Week 1 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for detailed analysis this week.
Clemson -38.5 Kent St (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Clemson -37
Vegas Implied Score – Clemson 45 Kent St 6.5
Uh oh. It’s a meeting of totally awesome and MACtion punching bag. The defending champs get a tune-up before taking on Auburn and LUA-VUH. We cannot imagine Clemson wanting to lay the wood for 60 minutes (hello ?) but they may cover this spread by accident. You always have to assume the worst if you lay 38+ points and think that the underdog could get a miracle TD of some kind. Clemson SHOULD be able to score in the high-40s but who knows how effective the passing game will be ? And it should be noted that it has been a long time since Kent St allowed 30+ points per game so they can be scrappy. Wish the best for Kent St QB Nick Holley who is a really tough player and good runner. Yards are going to be hard to come by and hopefully he makes it out of Death Valley healthy.
Quick Take: Spread looks about right. Feels like Clemson or nothing. No action.
Minnesota -26.5 Buffalo (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Minnesota -23
Vegas Implied Score – Minnesota 39 Buffalo 12.5
We do see a bit of line value in this one no matter what you think of the Bulls. Buffalo was a DUMSPTER FIRE last season but should have a decent MAC-caliber defense and they also sport a QB with upside. Not to mention an experienced offensive line. The problem is we are not sure how many points they are going to score on Minnesota. And we are high on the wacky Gophers.
Quick Take: Feels like Buffalo or no play. Hold out for 27 or 28 if you want small potatoes action. Under may also be the way to go. We can’t go full steam on this game without seeing at least one game from each team.
Wisconsin -28.5 Utah St (48.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Wisconsin -30
Vegas Implied Score – Wisconsin 38.5 Utah St 10
We cannot deny it. Very tempted to play the boys from Madison. We are not very high on the prospects for Utah St but laying over 4 TDs is tough for us to do at any time – let alone the first week of the season. As we know – LB J Cichy is out for the season for the Badgers – and MEGALOCKS BADGERS WR INSIDERS tell us that WR Jazz Peavy is Q for this game. We pay a lot less attention to injuries than your average bear BUT note that Peavy is also a key component to their jet sweep attack. Utah St will fight to the final whistle and have an experienced QB. We worry about their DL and the ability to hold up against the monsters of Wisconsin for 4Q. Fun fact – Utah St has failed to score 10 points in only one game the past two seasons so maybe you take Utah St TT over 10 and hope for the best.
Quick Take: No play.
Auburn -35 Georgia Southern (53)………..MEGALOCKS line – Auburn -35
Vegas Implied Score – Auburn 44 Georgia Southern 9
The forecast calls for a full dose of pain and lots of Auburn rushing yards. We are very high on Auburn this season and new QB Jarrett Stidham should add a scary passing dimension to the offense. Georgia Southern will be fielding a very inexperienced team in this one and we worry about their ability to get anything going on offense. The defense only returns five starters.
Quick Take: No play. We were hoping for something in the 30-31 range. Oops. Not gonna happen. Spread seems about right. Best play might be the Auburn TT over for small potatoes.
Penn St -33 Akron (63)………..MEGALOCKS line – Penn St -31
Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 48 Akron 15
Maybe we are drinking the Penn St Kool-Aid ? Maybe we are just mad that QB Trace McSorley absolutely destroyed the Wisconsin defense ? That was a 2495723498 STAR MEGALOCKS LASER LOCK LOSER. The Nittany Lions are going to be great on offense. There is no doubt about that. We are not as sure about the defense but Phil Steele seems to think so – and he knows a lot more than we do. Penn St has a game with Pitt on deck and that is not an optimal set-up. Meanwhile, Akron struggled to a 5-7 mark last year but have an experienced team that will not lie down. QB Thomas Woodson is underrated.
Quick Take: No play. The more we think about it – Akron may be the way to go for small potatoes only if the line creeps up to 35 on game day.
Illinois -7 Ball St (58)………..MEGALOCKS line – Illinois -8
Vegas Implied Score – Illinois 32.5 Ball St 25.5
It’s the rematch we have all been waiting for. Illinois won a memorable game (28-17) back in 2007 and now Ball St gets a shot at redemption. Ok, maybe that is a bit overdone, but it is week one and we are excited.
The Illini enter year two of the Lovie Smith era and there are mixed signals this season in terms of the product they will put on the field. QB Chayce Crouch is a work in progress and they have a lot of freshmen on the roster. They only have two “easy” games on the docket before November so they better sack up and win this one. Ball St has a decent dual-threat QB and fantastic RB in James Gilbert (1,332) but they were dead last in the MAC in total defense last year. Only four starters return to the stop unit.
Quick Take: No play. Line feels about right. Ball St may be a live dog but we cannot back a team on the road with that kind of defense.
