Indiana at Michigan St – College Football Predictions
The Game
Sparty just has to keep winning and you never know what might happen. The Spartans escaped a late flurry of Gopher points last week and are now 5-1 at the mid-point of the regular season. Indiana is coming off a heartbreaking OT loss to Michigan and now have to saddle up and get out of town to face a confident Michigan St bunch. These two teams are not far apart in talent and it should be a good one on Saturday afternoon.
The Details
Michigan St -6.5 Indiana (45.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Michigan St -7
Sagarin Ratings – Michigan St -7.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Michigan St 26 Indiana 19.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Michigan St 26 Indiana 21
The Match-Up
Michigan St offense vs Indiana defense
The Michigan St rushing attack is starting to improve at the right time. They rushed for 245 yards last week for the Gophers and even had 158 the week before vs Michigan. Indiana is one of the worst teams in the Big 10 in terms of run defense so the Spartans should be able to establish their identity and make some things happen in the passing game. QB B Lewerke has settled down nicely and only has 3 INT in over 170 attempts. Indiana is very good on 3rd downs (#16 FBS) and will have to find a way to get off the field to prevent the Spartans from controlling the game.
Indiana offense vs Michigan St defense
QB Peyton Ramsey has been an impressive dual threat this season and will need to have an excellent game to give the Hoosiers a shot. Indiana has a fine freshman RB in Morgan Ellison and more than a few talented WRs. They will be able to put pressure on the rock solid Spartans’ defense (#5 FBS, #15 3rd down defense) and are more than capable of hitting some big plays. Indiana is #124 in the FBS in turnover margin and need to win that battle on Saturday to give themselves a shot. Indiana is tied for 2nd last (i.e. bad) in the Big 10 in turnovers. The Hoosiers are scrappy enough to stay in this one but cannot fall behind by double digits early in the game.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
One thing to note when looking at YTD stats is that Indiana has played Ohio St, Penn St AND Michigan. Sparty has only faced Michigan.
Summary
The situation feels like a tough one for Indiana heading on the road after losing a game they really really wanted to win. The good news is that these teams are pretty equal in talent but we think the difference will be the Spartans running game imposing their will.
Conclusion
Lean to Sparty -6.5 for small potatoes.