College Football Predictions – Bowling Green Falcons 2017 NCAA Football Preview
2016 Recap
2016 Record – 4-8
2016 ATS – 4-8
Well that was interesting.
We knew that Bowling Green might struggle a bit in the first season of the Mike Jinks era but it was a little surprising to see them start the season with only one win in their first nine games. They did manage to win their final three games of the season to gain a little bit of confidence heading into 2017. Onward and upward.
2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
MAC – TBD
East Division – TBD
OFFENSE
QB James Morgan struggled at times in his freshman season (16-15 TD to INT) but did show promise. We think that Morgan will take a step forward in his sophomore campaign and he has a fine group of targets at his disposal. Almost every WR is back from the 2016 team including 1st Team MAC honoree Scott Miller (74, 968, 13.1, 10 TD). We expect a lot more than the 226 yards per game passing they tallied in 2016.
The running game was sneaky good last season. They put up a whopping 420 (!) yards rushing vs Kent St and 346 (!) vs Buffalo. Last season’s #1 rusher departs but they are still set up nicely with Josh Cleveland (649, 6.4) and Donovan Wilson (503, 5 TD). Our primary concern is the offensive line which only returns two starters after yielding only 25 sacks last season and paving the way for 4.3 yards per attempt.
DEFENSE
The Bowling Green defense was pretty smelly last year finishing 10th in the MAC in total defense (464) and dead last in scoring defense (38 points per game allowed). Improvement is required across the board. The Falcons bring back 6 starters on defense but it is still unclear where the PENETRATION will come from as no returning player had more than 5 sacks in 2016. They also lose leading tackler Trenton Greene who bagged 111 of those last season to go along with 8.5 TFL. There is hope in the secondary as three starters return but they are going to need help from the front seven.
SPECIAL TEAMS
BOMBS AWAY. Bowling Green has one of the best punters in college football Joe Davidson who garnered AA honors last season (45.8; 43.2 net). PK Jack Suder hit 9/12 FG attempts. The kicking game should excel again. The return units need some explosiveness.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot
September 23 – at MTSU. MAC play is on deck and MTSU can light you up, baby. Last season the Blue Raiders won 41-21 at Bowling Green.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Only two teams had a worse turnover margin than the Falcons’ (-16) last year.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the FALCONS a 4.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
MEGALOCKS NATION was understandably amazed when we gave the Falcons a 4.0 rating last season. They struggled to a 4-8 mark ATS……“Probably gonna stay clear of the Falcons for the most part against the number.”
What about 2017 ?
We have similar feelings. We think the offense is going to be a lot better even if the offensive line takes a while to gel. The MAC East is pretty soft overall. Thinking about the defense keeps us up at night. You are never gonna be safe backing this team with your hard earned CASH until the game is literally over. We will keep tabs on these guys but will probably avoid them unless we are wrong about the defense.
KAW KAW ! (Falcon noise ?)
Want more Bowling Green football?
Website
http://www.bgsufalcons.com/index.aspx?path=football
Forum
Free
http://www.ay-ziggy-zoomba.com/phpBB3/viewforum.php?f=3
News
http://orangeandbrown.blogspot.ca/
http://bleacherreport.com/bowling-green-state-football
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/bowling-green-falcons
Hashtag – #NestLevel, #AyZiggy
Accounts
https://twitter.com/BG_Football @BG_Football
https://twitter.com/jwagnerblade @jwagnerblade John Wagner