College Football Predictions – San Jose St Spartans 2017 NCAA Football Preview
2016 Recap
2016 Record – 4-8
2016 ATS – 6-6
San Jose St struggled all season and sputtered to a 4-8 record. Their only wins were against PATSIES Portland St, Nevada, UNLV and Fresno St. You know when you score 24.4 points per game and allow 34.7 that things are going to get ugly. New HC Brent Brennan will try to get this football program trending in the right direction.
2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Mountain West -TBD
Mountain Division – TBD
OFFENSE
Oh boy. Things are a bit sketchy. We are not sure who is gonna start at QB for the Spartans but our MOUNTAIN WEST INSIDERS note that RS freshman Montel Aaron looked pretty good in the 2017 Spring Game. There are other possibilities including sophomore Josh Love and transfer Michael Carrillo. Fall Camp may help separate the bunch. Or maybe not. Stay tuned.
The RB group returns last season’s leading rusher Malik Roberson (508) and Zamore Zigler (423) and they will run behind one of the most experienced offensive lines in college football. The WR group looks good and new OC Andrew Sowder promises to get the passing game cranked up. It should be noted, however, that the Spartans yielded an FBS-worst 50 (!) sacks last season.
DEFENSE
The Spartans were ranked 10th in the Mountain West last season in both total defense and run defense. New DC Derrick Odum changes the unit to a 3-4 alignment and has eight returning starters on hand. Those players include last campaign’s leading tackler MLB Frank Ginda and a fantastic CB in Andre Chachere who was recognized as a 1st Team MW performer in 2016. The Spartans have the potential to be a lot better on defense but we still worry about their ability to get PENETRATION as they have not tallied more than 23 sacks in any of the past four years.
SPECIAL TEAMS
San Jose St has a rock solid kicking game. P Michael Carrizosa was an AA in 2015 and PK Bryce Crawford made 16/18 (!) FGs last year. The return teams could use some extra spice.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot
October 14 – at Hawaii. This will be their 4th road tilt in six weeks with a bye week on deck. Those road games will have included meat grinders at Texas and Utah. Crazy things happen on the island but a yuuuuge effort here would be a tall order. <grabs popcorn>
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Spartans have given up a whopping 88 sacks over the past two seasons.
San Jose St has not lost a bowl game in 30 years. The last time they tasted bowl defeat was in the – wait for it – 1987 California Raisin Bowl when they were hosed by the refs and lost 30-27 to Eastern Michigan. (Ed note: not sure they were hosed – just makes for a better story)
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the SPARTANS a 3.5 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
We are interested to see how this season works out. The Spartans have a new coaching staff, new schemes on both sides of the ball and a yuuuuuge unknown at QB. That is a lot of uncertainty for us to give them anything other than a below average grade.
Having said that, the defense might make a big step forward, and if that is the case the Spartans could manage to stay inside a lot of big numbers. We can’t imagine looking at these guys for a potential play until after they finish the back-to-back games with Texas and Utah in September.
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