South Florida Bulls 2017 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – South Florida Bulls 2017 NCAA Football Preview

2016 Recap

2016 Record – 11-2

2016 ATS – 7-5-1

The Bulls had a really good season but it could have been a lot better. They finished up the regular season with 10 wins but missed out on the outright conference title due to a loss vs the TEMPLE JUGGERNAUT that would not be denied. They took care of business in the Birmingham Bowl beating a scrappy South Carolina team in OT.

WHO HAVE THEY BEAT GUY is really annoying, but in reality, that loser may have a point in this case. What was the big victory ? Navy at home ? at Memphis ? Beating South Carolina ? The missing ingredient was a signature win or accomplishment in the form of an AAC crown. New HC Charlie Strong and friends take over the show in Tampa this season.

2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

East Division – #1

American Athletic Conference – To be determined

OFFENSE

That was fun to watch. 44 points and 511 yards per game kept the scoreboard operators busy. The Gulf Coast Offense looks like it is here to stay. And guess what ? The Bulls are hoping to increase the tempo this season.

MEGALOCKS Platinum Plutonium members know how highly we think of QB Quinton Flowers. All hid last year was throw for over 2,800 yards and 24 TD while rushing for 1,530 and another 18 (!) TD on the ground. In fact, Flowers was 2nd in the FBS in QB rushing yards to only Heisman winner Lamar Jackson. Pure and simple. He is a devastating weapon.

RB Marlon Mack left early for the NFL and that leaves a big hole to fill. Mack broke the school record for rushing yards in a season and the Bulls will have to find a lot of production from the backs that remain. It looks like D’Ernest Johnson and Darius Tice are the leading candidates as we go to press. South Florida will also miss last season’s #1 WR Rodney Adams but they do have some young talent to work with. They also boast a dangerous receiving TE in Mitchell Wilcox.

The offensive line is yuuuuuuge and returns 3/5 starters. They paved the way for 6.5 (!) yards per carry (thanks in large part to QB runs; departed RB Mack) and should be solid again in 2017. They also did a fine job in pass protection allowing only 15 sacks on over 350 team attempts. Breaking in a new LT and playing under a new OL coach are a couple of concerns.

DEFENSE

The Bulls need to do a much better job on defense if they want to win the AAC crown. They were equally smelly vs the run (196 yards per game) and the pass (286) while yielding almost 6 (!) yards per play. They also need to find a way to put more pressure on the QB as they only managed to total 31 sacks in 2016.

South Florida boasts 9 returning starters and that experience should pay dividends in 2017. The entire starting DL is back for action as is leading tackler LB Auggie Sanchez who is 2nd among all active FBS players in career tackles. #Leadership. The secondary returns essentially intact and CB Deatrick Nichols garnered 2nd Team AAC honors in 2016.

SPECIAL TEAMS

We like the look of this group. PK Emilio Nadelman was 7/7 (DOCUMENTED 100%) on FG before getting injured last year. P Jonathan Hernandez is solid and D’Ernest Johnson was a 1st team AAC punt returner in 2016 (11.8 a pop, 1 TD).

Potential ATS Trouble Spot

September 15 – ILLINOIS. Home date undoubtedly as a decent favorite. The big revenge game with Temple is on deck.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

South Florida outscored opponents 158-80 in the first quarter last season (+78). That was their most efficient frame.

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the BULLS a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.

The Bulls have improved their win total in three consecutive seasons. How is this for progression – 2,4,8,11 ? If they can make it a FOUR BAGGER that would mean one heck of a season. Are you allowed to say “heck” on the internet ?

The offense is going to be explosive but it’s hard to say how quickly all of the new faces will gel. Thankfully, the schedule is really easy this season, and there should be plenty of time to get things ironed out. The Bulls will have to make significant improvements on defense to have a shot at a big ATS season.

There is always risk having high expectations when a new HC comes aboard. The Bulls rattled off a 17-8-1 record vs the number over the past two seasons (68%) but it might be a bit much to expect similar success this year. We are cautiously optimistic but will be extra careful when laying a ton of points.

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