Week 9 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for detailed analysis this week. These are games we quickly eliminated for play but we want to give you our thoughts and provide content to read. It does NOT mean we are spending a ton of time on these match-ups.
Let’s go !!
Handy index:
- Stanford at Oregon St (Thursday)
- Toledo at Ball St (Thursday)
- South Alabama at Georgia St (Thursday)
- Buffalo at Akron
- Tulane at Memphis (Friday)
- Tulsa at SMU (Friday)
- San Diego St at Hawaii
- Miami at North Carolina
- Rutgers at Michigan
- Wisconsin at Illinois
- Arkansas at Ole Miss
- Air Force at Colorado St
- USC at Arizona St
- California at Colorado
- Boise St at Utah St
- Michigan St at Northwestern
- Old Dominion at North Texas
Stanford -23 Oregon St (59)………..MEGALOCKS line – Stanford -18
Vegas Implied Score – Stanford 41 Oregon St 18
It’s go time, yo.
Stanford looked a bit wobbly early in losses to USC and San Diego St but they appear to have righted the ship. You can’t take much from the beating of an Oregon team without their starting QB but they beat UCLA, Arizona St (emerging JUGGERNAUT) and Utah in consecutive weeks. They have one the best RBs in college football in Bryce Love (1,387 yards !) who is averaging an impossible 10 yards per carry and a passing game that is good enough when the run game is working well. That should be the case vs the Beavers this week as Oregon St is ranked #100 in the FBS in rushing defense and we are not sure where their heads are at after the unexpected departure of their HC. Yes, they played well vs Colorado, but this is Stanford. Good news for Oregon St backers ? Stanford is ranked #9 in the PAC 12 in yards per play defense AND yards per carry allowed (5.03). RB Ryan Nall (a MEGALOCKS favorite) can do some damage.
Quick Take: We cannot recommend a play on Oregon St even though we see perceived value in the line. If you like Stanford we suggest playing them ATS and if you like the Beavers go with the TT over. Gun to the head selection is Oregon St TT over for small potatoes.
Toledo -26 Ball St (60.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Toledo -23
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo 43.25 Ball St 17.25
The stench you smelled this morning when walking the dog just might have been the remnants of the latest performance of the Ball St football team. They have lost their last three games (all MACtion) by a combined score of 142-15. Injuries notwithstanding their level of play has been brutal and now they get to face the powerhouse Toledo Rockets. Uh, oh. Toledo QB Logan Woodside continues to play fantastic football (16-2 TD to INT) and the running game has a great THREE-headed monster that has combined for 1,400 yards and 12 rushing TDs in 2017. Is there any hope for a Ball St cover ? Well, RB Caleb Huntley is emerging in the absence of James Gilbert and the Rockets have the YUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE game with N Illinois next week.
Quick Take: Cannot back Ball St in this spot. Line seems pretty rich. Recommend a full pass for now. Gun to the head selection is the under for small potatoes if you just have to get down on the game.
South Alabama -2 Georgia St (49)………..MEGALOCKS line – South Alabama -3
Vegas Implied Score – South Alabama 25.5 Georgia St 23.5
Oh, those wacky Jaguars. South Alabama started out the season with tough games against Ole Miss, Oklahoma St and La Tech but seem to be ready for Sun Belt play. They upset Troy and handled an explosive ULM team last week but they need to run the table to have any shot at the Sun Belt crown (or share thereof). They showed some nice balance last week with 232 yards rushing and 317 passing vs ULM but face a decent Panthers defense this week. Don’t laugh but Georgia St has been playing decent football the past month ( but last week got smoked by Troy) and would love to reach bowl eligibility. They have three wins bagged and have a favorable schedule going forward. There is potential on this roster but the results have been a bit erratic. The good news is that South Alabama is very capable of laying an egg. Tough call, this game.
Quick Take: Lean to South Alabama up to -3 for small potatoes. They have proven class (horse racing term) with a win over Troy.