UCF -17 FIU (55)………..MEGALOCKS line – UCF 17
Vegas Implied Score – UCF 36 FIU 19
Things are starting to get really interesting in Florida with all the new faces at HC. Scott Frost enjoyed a successful first season at UCF taking them from 0 wins (!) to six and a bowl appearance. FIU had a very tough season in 2016 and brought in THE Butch Davis to begin righting the ship. You know it will happen eventually. The game will have a little extra meaning as two of the UPSTART programs in the sunshine state go head-to-head.
UCF looks really good to us. They are going to be a tough offense to stop with a more productive running attack and some really exciting weapons developing right before our eyes. FIU struggled on defense allowing 35 points per game last year while registering only 17 sacks. They have a couple of solid players on defense especially at LB but will they have enough to slow down UCF ? Last season the Knights SPANKED them 53-14. FIU has a nice senior combo of QB Alex McGough and RB Alex Gardner. We are just not sure what kind of success they will have against a talented front 7.
Quick Take: No play. Spread looks about right to us.
WASHINGTON -27 RUTGERS (52)………..MEGALOCKS line – Washington -24
Vegas Implied Score – Washington 39.5 Rutgers 12.5
It’s back-to-back season openers for the Rutgers/Washington combo this Friday night. The Huskies laid a 48-13 beating on the Scarlet Knights last season and Rutgers will look to make it a more competitive game. Can they do it ? Well our guess is that they are absolutely going to resemble an actual football team in 2017. They have a legit QB in Kyle Bolin and a couple of nice pieces on offense. The line is a bit of a question mark. We also think that HC Chris Ash will have them playing much better defense. The question is this. Will an improved Rutgers team (on paper) be able to handle a playoff-caliber team in week one ? Yes. We are still high on the Huskies. Granted, they will be without LB Azeem Victor due to suspension, but there are still a number of really good players on defense. And the offense looks “stupid good”.
Quick Take: No play. There is a little bit of perceived value with Rutgers IMO but we did not get this one in the +30 range so will take a pass.
COLORADO -5 COLORADO ST (66)………..MEGALOCKS line – Colorado -4
Vegas Implied Score – Colorado 35.5 Colorado St 30.5
Yes sireeeee ! It’s another Rocky Mountain Showdown as the JUGGERNAUT Colorado St Rams take on the 2016 JUGGERNAUT Colorado Buffaloes in Denver. This meeting is the best one in recent memory in terms of both teams being near the top of their games from a program perspective. Colorado St took Oregon St behind the woodshed to start the 2017 season (58-27) (!) while the Buffs will be taking part in their first game of the campaign. This has the look of a REALLY good game. Must-see-TV, yo.
This is a REALLY hard game to get a read on. 1) Rivalry game 2) one team has played a game, one team has not 3) the Buffs have a lot of new faces on defense and a new DC. We have the game lined right at the Vegas number. Even though Colorado St looked like the Patriots on steroids last game you cannot take much from one game AND we could argue that if anything the Buffs will have a bit of line value by the time the game starts.
The Rams offense is sick. The defense ? Hmmm. Not sold AT ALL. The Buffs look solid on offense but only have 3 returning starters on D and a new DC.
FWIW – the under is 8-1 L9 meetings. Not saying, just saying.
Quick Take: The feels like the ultimate coin toss. Gotta take a pass.
LSU -16 BYU (47)………..MEGALOCKS line – LSU -14
Vegas Implied Score – LSU 31.5 BYU 15.5
This match-up has been moved to the Superdome due to the horrific conditions in Houston. Best wishes to all impacted by that disaster. We have the game lined pretty much were Vegas has it now and just have very little feel for the game. One ALERT MEMBER made a really good post in our award-winning discussion forum summarizing the difficulty in handicapping this one – – Change in venue….BYU has played a game (advantage) but did not look very good (bad?)…..but yet could have been sleepwalking through the game ? Who knows ? Star LB Arden Key is out for LSU.
We feel that the LSU ground game and overall athleticism on defense will make it hard to BYU to exceed their team total.
Quick Take: No play. Best small potatoes move may be the BYU TT under when it becomes more widely available.
Massachusetts -2.5 Coastal Carolina (56.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Massachusetts -3
Vegas Implied Score – Massachusetts 29.5 Coastal Carolina 27
This is a tough one to gauge. Massachusetts is – I know this sounds nuts – in a must-win situation if they want to make a bowl game. They lost a tight one vs Hawaii on opening day. Logic dictates that they should be able to cover this short number BUT remember this is the FIRST FBS game for Coastal Carolina and you know the kids, coaches etc. will be geeked and laser-focused. Not to mention CROWD WILL BE ROCKING GUY. Joking aside – it is a strong motivational angle – but the truth of the matter is we do not know what to expect from the Chanticleers in their first game and do not want to pretend that we do. Need to see some action first.
