Week 5 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for detailed analysis this week. These are games we quickly eliminated for play but we want to give you our thoughts and provide content to read. It does NOT mean we are spending a ton of time on these match-ups.
Let’s go !!
Nebraska -7 Illinois (49)………..MEGALOCKS line – Corn -5
Vegas Implied Score – Nebraska 28 Illinois 21
Hey, now. We have some Friday night Big 10 action this week as the Cornhuskers visit Illinois. Nebraska has slithered through their tune-up games with a record of 2-2 and have a chance to make some noise if they can get on a roll. Looking at the schedule it appears that this is a “must-win” with Wisconsin and Ohio St on deck. And they end the season with Penn St and Iowa. Illinois is 2-1 and fresh off a bye. They can boast a win over a decent (but struggling) WKU squad.
The entire Nebraska roster is on the injury report listed as questionable as we go to press. Can’t fix douchebag. We will presume a full roster and no mind-blowing injury issues. Corn has not been impressive BUT keep in mind they have only allowed 213 and 194 (!) yards offense the past two contests. Illinois is similarly crappy on offense and Corn should be able to shut them down for the most part. Of course, your boy Tanner Lee needs to stop throwing interceptions on every 2nd possession. Illinois has been sloppy (#118 penalty yards) and poor on third down defense (51%) AND have Lovie Smith as head coach.
Quick Take: We see some perceived value grabbing the Illini but they are not trustworthy yet for a full play. Gun to the head best play Nebraska TT under for small potatoes.
Texas -6.5 Iowa St (63.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Texas -7
Vegas Implied Score – Texas 35 Iowa St 28.5
This is an interesting way to kick off the week as we will be treated to some SWEET BIG 12 MID-WEEK ACTION. The Cyclones are sitting at 2-1 and get full marks for their 44-41 OT loss to Iowa. That was one of the more entertaining games we watched all season. QB Jacob Park has been really good so far (8-2 TD to INT ratio) and RB David Montgomery is quickly turning into a MEGALOCKS FAV with his never-quit running style. We DO however worry about the defense, and more specifically, a secondary that made Iowa QB Nathan Stanley look like Dan Marino. Texas QB Shane Buechele appears to be ready to go this week and the Longhorns have a talented WR corps. Texas is a tough read right now. Lose to Maryland – sky is falling. Almost beat USC – now the best team ever. Now off a bye ? With a banged-up OL.
Quick Take: We still think Texas is a TD better in this one – BUT as noted above – we will be using caution due to their volatile performance so far. Iowa St is 8-1 ATS L9 home games. No play for now.
South Florida -24 East Carolina (74)………..MEGALOCKS line – South Florida -21
Vegas Implied Score – South Florida 49 East Carolina 25
South Florida continues with their MURDERERS ROW of opponents when they take on East Carolina on Saturday. The Bulls are 4-0 but have recorded wins over San Jose St, Stony Brook, Illinois and Temple. You can only beat who you play BUT it is hard to say how good they are at this point. East Carolina put up 596 yards in week 4 and their offense just might be good enough to hang within the number. The problem ? Their defense is PUTRID. Amaze your friends with this gem. East Carolina allowed 596 yards last week (596-596) and that was a SEASON LOW for them (614,614,675). They also allowed 120 points in a two game span earlier in the season. Still feels like too many points. Ugh.
Quick Take: Gun to the head selection – East Carolina +24 for small potatoes. Awaiting the total.
Kansas St -16 Baylor (59)………..MEGALOCKS line – Kansas St -14
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas St 37.5 Baylor 21.5
Dedicated MEGALOCKS STEAM BATH LOCK CLUB members are still smarting after our horrible call on Kansas St vs Vanderbilt. A team that lost 178-0 last week. We still like the Wildcats but ALSO still think the point spreads are a bit high (see Sooners game last week) when Baylor is the underdog. QB Zach Smith is an upgrade over Anu Solomon and should be able to generate some offense even with one of their top two WR (Chris Platt) likely to miss the game. The worry ? Our power ratings say there is some value with Baylor BUT we have Kansas St as one of the BIGGEST home field advantages in college football. But they are so boring, MEGA ? K. But offense, defense and special teams just seems to work at home.
Quick Take: Kansas St team total over for small potatoes.
Ohio St -29.5 Rutgers (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -31
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 40 Rutgers 10.5
No need to get into too much depth. Ohio St is still a legit threat to run the table and get into the playoff. They have beat Rutgers 58-0 and 49-7 (!) the past two seasons and we see no reason why this game will be any different. Yes, Rutgers has improved from the completely disgusting mess that they were last season, but Ohio St should be able to name the score. Rutgers has scored 14,13,17 vs FBS competition this season.
Quick Take: No official play. Strong lean to Ohio St -29.5. Lean to Ohio St TT over.
Army -24 UTEP (52)………..MEGALOCKS line – Army -21
Vegas Implied Score – Army 38 UTEP 14
Another game that seems like a simple decision. Army will almost certainly win by between 17-40 points. Do you feel lucky ?? UTEP is flat out rotten and have to make a long road trip to get their knees smashed to pieces by chop blocks. Recent history ? Last season Army went on the road and clobbered the Miners 66-14. The one worry we have is the almost comical inability of Army to complete a pass. Even by their standards it is baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad.