Akron -3 Buffalo (48.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Akron -3
Vegas Implied Score – Akron 25.75 Buffalo 22.75
This is a tough handicap. Buffalo has TWO legitimate starting QBs (different styles) but both are listed on the injury report as questionable. The 3rd stringer is not chopped cabbage BUT we can’t recommend a play on this game without having a bit more certainty. Buffalo has 3 MAC losses so far including a 7-OT (!) game vs W Michigan and are now focused on gaining bowl eligibility. They need to bag three more wins to get to 6. Akron is tied atop the relatively smelly MAC East with Ohio and are coming off a 48-21 beatdown at the hands of Toledo. They did beat W Michigan but were outgained in that contest 426-215.
Quick Take: Tough call. Recommend a full pass, yo.
Memphis -11 Tulane (66)………..MEGALOCKS line – Memphis -10
Vegas Implied Score – Memphis 33.5 Tulane 22.5
Yes, guy.
Memphis came through in the second half last week with 42 (!) points for a 900 STAR MEGALOCKS TOUT SCUMBAG GOLDEN PREMIUM winner AND a loser for YOU SUCK GAME IS OVER GUY. The Tigers are explosive but have a suspect defense so will almost always be an “interesting” team to cheer for when backing against the number. QB Riley Ferguson has a LASER ROCKET CANNON arm and is well on his way to exceeding last year’s TD pass total of 32 (has 20 already). The running game is underrated and Tulane is going to have their hands full holding Memphis under 40 points. Tulane is capable of hanging around as they are well coached and able to score points (62 vs Tulsa, 28 vs USF). The Tigers have allowed 27+ in every game so far.
Memphis is tied for first in the C-USA West and have wins over Navy and Houston in their back-pocket. Tulane only has one conference loss but realistically just want to get to the postseason. They need three wins in their final five games.
Quick Take: Lean Memphis team total over up to 34.5 for small potatoes.
SMU -10 Tulsa (75)………..MEGALOCKS line – SMU -8
Vegas Implied Score – SMU 42.5 Tulsa 32.5
The Mustangs are an emerging JUGGERNAUT and just one win away from connecting $$$ for MEGALOCKS FUTURES CLUB on the season win total. HC Chad Morris brought his winning Clemson pedigree to town and has SMU tied for first atop the C-USA West. They need to keep on winning because they still have UCF and Navy on the docket whereas Memphis has already faced those teams. Tulsa’s defense was previously classified as PURE FILTH by our Stats Department but have given up just 37 (!) points in their past two games (Houston, powerful UConn passing game). The Golden Hurricane just might have a puncher’s shot in this one as they have proven class this season (lost to Toledo by 3; to Navy by 10; destroyed Houston in 2nd half).
Quick Take: Lean Tulsa +10 for small potatoes.
San Diego St -9.5 Hawaii (55.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – San Diego St -8
Vegas Implied Score – San Diego St 32.5 Hawaii 23
This game is a puzzler.
San Diego St is without a doubt the better team. By a large margin. The problem ? The season goals are now DOWN THE TOILET and now they travel out to a Hawaii to face a hungry team off a bye looking for a bowl bid. The Aztecs only managed to score 17 (!) points in their last two games combined, and whilst the Hawaii defense is PURE FILTH, it is not exactly easy to trust the #96 ranked offense in the FBS to win by double digits. Hawaii has scored 21+ in every game this season.
Quick Take: Lean to Hawaii +9.5. Strong lean if it hits +10. <grabs barf bag>
Miami -20 North Carolina (51) ……….MEGALOCKS line – Miami -17
Vegas Implied Score – Miami 35.5 North Carolina 15.5
The world is a happy place.
YOUR Miami Hurricanes are an UNDEFEATED JABBAWOCKEE looking to keep rolling as they travel to North Carolina to face the Tar Heels. Miami is solid on offense with QB Malik Rosier (14-3 TD to INT ratio; 214 attempts) MATRICULATING in the passing game and Travis Homer filling in for Mark Walton at RB. The WR group is underrated, and when you include the mobility of Rosier, this is a very difficult team to defend. The Tar Heels are a grease fire with a lost season staring them in the face, but to be fair, they have had a ridiculous number of injuries and are breaking in a new QB. At least most of the time. The Hurricanes have been decent on defense but definitely have a bit of a soft underbelly vs the run. Thankfully they face North Carolina this week but they better get ready for tough tests vs Virginia Tech and Notre Dame.