Quick Take: No play. Best idea probably small potatoes on UMass TT over when it becomes more widely available.
Oklahoma -42.5 UTEP (62.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma -38
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma 52.5 UTEP 10
Ok. Blowout city. The question is – can the wacky Miners stick within the number ? We definitely lean that way given that the Sooners will be without a pair of 1,000-yard RBs and the top WR from last season’s team. Seems to be a tall order to just ask them to roll their helmets out there and win by 40+. They also have a DATE WITH DESTINY next week when they visit THE Ohio St Buckeyes. It’s hard to imagine them going full tilt for 60 minutes. UTEP is going to have trouble scoring there is just no way to sugar coat that scenario. They have a nice OL but not sure where the rushing or receiving production will come from. The defense is sketchy but good enough to avoid getting destroyed. UTEP has conference foe Rice on deck. They just want the $$ and a quick ticket out of town.
Quick Take: Lean to UTEP +42 for small potatoes.
USC -26.5 W Michigan (57.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – USC 24
Vegas Implied Score – USC 42 W Michigan 15.5
It’s the moment we have all been waiting for…..the Trojans take the field. Can they POSSIBLY live up to the hype ? It will be fun to find out. The offense will be loaded with Heisman-caliber QB Sam Darnold and RB Ronald Jones leading the way. The OL and WR groups will be introducing new bodies into the starting mix but you know the talent level is there. The defense only allowed 367 yards per contest in 2016 (#3 PAC 12) and the Broncos are going to have a hard time getting much going on offense. The Broncos starting QB has yet to throw a pass in his career and Jon Wassink is going to have to make his first tosses on the road against USC. Without star WR Corey Davis. Uh oh. They DO have a really fine 1-2 punch at RB but can they get it going against the Trojans’ front seven ? USC has a big game with Stanford on deck.
Quick Take: Just have to avoid this one. Best play for small potatoes is probably the Broncos TT under.
Michigan -5 Florida (43)………..MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan 24 Florida 19
Sorry peeps. This will be the most abbreviated quick take. YES our ratings call this game a pick em but with seemingly 1/2 of the Gators’ team suspended it really puts a damper on the ability for us to predict a level of performance on offense and defense. We just cannot back the Gators at this point. Michigan ? Well almost the entire defensive starting unit is new. Big time uncertainty on their side as well. Our gut feel is that BOTH teams end up having really good seasons but not about to guess how this particular game will play out.
Quick Take: No play. Run, Forrest. Run ! Run away.
Northwestern -24 Nevada (60)………..MEGALOCKS line – Northwestern -24
Vegas Implied Score – Northwestern 42 Nevada 18
We are really high on the Wildcats this season. They are rock solid at QB and RB. The defense will be tough. They are not the most explosive team around but they are going to be in every game. We think they can put up points against the easier teams on their schedule and Nevada is certainly one of those. The Wolfpack head on the road with a new HC and without last season’s best offensive player RB James Butler. The defense was actually pretty decent last season and bring back nine starters to the mix. Nevada plans to institute an “air raid” concept on offense which is quite the departure from recent history.
Quick Take: No play. The game looks pretty well lined to us. Nevada could be absolutely rotten. Need to see a game or two.
Nebraska -14.5 Arkansas St (46.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Nebraska -14
Vegas Implied Score – Nebraska 30.5 Arkansas St 16
Here we go. Nebraska starts off with an “easy” one as they face the wacky Arkansas St Red Wolves. Hold the phones, yo. Nebraska has a ton of question marks as they will be without last season’s QB, #1 RB, #1 WR and their top (?) defensive player in CB Chris Jones. In fact – MEGALOCKS FUTURES AND PROP BET INSIDERS will tell you that the staff put a little extra SWEET CAKE on the Huskers under 7 wins prop bet. Seven is a push. Eight. haaaaaaaaaaaaaa. Falls off chair. Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa. Almost chokes to death. The search party is still out for any starter that could make the 6-deep on Ohio St. This feels like a reload season. They will be back tho.
But we digress.
Arkansas St is no prize but we always find ourselves strangely attracted to betting on them. Who can forget the 890 star MEGALOCKS LOSER in last season’s opener ? We do like the QB and feel good about the running game. It just feels wrong asking them to step on the road at Nebraska with only 10 returning starters.
Quick Take: Would have loved to get 17+ with Arkansas St. Now we are going to have to take a pass. Very interested in watching new Nebraska QB Tanner Lee. We recommend no wagers of any kind on this bad boy.
