Texas Longhorns 2017 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Texas Longhorns 2017 NCAA Football Preview

2016 Recap

2016 Record – 5-7

2016 ATS – 6-6

We never thought we would see the day that Texas had three consecutive losing seasons. The Longhorns finished up at 5-7 with the kick in the JUNK being a loss to the wacky Kansas Jayhawks. HC Charlie Strong has moved on and Tom Herman comes over from Houston via Ohio St were he has garnered quite the reputation. There is a lot of talent on board. Things are looking up.

2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

Big 12 – TBD

OFFENSE

The raw materials are certainly there for Tom Herman and OC Tim Beck to work some magic. QB Shane Buechele did a good job in our view in his first season while starting all 12 games. He threw for 21 TD but also tossed 11 INT. Highly-touted freshman Sam Ehlinger is waiting in the wings. MEGALOCKS BIG 12 INSIDERS will see how the situation develops over the summer. In any event, expect good production.

There is a lot of raw talent at RB and WR but the key to the season just might be the offensive line. They return 4/5 starters including a first team AA LT in Connor Williams. The Longhorns rushed for 239 yards per game last season (#17 FBS) and they should have a fun time running the ball again this year even without last season’s leading rusher D’Onta Foreman (2,000 !). Mike Warren will likely be the featured RB and he averaged 5.9 yards per carry in 2016. There is some talent stockpiled behind him on the depth chart. The WR group returns largely intact. The potential is there but nobody on the team had more than 420 yards receiving last season. Hopefully a star can emerge.

DEFENSE

It feels like there has been too much talent on hand for the Longhorns to have been this statistically poor the past two seasons. 31.5 and 30.3 points per game allowed. 190 and 219 yards rushing per game allowed. The good news ? 10 starters are back this year as are the top 8 tacklers from the 2016 campaign. It appears that new DC Todd Orlando is blessed with a lot of talented chess pieces. The Longhorns move to a 3-4 alignment but have a front seven filled with experience. LB Malik Jefferson has the potential to be a star, and overall, the LB group looks really good on paper. The secondary returns almost everyone from the 2016 starting unit and will almost certainly show improvement.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The best player in this unit is back – P Michael Dickson was a 2nd Team AA last season. The PK job is still up for grabs as we go to press. The return units were pretty dismal last season. Surely they can cobble together a dangerous group of specialists with all that talent on hand ? Amirite ?

Potential ATS Trouble Spot

Hard to say. The schedule actually sets up pretty well. We might be a bit leery of laying a gazillion points on September 9th when they are home to San Jose St before the big game with USC. We won’t be playing the Spartans that week, but if you like the Longhorns in that contest, grab em early before the money starts pouring in. Especially if they destroy Maryland on September 2nd.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

How awesome is their mascot ? You wanna say hi – yet – are strangely concerned about getting gored to death.

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 8.0

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the LONGHORNS a 8.0 ATS Value Rating (Excellent) this season.

Oh boy. We are drinking the Texas Kool-Aid. There is no doubt that college football is better when Texas is good. What can we reasonably expect this year ?

The Big 12 looks pretty competitive with no team drastically above another in terms of talent. Texas has some really nice upside. They return a lot of experience to Austin and the offense might be really impressive if the offensive line is as strong as we think. There is too much talent on defense for them to not drastically improve, and if you look at the schedule, only one game before they tackle Oklahoma should be much of a challenge for the defense (USC – September 16). That gives them a bit of time to settle in before the meat of the Big 12 docket.

We project a high probability of a winning mark ATS with an attractive ceiling. Hook ‘Em.

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