Michigan at Indiana – College Football Predictions
The Game
Michigan lost a tough one to rival Michigan St last week and now face the challenge of shaking that off and heading on the road to take on a sneaky-good Indiana squad. Michigan is still in fine shape if they run the table BUT there is still that little problem of getting past Penn St, Ohio St and Wisconsin. Indiana has lost 21 straight in the series (!) and would love the SHOCK the WORLD this Saturday.
The Details
MICHIGAN -6.5 INDIANA (46.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Michigan -7
Sagarin Ratings – Michigan -8
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Michigan 26.5 Indiana 20
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Michigan 31 Indiana 17
The Match-Up
Michigan offense vs Indiana defense
Oh boy. Michigan is coming off a game in which they committed five turnovers and have to be lacking in confidence. QB John O’Korn has been THRUST into the starting role and has a 1-4 (!) TD to INT ratio so far. It is going to be up to the ground game (3 RB with 200+ rushing yards) to keep the Wolverines in manageable 3rd down situations. The Hoosiers’ defense has been pretty decent and extra spicy on 3rd downs (#24 FBS). We worry about the ability of Michigan to MATRICULATE in the passing game against a defense that has allowed less than 55% completions (but just 1 INT). Overall, we feel like Michigan can have some success and get into the low 20s minimum, particularly since the defense is sure to set them up with some short fields.
Indiana offense vs Michigan defense
The Hoosiers look to have a QB of the future in redshirt freshman Peyton Ramsey who provides dual threat ability. Ramsey has completed 68% of his passes with a fine 6-2 TD to INT ratio but this week gets once of the toughest tests imaginable facing the Michigan defense. Michigan is ranked #1 (!) in the FBS in total defense (#6 run) and yards are going to tough to come by on Saturday. Indiana has also had problems with turnovers particularly FUMBLE-ITIS and are ranked #122 in the FBS in turnover margin. Michigan plays defense with their hair on fire and we can see a couple of balls pooping loose. Indiana has the capability to hit some big plays in the passing game and will have to do that to win this game.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
Indiana has been competitive the past two seasons in this match-up losing by 10 last season and by 7 (2-OT) in 2015…….Michigan has not allowed more than 17 points all season (and in that game they only gave up 3 on defense).
Summary
CROWD WILL BE ROCKING GUY is going to be all over the Hoosiers in this one, and while we can see the merit in backing Indiana, we feel like the line is a bit short. They were 20+ point home dogs to Ohio St in week one and now catching less than a TD vs the Fighting Harbaughs.
Conclusion
Lean to Michigan -6.5 and strong lean to the under 46.5. Would play down to 45.