Louisville -24.5 Purdue (68.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Louisville -23
Vegas Implied Score – Louisville 46.5 Purdue 22
C-A-R-D-S. CARDS. They are going to be in a mean mood after losing their final three games last season, and don’t forget, they started the 2016 campaign by scoring 70,62,63 and 59 points. The offense should still be crazy good even with some new faces at RB and WR. Having the amazing Heisman winner Lamar Jackson at the controls never hurts. And the D should be solid. We are high on Purdue to make improvements this season just not sure this is the game to do it. They allowed 38 (!) points per contest last year but hopefully the 8 returning starters can lead the way for some improvement. New Purdue HC Jeff Brohm has some Louisville pedigree. Maybe Petrino will show some mercy ? Hmm. Not sure about that.
Quick Take: No play. Game looks pretty well lined to us. Tempted to take a shot with Purdue but the Cards D is pretty good in it’s own right. Will make it tough on the Boilers to even sneak in a BACK DOOR cover.
Navy 9.5 Florida Atlantic (68)………..MEGALOCKS line – Navy -10
Vegas Implied Score – Navy 38.75 FAU 29.25
Game one for the FIGHTING KIFFINS ! We honestly hope he does good things for the program and sticks around longer than a couple of months. They Owls return 17 starters and have a very experienced team overall. The problems – and biggie size ones. QB ? Who ? And the defense was EL STINKOLA last season allowing 40 points and over 500 yards per game. They were pulverized by good running teams. Oh boy. Navy coming to town. Their D should be better this season and should be able to keep the Owls mostly in check. Hard to imagine the FAU slowing down the triple option.
Quick Take: No official play. Navy TT over seems like a decent small potatoes selection if you are in a desperate mood for action.
Boston College 3.5 N Illinois (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Boston College -3
Vegas Implied Score – Boston College 27.5 Northern Illinois 24
Boston College is most likely going to stick with what they do best in week one – and that is pound the living you know what out of the defense with the running game – and hit hard on defense. It’s still a tossup at starting QB as we go to press but the Eagles will have a fine running game with a very good OL and seemingly 8th year senior Jon Hilliman leading the RB group. The receiving group is experienced and they do boast a fine receiving TE in Tommy Sweeney. It seems almost a certainty these guys will get into the 20s. The defense looks really good to us at first glance.
The Northern Illinois offense appears to be a work in progress as we go to press. Ryan Graham will probably get the start at QB. Jordan Huff is a good RB to start with but the WR corps could be underwhelming. The OL will be fine and keep in mind they only allowed 8 (!) sacks all season in 2016. The defense was disappointing last season but has a lot of experience, some size on the DL and a good looking secondary.
Quick Take: Cannot pick a side in this one. Definite leanage to the under for small potatoes. We will note, however, that the total has steadily increased. We may be unaware of something heinous that makes the over a LOCK.
Marshall 2.5 Miami (45.5)……..MEGALOCKS line – Miami -1
Vegas Implied Score – Marshall 24 Miami 21.5
This is a sneaky under-the-radar match-up. Miami did the unthinkable last season and finished the regular season on a 6-0 run after starting 0-6. They lost a close one to Miss St in their bowl game and look to make a big statement in the MAC this season. They are very experienced and well coached. Strong at QB and on defense.
Marshall struggled to a 3-9 record last year but we feel they will be a lot better this season and will be back to a bowl game. They are set at QB just not sure about the RB and WR units. The defense allowed 35 (!) points per game last year but they return 7 starters to the mix and add in some talented transfers.
Miami HC Chuck Martin is 64% ATS in three seasons with the Redhawks.
Quick Take: No official play. Would take the Miami ML at any number +110 or better for small potatoes.
North Carolina -12.5 California (56.5)……..MEGALOCKS line – North Carolina -14
Vegas Implied Score – North Carolina 34.5 California 22
There is just too much uncertainty for us to get on board with this game. The Tar Heels are essentially undergoing a complete reload on offense. The defense has been sneaky good the past two seasons but they have a new DC in 2017. Meanwhile Cal, when they are not trying to avoid rioting and protesting students, are in year one of the Justin Wilcox era (former DC Wisconsin) and looking to reinvent themselves. Something called Ross Bowers is at QB and they yielded 42.6 (!!) points per game last season.
Quick Take: No official play. Lean to UNC at any number 13.5 or less for small potatoes.
Ole Miss -24 South Alabama (59)……..MEGALOCKS line – Ole Miss -21
Vegas Implied Score – Ole Miss 41.5 South Alabama 17.5
It will be a big time challenge to avoid making hooker jokes when discussing this game. Ole Miss moves on from the Hugh Freeze era and bring a lot of new faces to the table in 2017. QB Shea Patterson looks like a keeper but there are question marks at RB and WR. The defense gave up 34 points per game last season. South Alabama will start an inexperienced QB (Cole Garvin) and will almost certainly struggle to move the ball on Ole Miss. It feels like the spread is about right. Oh. Don’t forget that South Alabama SHOCKED THE WORLD last season at Mississippi St in week one.
Quick Take: No play. Best option for small potatoes action just might be the under.