LSU Tigers 2017 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – LSU Tigers 2017 NCAA Football Preview

2016 Recap

2016 Record – 8-4

2016 ATS – 6-6

Four losses. Wisconsin. Auburn. ROLL TIDE. Florida. All reasonable, and yet, it seemed strange because the Tigers often pull a lot of those out of the fire. They finished the campaign in style hanging FITTTY on Texas A&M and holding the explosive Louisville Cardinals to just 9 points. Long-time HC Les Miles was let go during the season and Ed Orgeron stepped in during the season and will lead the team in 2017.

2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

SEC – TBD

West Division – TBD

OFFENSE

This looks promising. OC Matt Canada comes over from Pitt where he had the Panthers lighting up the scoreboard at the clip of 41 points per game. LSU has only hit 30/game three times in the past seven seasons.

It is pretty awesome when you lose an amazing talent like RB Leonard Fournette and still be in fantastic shape with Heisman candidate Derrius Guice leading the way. Guice was amazing last season rushing for 1,387 yards and 15 TDs at a NUTSO 7.6 yards per attempt. What is even more NUTSO ? There were FOUR games in which he carried the ball FIVE times or less. We cannot wait to see what he can do in a full season. They do not have proven depth at RB but the offensive line returns 3/5 starters and should be excellent yet again.

The Tigers only return one player that recorded double digits in receptions last year. There is talent on board at WR but it is anyone’s guess how productive they will be in 2017.

DEFENSE

LSU was lights-out on defense in 2016 allowing just 15.8 points per game (#5 FBS). DC Dave Aranda did a masterful job in his first season in Baton Rouge but only has five starters returning on defense (six if you count DE Christian LaCouture – injured 2016) and will be without the top five tacklers from the 2016 unit. They will return their best defensive player in LB Arden Key who tallied 12 sacks last season along with the majority of last year’s starting secondary. They have lost a lot of experience but will still be really good. (Note – As we went to press – LSU announced that LB Arden Key will not be ready for fall camp; recovering from shoulder injury)

SPECIAL TEAMS

Nothing much to see here. The Tigers need to break in a new PK but everyone’s else is back from the 2016 group. LSU ranked in the bottom half of the SEC in 2016 in both PR average and KR average. We would like to think that will change given all the speed on the roster.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot

Hard to pick one out. The schedule sets up well. They only play back-to-back road games once all season and there is a bye week between those two dates (Ole Miss, ROLL TIDE).

MEGAmazing Tidbits

The Tigers have not had a negative turnover margin since 2008 when they were (-1).

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.5

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the TIGERS a 4.5 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.

This is a tough team to gauge. Any team able to run the ball like LSU is automatically going to have our attention. We are a little concerned about the combination of QB Etling and the inexperienced group of WRs. It is also hard to ignore the losses on the defensive side of the ball no matter how much talent is still on hand. Star LB Arden Key will miss the start of fall camp and MEGALOCKS LSU INSIDERS will be watching that situation unfold with great interest.

LSU has only TWO winning seasons against the point spread in the past 10 seasons. People like to bet on them. So do we ! Argh. Be patient. They may slip a bit under the degenerate radar if ROLL TIDE and Auburn start off red hot.

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