Houston at Arizona – College Football Predictions
The Game
Let’s get it on, yo.
Houston will be playing their first game of the season after having their opener vs UTSA cancelled due to Hurricane Harvey. The Wildcats got off to a nice start with a yuuuuge win over FCS opponent Northern Arizona (62-24). Arizona is coming off their first losing season under HC Rich Rodriguez and look to start things off with a BANG at 2-0. Let’s go !!
The Details
HOUSTON 1 ARIZONA (70)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Houston -4
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Houston 35.5 Arizona 34.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Houston 34 Arizona 31
The Match-Up
Houston offense vs Arizona defense
The Cougars have been explosive on offense in recent years and should continue to pile up the points in 2017. Houston will miss QB Greg Ward but have the benefit of former Texas A&M QB Kyle Allen leading the way. The Cougars bring back their leading rusher (Duke Catalon) and receiver (Linell Bonner) and are going to be a FREAKING HANDFUL for the Wildcats. The OL was a bit of a problem area for them last season but they bring back 5/5 (!) starters on the offensive line.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Arizona will look to do better than the DISASTROUS DISGUSTING DEFENSIVE DEBACLE of 2016 in which they allowed 38 points per game and over 6 yards per play. Things did not get off to a good start in week one as they allowed 562 yards to Northern Arizona. That happened. Houston should get into the 40s unless they turn the ball over with reckless abandon.
Arizona offense vs Houston defense
There is no way to get around it. Arizona is going to run the ball on pretty much anyone. Last week they rushed for a comical 506 (!) yards against Northern Arizona, and overall, they have averaged over 200 yards per game rushing in four of the past five seasons. Brandon Dawkins is a dangerous dual threat QB and needs to be accounted for on every play. He is not the most accurate passer but he can be really effective when the defense needs to commit almost everyone to stopping the run.
The good news for Houston ? They have a really solid defensive line and the LEGEND Phil Steele who will forget more about college football than we will ever know rates them as the #1 D in the AAC. They have registered 75 sacks the past two seasons, but more importantly, have been really stout against the run. Keep your eye on the amazing DL Ed Oliver. Arizona is going to get their points but the Cougars should get enough stops on defense to get separation in this contest.
MEGA-MAZING MORSELS
Houston is 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games……Arizona is 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games…..This is Houston’s first game of the season but also the first regular season game for new HC Major Applewhite…..He was the HC in last season’s bowl loss to San Diego St.
Summary
We feel like Houston wins this game 7/10 times. Will Saturday be one of those instances ? You never know. Just feels like the right play to us. Don’t forget kids – Houston was ranked #6 (!) at one point last season and return 15 starters.
Arizona will probably have to be +2 or better in turnover margin to take this one. Unlikely, but not impossible.
Official play
Houston -1 -106. Do not play higher than -3.