Bowling Green at Michigan St – College Football Predictions
The Game
Here we go. Michigan St gets a winnable game to start the 2017 season. MEGALOCKS BIG 10 INSIDERS tell us that the Spartans are very anxious to get the bad taste of the 2016 season (3-9) out of their mouths. But just hang on. Bowling Green is also coming off a disappointing 4-8 campaign after making four consecutive bowl games. HC Mike Jinks is in the second year of the rebuilding task and may just get these guys competitive a lot quicker than we think.
The Details
MICHIGAN ST 17.5 BOWLING GREEN (56.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Michigan St -14
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Michigan St 37 Bowling Green 19.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Michigan St 35 Bowling Green 21
The Match-Up
Michigan St offense vs Bowling Green defense
It should be simple enough. Amirite ? Pound the running game against the soft underbelly of the Bowling Green defense and win by 2-3 TDs. They certainly have the running game to do it with near-1,000 yard RB LJ Scott back for duty this year. We are concerned, however, with an offensive line that only returns two starters (excellent C Brian Allen notwithstanding) and a complete ???? at QB. Apparently sophomore Brian Lewerke will get the nod in week one and he has thrown just over 50 passes in his career. Now of course they are going up against a Bowling Green defense that allowed 38 (!) points and 191 rushing yards per game last season and that has to help. Bottom line ? The quality of the Michigan St attack is a bit of an unknown but they should be able to impose their will against a relatively small front seven.
Bowling Green offense vs Michigan St defense
The Falcons should be able to do some damage in this game. QB James Morgan had a mediocre 17-15 TD to INT ratio last season but don’t forget that he was only a freshman. The passing game is almost certainly going to be productive. We also remember Bowling Green RUSHING for 420 (!) and 346 yards in their final two games last season. True, it was MACTION, but it is not like the Spartans defense is a brick wall. So that is the question – can Michigan St dominate up front and disrupt the Bowling Green offense significantly enough to blow them out ? Hmm. The Spartans only bagged 11 (?) sacks last year and are going to need to find a way to get some PENETRATION.
MEGA MINUTIA
Bowling Green struggled last season but did win their final three games AND played some good MAC teams tough (Ohio – lost by 6, Toledo – lost by 7). Michigan St is just 4-8 L12 ATS as home chalk.
Summary
Argh. We did not think we would be tempted by Bowling Green. We are somewhat repulsed, yet strangely intrigued. The tough part of predicting the outcome is knowing how effective QB Brian Lewerke will be with an unproven WR corps. We do know their running game is going to work really well. That should open up some big plays. Bowling Green can hang if their defense can be anything better than “awful”.
Conclusion
Official play: None yet. Stay tuned. Will have the final word no later than Tuesday.
Lean: Strong lean to Falcons at 17.5 or better.