Quick Take: Technically some “value” in the line but we still say Army or nothing for small potatoes. Better choice is to run away from this game.
Minnesota -12.5 Maryland (45.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Minnesota -11
Vegas Implied Score – Minnesota 29 Maryland 16.5
This game got on our radar pretty early given the QB INJURY DISASTER that the Terrapins are facing YET AGAIN. It appears as though they are down to the 4th (or 3rd ?) string QB in Max Bortenschlager. What does that mean ? Well the Maryland offense was really rolling with the mobile emerging JUGGERNAUT Kasim Hill and a great set of weapons but NOW have lost that ability to run the offense that was working so well (114 points first two weeks; win over Texas). Minnesota has the #1 (!!) scoring defense in the FBS and are going to be licking their chops this Saturday. The will, however, have to deal with 3 or 4 REALLY dangerous playmakers on the Maryland offense that can score from anywhere on the field. The Gopher offense will have 1-2 RB punch healthy (R Smith, S Brooks) and ready to go BUT we also need to wonder about their QB situation. Conor Rhoda is ok but the depth behind him is beyond sketchy.
Quick Take: No official play. Strong lean to Minnesota at -12.5/-13.
ROLL TIDE -28 Ole Miss (59)………..MEGALOCKS line – ROLL TIDE 28
Vegas Implied Score – Alabama 43.5 Ole Miss 15.5
ROLLLLLLLL TIDE. Hard to get in front of this bus at any time, but particularly, how about after a 59-0 pasting of a decent Vanderbilt team ? The rushing game is absolutely destroying everything in their path and QB Jalen Hurts just wins baby. And he is playing really well. Ole Miss QB Shea Patterson is a good one and will probably create some plays but it is hard to see Ole Miss cracking 14 points. Meanwhile ROLL TIDE should be able to name their score and move up and down the field at will even with back-ups in the game. This will be a good chance for ROLL TIDE to punish Ole Miss for giving them all kinds of problems lately (two wins for Ole miss last three seasons; Bama won the other game by 5 points).
Quick Take: Lean to ROLL TIDE at -28 for small potatoes.
BYU -3 Utah St (46)………..MEGALOCKS line – BYU -6
Vegas Implied Score – BYU 24.5 Utah St 21.5
What to do. What to do ? We had both of these teams rated pretty low entering the season and now get the fantastic TREAT to watch them go head to head on Friday night. Utah St has a pair of blowout wins over PURE FILTH and a couple of blowout losses to pretty good teams (Wisconsin, Wake Forest). What do we really know about these guys ? Well we DO know they hate BYU and would love to punch them in the groin and take the win.
BYU is off to a rough start and are absolutely horrible from a statistical standpoint. #128 in total offense. #82 in total defense. #125 in time of possession. The hits keep coming. It should be noted, however, that BYU has played a really tough schedule (Wisconsin, Utah, LSU) so far and the stats need to be taken with a grain of salt. Questions all around. Want more uncertainty ? BYU starting QB Tanner Mangum is out and something called Beau Hoge gets the nod.
Quick Take: This is a pretty confusing game to get your head around. We recommend forgetting this game is being played and focus on using the results to learn something for future weeks.
Houston -14 Temple (47)………..MEGALOCKS line – Houston -14
Vegas Implied Score – Houston 30.5 Temple 16.5
The Cougars lost a home date with Texas Tech last week and sit at 2-1 on the season. It’s CONFERENCE PLAY now as they start things off with a road trip to Temple. The Owls were brutal last week tallying less than 100 (!) yards offense vs South Florida and throwing 4 INTs during the MASSACRE. We are not sure which of their 7-8 QBs are going to start this one but do not think it will go very well. As crazy as it sounds, however, the Temple season is not over as this marks the end of the toughest part of their schedule and they have already bagged a pair of wins (UMass, Villanova). The point ? We do not think these guys have gone in the tank just yet. And this is just their 2nd conference game.
Quick Take: Strong lean to Houston at -14. We were hoping for -10/-11 to play this game but this is just a bit too expensive for our tastes.
Florida -10 Vanderbilt (42)……….MEGALOCKS line – Florida -10
Vegas Implied Score – Florida 26 Vanderbilt 16
Hurricanes. Injuries. Bank fraud. Letdown spots. You have to respect the GUT CHECK WIN by the Florida Gators last Saturday. Yes – it was a 24752489 STAR MEGALOCKS MAX UNIT BOMB 900 DIMER LOCK (Kentucky +3) – but we give them a ton of credit for the 4th quarter comeback. The new starting QB is Luke Del Rio and we have no idea who else will be suiting up based on suspensions and injuries. What we do know is that we are not fading these guys against a team that just lost 59-CACK (even if it was against ROLL TIDE). You know we love defense. Both teams bring it. Just can’t trust Vandy this week after last weekend’s DEBACLE. We get it if you want to take the points. Probably the smart move. We just cannot recommend it for more than small potatoes.
