Michigan at Penn St – College Football Predictions
The Game
Whew.
Michigan kept their Big 10 Championship hopes alive when they slithered out of Indiana with a 27-20 OT victory. They almost assuredly need a sweep of Penn St, Wisconsin and Ohio St to pull it off but all you can do is “take it one game at a time”. Penn St is sitting at 6-0 but have played a pretty weak schedule whilst almost losing to Iowa. Get cho popcone ! It’s a night game in Happy Valley, yo.
The Details
Michigan -9.5 Penn St (43.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Penn St -11
Sagarin Ratings – Penn St -11
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Penn St 26.5 Michigan 17
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Penn St 27 Michigan 21
The Match-Up
Penn St offense vs Michigan defense
Penn St has done a good job on offense but now comes their toughest test. Michigan. The Wolverines still have the #1 (!) ranked defense in the FBS and they are also tops in 3rd down defense (21%). Oh, and they are also #1 in the Big 10 in sacks per game whilst the Nittany Lions are giving up a lot of sacks and TFL (last Big 10). Thankfully Penn St has a star QB AND RB combination to rely upon with Trace McSorley (13-4 TD to INT ratio) and Saquon Barkley (649 yds rushing). The passing game is very difficult to defend with six players having 150+ yards receiving. This seems to us like the classic case of strength vs strength. Penn St is going to have some success but doubt that they can drive up and down the field. We peg them in the mid 20s.
Michigan offense vs Penn St defense
It just keeps looking uglier. The positive spin is that the 1-2-3 combo at RB has 1,000 yards rushing and 8 TDs and even Indiana got em for 177 rushing yards. They will have to stay patient with the run and use their cheesy plays to wide open tight ends as much as possible to keep drives going on 3rd down. We doubt very much that the Wolverines will be able to complete many passes of 10+ yards to their WR corps who are struggling to get separation these days. We peg Michigan at 14-20 points depending on how many short fields and/or non-offensive scores they can come up with on Saturday night.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
If revenge is dish best served cold – Michigan better get ready for something frosty. The Wolverines beat Penn St 49-10 last season in Ann Arbor and probably cost the Nittany Lions a playoff berth.
Summary
The current line looks pretty solid to us. Not much value to be had in there. We do lean to the better team and more balanced team and that is Penn St.
Conclusion
Lean Penn St -9.