Florida Gators 2017 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Florida Gators 2017 NCAA Football Preview

2016 Recap

2016 Record – 9-4

2016 ATS – 6-7

Another SEC East title and another loss to ROLL TIDE. We prefer to look at the glass as being HALF FULL and the Gators need to be given credit for taking down another division crown despite often comical QB play and not having a 1,000-yard rusher or 800 yard receiver. The defense was lights out in 2016 but the team could not hold up for four quarters against ROLL TIDE in the SEC Championship Game.

2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

SEC – TBD

East Division – TBD

OFFENSE

Ok, dudes. You HAVE to be better than #116 in total offense if you wanna have aspirations of winning the SEC. Yes, they still finished ahead of JUGGERNAUTS North Texas and Tulane in that statistical category, but they need to give the defense some help. Amirite ???

The Gators have an ongoing QB competition that will continue for the foreseeable future. Newcomer Malik Zaire (Notre Dame pedigree) will battle with Feleipe Franks and Luke Del Rio for the starting gig. The starting QB for the season opener is unknown but we do know that the QB play will be better than last season’s borderline atrocity. The top-3 in the RB rotation return this season which is great news. Hopefully the Gators can get the running game rolling with a healthier and experienced offensive line. Don’t forget that Florida has ranked LAST and 2nd LAST in rushing offense in the SEC the past two seasons. We are hopeful yet skeptical.

We feel really good about the targets that the YET TO BE NAMED QB will have at his disposal. The top-3 WRs and starting TE return from last season’s team and we believe they will be a lot better with improved QB play. Let’s gooooooooo !

DEFENSE

The Gators’ defense has been particularly stout the past two seasons yielding less than 20 points per game on both occasions. Florida returns just 5 starters on defense and new DC Randy Shannon (yes, that Randy Shannon) will be without four of the top five leading tacklers from the 2016 defense. There is still a lot of talent on hand. A pair of starters return on the DL and Jabari Zuniga, Cece Jefferson and Jordan Sherit combined for 10 sacks last season. The Gators did lose a pair of starting LBs and an outstanding pair of CBs. They always reload but there is some serious talent that needs to be replaced.

SPECIAL TEAMS

WELCOME TO THE GOODY ROOM. The Gators have an amazing PK and punter duo. Eddy Pineiro made 21/25 FGs last season including 3/3 (!) from 50+ yards. Johnny Townsend is a really good punter. The return units were average last season but you know they have some firepower.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot

November 18 – UAB. This game appears in a South Carolina / Florida St sandwich. We are always leery of laying a billion points late in the season in non-conference games.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

Florida has beat Kentucky 30 consecutive times. That is the longest active streak in the FBS.

The Gators allowed only EIGHT (8) TD passes in 2016 and yielded just 45% completions. That my friends is off the charts.

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.5

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the GATORS a 5.5 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.

This is a tricky read. Who knows how the QB situation works out ? There is a ton of upside, that is for sure. The Gators have had a really hard time running the football the past two seasons so we cannot fully trust them. The defense still has talent but they have to replace some REALLY good players.

What does this all mean ? Florida is 14-12-1 ATS under HC McElwain and we expect a .500ish season against the point spread in 2017. There is a bit more upside than downside in our view. We are on the fence and that means will have a neutral view most weeks.

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