Quick Take: Slight leanage to Vandy at +10. Wanted to play the under but that 42 is too scary for our liking.
Buffalo -7.5 Kent St (42)……….MEGALOCKS line – Buffalo -9
Vegas Implied Score – Buffalo 24.75 Kent St 17.25
This is another game that was on our hot list but sadly decided to pass upon for SWEET FULL UNIT ACTION. Kent St has been putrid offensively and are down to their 3rd string QB. Want more ? They have scored 3,0 and 3 in their three FBS match-ups. The good news is that two of those games were vs Clemson an LUA-VUH. The other one was against a good Marshall D on the road. The bad news is that YOUR Buffalo Bulls also sport a tough defense. The Bulls look pretty good so far and have a serious shot at making a bowl game. Unfortunately they are also down to their back-up QB. Drew Anderson looked fine last week but you just never know.
Quick Take: Strong lean to Buffalo and the under.
Florida St -7.5 Wake Forest (46.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Florida St -8
Vegas Implied Score – Florida St 26 Wake Forest 18.5
Whoa. 0-2 Florida St takes on 4-0 Wake Forest. Seems like a dream, yo.
The Demon Deacons are off to a great start and HC Dave Clawson is really moving this program in the right direction. They have not really been tested yet BUT 4-0 is 4-0 as my great great great grandpappy used to say. One way or another QB John Wolford has an 8-0 (!!) TD to INT ratio and the Deacs have only given up 46 points in four games. Florida St has had a really tough start dealing with hurricane-related issues (only played two games so far) and an injured starting QB. Oh, and by the way, their two games were against ROLL TIDE and a JUGGERNAUT NC State squad. True freshman QB James Blackman looked pretty good last week to us and the defense is still solid. We are just hesitant to lay over a TD with this team yet.
Quick Take: No play on the side. Small potatoes on the under if you need action on the game.
UCLA -7 Colorado (68)……….MEGALOCKS line – UCLA -6
Vegas Implied Score – UCLA 37.5 Colorado 30.5
Get the calculators out. Or EXCEL. There promises to be plenty of points scored in this one (#HotTake) with the ROSEN ONE at QB for the Bruins complementing a disgusting mess on defense. Colorado has not looked sharp this season and were destroyed (again) by the Huskies last week. The Buffs still have a lot of weapons in the passing game and should be able to get into the 30s without a problem.
Quick Take: Strong lean to the over 68.
Fresno St -9.5 Nevada (59.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Fresno St -10
Vegas Implied Score – Fresno St 34.5 Nevada 25
Spin that wheel………and the new Nevada QB is……..Ty Gangi. Again. He probably gives the Wolfpack their best shot in this one due to experience even though he has completed less than 50% of his passes so far this season. MEGALOCKS NEVADA INSIDERS tell us that the Wolfpack are trying to avoid a complete TIRE FIRE scenario during conference play and see their next two games as very winnable (Hawaii up next). They led Northwestern at the half and only lost to Toledo by 13 so maybe – just maybe – there is hope to hang inside the number. And the D is experienced. Fresno St has not beat an FBS team in well over 600 days (!!) and would love to start conference play with a win. It is hard to get a read on them since they played ROLL TIDE and Washington, but nevertheless, we think they have a serious shot to go bowling in the first year of the Jeff Tedford regime.
Quick Take: Lean to Fresno -9.5 for small potatoes. No take on the total.
Washington -27 Oregon St (59)……….MEGALOCKS line – Washington -24
Vegas Implied Score – Washington 43 Oregon St 16
Washington is the staying under-the-radar (shhhhhhh….) so far with a 4-0 record via beating a collection of stiffs. Chris Petersen is going to have these guys peaking at the right time. Meanwhile the Beavers have been horrible while starting out at 1-3 and underperforming the Vegas line by (-74) in three FBS match-ups. They have some really good players scattered around the roster and we cannot figure how they are so horrible. They have yielded 58,48,52 (!!) in three FBS contests so far. They are off a bye and catching a ton of points.
Quick Take: Seems like a lot of points. Oregon St has been HOT GARBAGE so far but there is “perceived value” in the line. Lean to BEAVERS for small potatoes at +27 or better.
Stanford -17 Arizona St (62)……….MEGALOCKS line – Stanford -13
Vegas Implied Score – Stanford 39.5 Arizona St 22.5
This is a really difficult game to handicap. Stanford has been a big disappointment so far, but being realistic, their goals are still in front of them. Win the PAC 12 North. Win the PAC 12 Title Game. They get the Huskies at home so excellent HC David Shaw will almost certainly have these guys focused on the prize. There is a question mark at starting QB but either K Chryst or KJ Costello should be able to move the offense against a Sun Devil defense that is ranked 2nd last in the PAC 12 in yards per play allowed. Arizona St AB Manny Wilkins has been really efficient so far (8-0 TD to INT ratio), and based upon how the running game is going (#111 FBS) it seems like it will be up to him to keep the Sun Devils in the game.
Quick Take: Lean to Arizona St and the over.