Illinois Fighting Illini 2017 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Illinois Fighting Illini 2017 NCAA Football Preview

2016 Recap

2016 Record – 3-9

2016 ATS – 5-7

It’s been a long time between drinks.

Illinois bumbled and stumbled their way to a 3-9 record last year and that made it five consecutive losing seasons. Two of their wins were vs Murray St and Rutgers BUT they did have a nice home win vs Michigan St. New HC Lovie Smith probably did the best he could with the talent on hand. Can they take a step forward ? Let’s dive in.

2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

Big 10 – TBD

West Division – TBD

OFFENSE

The QB situation was downright disgusting last season as Illinois finished up 11th in the Big 10 in passing offense and 12th in completion percentage (51.1%). This year ? Oh boy. MEGALOCKS BIG 10 INSIDERS report that it appears to be Chayce Crouch getting the nod for the starting gig with Jeff George (yes, THAT JG) backing him up for the time being. Potential JUCO addition Dwayne Lawson will not be on the team in 2017.

Good news ? They bring back last year’s #1 WR Malik Turner and the oft-injured Mike Dudek. The running game was sneaky good in 2016 as Kendrick Foster averaged 5.7 yards per carry while picking up 720 yards on the ground. Reggie Corbin tossed in 523. The offensive line returns three starters so the running game may end up being pretty decent.

DEFENSE

Illinois gave up 32 points per game in 2016 and they need to take a pretty big leap forward if they want to sneak into a bowl game. They have given up 200+ yards rushing per game in three of the past four seasons and only return 6 starters to the mix. Uh oh. They will be without leading tackler Hardy Nickerson and their top FOUR sack producers from 2016. The secondary will be the strength of the defense with three starters back including excellent CB Jaylen Dunlap. It seems unlikely they will improve a lot this season given the way the front 7 looks on paper.

SPECIAL TEAMS

PK Chase McLaughlin hit 12/17 FGs last season but the punting and the return units were poor. Hopefully new punter and – shocker – an AUSSIE (Blake Hayes) can at least give them a shot in the arm.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot

MEGAmazing Tidbits

Illinois finished with a whimper last season getting outscored 118-24 in their final 3 games.

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 2.5

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the FIGHTING ILLINI a 2.5 ATS Value Rating (Poor) this season.

The feels like a rebuilding job even though the running game will be good. The issue ? It’s hard to stick to the ground attack if you are always behind on the scoreboard. They are going to need a surprising season from someone at the QB position to make a bowl game.

When it comes to the point spread it is hard to continuously fade teams like this because you are almost always going to be getting the worst of the number. We will not be interested in backing this team unless they show some signs of life.

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