good running game.

The Wolfpack will be without their 1,100 yard rusher from last campaign Matthew Dayes who was a late round NFL draft choice. MEGALOCKS ACC INSIDERS tell us that the best bet right now is a RB by committee approach. It would help if a true #1 emerges and time will tell. The WR group is very experienced, and overall, NC State returns the top-4 in receiving yards from last year’s offense.

DEFENSE

NC State has shown improvement from a points-per-game perspective in each of the past three campaigns, from 30/game in 2013 down to 23/game in 2016. Eight starters are back this season giving the Wolfpack a legitimate shot at jamming this streak to a “four-seasoner”.

We are very excited about the their ability to disrupt offenses and apply PENETRATION. The defensive line features 4/4 returning starters including star DE Bradley Chubb who tallied 10.5 sacks and 23 TFL in 2016. There is serious size in the middle. Last season NC State allowed only 109 yards rushing per contest (#8 FBS) and they should be stellar again.

SPECIAL TEAMS

This might be a problem area. Kyle Bambard only made 5/10 FG during the 2016 campaign and the Wolfpack were ranked #105 in net punting. The kicking game will have to get better. KR Nyheim Hines is back and he had a 100 yd KR TD last season.

Potential ATS Trouble Spots

September 30 – SYRACUSE. A tasty Florida St / Louisville sandwich affair.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

NC State suffered four losses by a TD or less last season. Argh. As MLB DFS gurus would say – “Positive regression” (?) is coming. K.

HC Doeren has a DOCUMENTED “never beat those guys” streak vs Clemson, Florida St and Luavuhh (0-11).

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 8.0

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the WOLFPACK a 8.0 ATS Value Rating (Excellent) this season.

It is always painful to sport the overused saying of “now or never”, but to be honest, we feel like the Doeren regime needs a double-digit win season to meet expectations. Grab nine victories during the season and scoop a bowl win. Beat a high-profile conference foe. The team has a ton of experience and should be a handful.

From an ATS perspective, we feel like this team may go overlooked. The fact that the defense looks really good limits the potential for back-door covers. The offense should be decent enough to keep them in every game. The Wolfpack had an 8-5 mark ATS in 2014 and they were 9-4 vs the number last season. We see similar success in 2017.

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