College Football Predictions – ULM Warhawks 2017 NCAA Football Preview
2016 Recap
2016 Record – 4-8
2016 ATS – 6-6
The Warhawks made it three consecutive losing seasons as they struggled to a 4-8 record in the first year of the Matt Viator era. The schedule was pretty bruising with seven road games including auto-losses at Oklahoma, Auburn and New Mexico. They did manage to win two of their final four games and enter this season with a lot more experience and confidence. Will it matter ? Let’s take a look.
2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Sun Belt – TBD
OFFENSE
The offense projects to be significantly improved this season if QB Garrett Smith can stay healthy. Smith is a dangerous passer and decent runner and should have a fine season considering that the Warhawks’ top-3 WRs are all back in the fold this year. There may even be an opportunity to hit more than a few big plays as both RJ Turner and Xavier Brown averaged 17+ yards per reception.
ULM also looks pretty strong at RB with their 1-2 punch (Ben Luckett, Thomas Koufie) that tallied 14 rushing TDs a season ago back for duty. They also add in ROLL TIDE transfer Derrick Gore. Icing on the cake ? The OL did a fine job last season (181 yards rushing per game; 18 sacks allowed) and bring back 3/5 starters in 2017. It feels like this offense is going to improve by about a TD per game. <grabs popcorn>
DEFENSE
It was downright UGLY last season as the Warhawks allowed 39 points per game at an astonishing 6.6 yards per play (#121 FBS). They were very inexperienced last season with only a pair of returning starters, but this season, they have eight starters back in the mix. Job #1 ? Stop the run – they allowed 260 yards rushing per contest in 2016 which ranked DEAD LAST in the Sun Belt. Job #2 ? Get more PENETRATION. They only managed to bag 17 sacks in 12 games last year.
Lack of experience should not be a problem this season. The Warhawks bring back their top-2 tacklers from last season (LB David Griffith, LB Chase Day) who also happened to be the top pair in TFL. The secondary will miss excellent CB Justin Backus, but overall, this is a defense ready to take a step forward in 2017.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Things look average across the board. PK Craig Ford hit 9/13 FGs last season but was just 3/7 from 40+ yards. The return units could use some additional spice.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot
October 28 – at Idaho. This will be the Warhawks 3rd road date in four weeks and the Vandals can be tough at home.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Warhawks have had a negative turnover margin in four consecutive seasons while going a combined (-32).
ULM has never won a bowl game. They have only appeared in one.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 7.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the WARHAWKS a 7.0 ATS Value Rating (Good) this season.
Call us crazy but we think ULM has an outside shot at making their 2nd bowl game in school history. The problem is yet ANOTHER brutal road schedule that includes visits to Memphis, Florida St and Auburn. Someone needs to get fired for this nonsense. Just kidding. Kinda. Not really. There is very little margin for error.
That does not mean these guys cannot be a money-maker. They are experienced and will be a lot better on offense with a healthy Garrett Smith at QB for a full season. We worry about their road record (2 wins 20 losses last 22….wut ?) BUT that does not mean they cannot be super annoying and cover some games even in blowout losses. We recommend keeping these guys on your watch list. CAW CAW ! (Warhawk sound)
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