College Football Predictions – Navy Midshipmen 2017 NCAA Football Preview
2016 Recap
2016 Record – 9-5
2016 ATS – 9-5
You know times are good when you can rattle off 9 wins and consider it a disappointing season. Navy went into the AAC Title Game vs Temple sitting at 9-2 with wins over Houston and Notre Dame to their credit. Navy had their QB injured in the first half and the Owls rolled 34-10 to win the conference championship. It was downhill from there as Navy lost to arch rival Army and then Louisiana Tech in the Armed Forces Bowl to finish at 9-5.
2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #4
American Athletic Conference – To be determined
OFFENSE
Who says this offense is boring ? Navy has averaged 37 and 38 points per game the past two seasons while ripping opponents apart with their precision. Last season the Middies had DEVASTATING balance (for them) as they averaged 128 yards passing per game to go along with the 310 on the ground.
Navy had a tough time keeping their quarterbacks healthy last season. The good news is that Zach Abey was a WEAPON in the Armed Forces Bowl (114 yards rushing, 2TD; 159 passing, 1TD) and that means the Midshipmen should be a handful on offense yet again. Abey will certainly miss one of the best WR in program history (Jamir Tillman; #2 all-time receiving yards) but the running game will be lethal.
In addition to Abey’s ability to run the football, FB Chris High is back this season, and he led the running back group in rushing yards in 2016. QB and FB are rock solid. And you KNOW they will find some dangerous weapons to take things to the outside. The OL returns only two starters but they always do a great job.
JUGGERNAUT ALERT – SB Darryl Bonner is a big play just waiting to happen. Bonner averaged 7.8 yards per carry and 27.8 (!) yards per reception last season. Look for him to hit a lot of yuuuge plays in 2017. <grabs popcorn>
DEFENSE
It was a bit of a hot mess last season. The Navy defense was ripped apart for most of the campaign while yielding 31 points per game. Eight starters return in 2017 and that means a lot more experience to go along with some fine talent. (ED note – SS Alohi Gilman announced in June that he is transferring to Notre Dame)
Ideally, the Middies will be able to get more pressure and PENETRATION. They have racked up 20+ sacks in consecutive seasons and they have the potential to make it a three-pack. The DL only returns one starter but they do have size at NT (Jackson Pittman). The LB group is really good and they bring back their top-3 tacklers from that unit. Last season’s leading tackler Micah Thomas garnered 2nd team AAC honors and DJ Palmore registered 6 sacks and 11.5 TFL. The Navy secondary has 3/4 returning starters (SS A Gilman will transfer – June news) and they should improve greatly in terms of pass defense (29 TD allowed and just 7 INT in 2016).
SPECIAL TEAMS
Navy features a really good PK and P combination. Bennett Moehring gets a MEGALOCKS SHOUT OUT for not having his leg fall off kicking all those extra points (see below). The return game is rarely super spicy.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot
Navy is pretty much always a good team to back. Hmm. If we had to pick a tough spot it would be the November 24 game at Houston. Not because of lack of motivation, but rather, due to the fact that it will be their 3rd road game in 4 weeks. And sandwiched between games with Notre Dame and Army (two weeks later). Oh, and Navy ended Houston’s undefeated campaign in 2016.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Navy scored a school record 531 points last season and PK Bennett Moehring was 65/68 on extra points. Not sure how he was able to walk after the two-week stretch in which they scored 141 (!!) points. Yes, that happened.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 9.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the MIDSHIPMEN a 9.0 ATS Value Rating (Excellent) this season.
“When you need an ATS win – trust Navy” …..Einstein
This should be an interesting season. Navy looks really good to us on paper and the AAC West division crown should be a legitimate goal. However, the schedule is going to be tough, as they only have five home games and finish with a tough three game stretch (at Notre Dame, at Houston, Army).
HC Niumatalolo has led the Midshipmen to five straight 8+ win seasons and they have bagged 20 wins over the past two campaigns. Over the last four years, Navy is a solid 34-19 (64%) vs the number, and they are truly a money-making machine more often than not. Normally we would stray from recommending a team that is on a yuuuuge ATS roll, but to be honest, it feels like this team will go under the radar yet again. ANCHORS AWEIGH, indeed.
Want more Navy football?
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News
http://www.capitalgazette.com/sports/navy_sports/
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http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/navy-midshipmen
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Twitter
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Accounts
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