College Football Predictions – Arkansas St Red Wolves 2017 NCAA Football Preview
2016 Recap
2016 Record – 8-5
2016 ATS – 7-6
It was the worst of of times. It was the best of times.
The Red Wolves started the season with a brutal 0-4 run that included losses to Utah St and Central Arkansas, and let’s not forget, they were also destroyed in week one by Toledo (a 779,000 star MEGALOCKS POWER MOVE loser). It really started to come together as QB Justice Hansen got more comfortable. The Red Wolves finished off the season winning 8 of their final 9 games which got them a share of the Sun Belt Title. They ended the season on a positive note with an upset win over UCF in the Cure Bowl.
2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Sun Belt – TBD
OFFENSE
Arkansas St appears to be set at QB and ready to do some damage in the Sun Belt. Justice Hansen really came into his own last year and can only get better. The Red Wolves lose their top-2 WRs but return their excellent receiving TE Blake Mack who led the team in receiving yards last season and averaged 19.2 (!) yards per reception. We feel that Hansen will allow the less experienced receivers on the roster develop quickly. The Red Wolves return their 1-2 punch at RB including the DIMINUTIVE yet DEVASTATING Warren Wand (5 ft 5, 179) who led the team in rushing last year and also caught 24 balls.
The yuuuge concern is the offensive line which is one of the least experienced in all of college football. The entire starting unit from 2016 has departed and it is anyone’s guess how quickly these guys will gel. Starting off with games against Nebraska and Miami is going to be challenging.
DEFENSE
The Red Wolves were rock solid on defense last year allowing a mere 21.5 points per game (#2 Sun Belt) while finishing T6 in the FBS in sacks per game. This year Arkansas St returns only five starters to the mix but they have some really good players to build around. DT Dee Liner (some Alabama pedigree) is a load to deal with and DE Ja’Von Rolland-Jones had 13.5 (!) sacks last season and registered 20.5 TFL. They will miss DE Chris Odom (12.5 sacks – 2016) but we love the overall potential for the DL. Senior LB Kyle Wilson is back this year (15.5 TFL) but the secondary only returns one starter.
This is a pretty solid unit that should be a LOCK to finish top-3 in Sun Belt total defense.
SPECIAL TEAMS
This unit looks good. The return units performed well last season and have continuity. The Red Wolves need to introduce a new PK but bring back P Damon Foncham. This is easily one of the better special teams groups in the conference.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot
November 25 – at ULM. This is a look ahead spot for a potential DATE WITH DESTINY with Troy on December 2nd. ULM just might be in an upset-the-apple-cart mood.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Over the past two seasons the Red Wolves have been a WHITE HOT 15-1 (!!) in conference games while going 12-4 vs the point spread. HELL-O !?
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 7.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the RED WOLVES a 7.0 ATS Value Rating (Good) this season.
We always seem to like the outlook for this team. Our 2016 ATS Value Rating was 7.0 and they finished up at 7-6 vs Vegas. Not a horrible call.
The first two games on the docket (Nebraska, Miami) have the potential to go very poorly if the offensive line fails to come together quickly. The schedule is REALLY manageable after week 2 and we could see these guys rattle off a bunch of wins in a row. We also believe there will be value with this team more often than not vs the point spread as they are not always top of mind with DEGENERATE NATION. We expect the defense and QB play to be really good. AWOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO. (wolf howl ???)
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