Virginia at Boise St – College Football Predictions
The Game
It’s SMURF TURF time, yo.
The Cavaliers look to bag their 3rd win of the season when they travel to Boise on Friday night. Virginia just might been an emerging JUGGERNAUT (2-1 so far) but it remains to be seen if they can hang with a decent opponent. Meanwhile Boise is just a 3-TD blown lead away from being undefeated and end their non-conference docket with this contest.
The Details
BOISE ST -11.5 VIRGINIA (51.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Boise St -11
Sagarin Ratings – Boise -12.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Boise St 31.5 Virginia 20
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Boise St 28 Virginia 21
The Match-Up
Boise St offense vs Virginia defense
This is not your daddy’s Broncos offense. Boise has been struggling to score points and move the ball so far (#107 offense FBS) and they could not even muster 300Y vs New Mexico last week. It will probably be Montell Cozart at QB (5 TD 1 INT) who is also the teams leading rusher (?). The status of “starter” Brett Rypien is unknown as we go to press. The reality is that the offensive line is the main issue with regards to their struggles on offense. The running game has not been up to par and they have allowed too many sacks and TFL. The Virginia defense looks to be improved this season (#44 FBS) and they should be able to keep the Boise offense from breaking out. They held a pretty good Indiana offense to just 318 yards.
Virginia offense vs Boise St defense
This should be interesting. QB Kurt Benkert is off to a good start (7 TD 1 INT) completing 66% of his passes. It should be noted, however, that the passing game struggled to get things going vs a decent Indiana defense and Boise looks to have a really good stop unit once again (#39). It will be a stern test for the Boise secondary as the Hoos have three players with 200+ yards receiving. The Broncos have been doing a good job getting PENETRATION and will need to keep bringing the heat on Friday night. Overall we worry about Virginia’s ability to run the football vs Boise but the good news is that they don’t need to score a ton of points to win this game.
MEGA-MAZING BITS
Boise is just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games…..CROWD WILL BE ROCKING GUY loses again…..Don’t forget that HC Bronco Mendenhall is very familiar with the trip to Boise after his time at BYU.
Summary
On the surface it appears to be a lot of points for Boise to be laying on Friday night. Our ratings came up with a similar number to Vegas but we are not sure if we have Boise too high and/or the Hoos too low. Points may be at a premium.
Conclusion
No official play yet. Still looking at it. Strong lean under 51.5 but would not go lower than 50 if it starts steaming in a downward fashion. Minor leanage to the Virginia TT under especially if you can get 20 or better.