Quick Take: North Carolina is unplayable. Gun to the head selection is the Miami team total over any number less than 37 for small potatoes.
Michigan -24 Rutgers (44) ……….MEGALOCKS line – Michigan -21
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan 34 Rutgers 10
This is an interesting situational match-up. The fundamentals are a given. Michigan is obviously the much better team. But are they 24 points better after getting their teeth kicked in by Penn St AND having their season goals go bye bye ? And don’t forget that Michigan beat Rutgers 78-0 last season. Complete D-BAG move by Harbaugh and we have to believe that the Scarlet Knights will be playing with a bit of a chip on their shoulder. AND they are a lot better this season. Still a way to go and the road to respectability but they are at the very least “scrappy”.
Quick Take: Rutgers is going to have trouble scoring in this one and the defense is playing better. Lean to the under 44 for small potatoes.
Wisconsin -26 Illinois (49) ……….MEGALOCKS line – Wisconsin -24
Vegas Implied Score – Wisconsin 37.5 Illinois 11.5
The Badgers keep rolling along and appear to be on a DATE WITH DESTINY and the Big 10 Championship game. There is still some football to be played, that is for sure, but the good news is that they get a young and struggling Illinois team this Saturday. Jonathan Taylor appears to be emerging into the latest star RB at Wisconsin and the defense has been lights out (#6 FBS; #5 run defense). The Badgers are also deadly on 3rd downs (#2 offense / #24 defense) whilst the Illini allow 48% conversions on 3rd downs. Illinois has lost five straight but did have a decent showing last week vs the Gophers.
Quick Take: Gun to the head play would be Illinois first half as they may hang around for a while and the Badgers have started slowly in most games before the bruising running game takes hold. Small potatoes only.
Ole Miss -3.5 Arkansas (64.5) ……….MEGALOCKS line – Ole Miss -3
Vegas Implied Score – Ole Miss 34 Arkansas 30.5
Whoa. This one makes your head spin. Ole Miss is without their excellent starting QB Shea Patterson but DO have an interesting backup in Jordan Ta’amu who provides a different look and he got some game action last week. The Ole Miss defense is PUTRID but the Hogs are without starting center Frank Ragnow and RB Chase Hayden. The WR corps is also decimated and who knows who starts at QB. Arkansas has an 0-4 SEC record so far whilst being outscored 191-94. They only have wins over New Mexico St and something called Florida A&M. Hard to see Arkansas play their best after getting pounded by Alabama and Auburn in back-to-back weeks.
Quick Take: This feels like a great spot for Ole Miss to get to .500. We can’t trust their defense but still like them this week. Strong lean to Ole Miss -3.5 would play up to -4. Small to medium potatoes.
Colorado St -10.5 Air Force (68.5) ……….MEGALOCKS line – Colorado St -10
Vegas Implied Score – Colorado St 39.5 Air Force 29
Colorado continues their run at the division title when they face Air Force on Saturday. Colorado St had a disappointing effort last week vs New Mexico in a 900 STAR MEGALOCKS TOUT SCUMBAG LOSER but should be able to rack up some serious offensive stats against one of the worst defenses in college football. Air Force is #11 in the Mountain West in yards per play defense and LAST in yards per carry rush defense at a mind-boggling 6.3 (!). Colorado St should be able to rock and roll in the running game and destroy the Falcons in the passing game. The question becomes – can they can enough separation to cover double digits ? Air Force can score AND Colorado St allowed 318 yards rushing last week to New Mexico. Now they get Air Force who averages 341 (!) rushing yards per game (#5 FBS).
Quick Take: Get ‘cho calculators, yo. Lean to the over 68.5 for small potatoes.
USC -3 Arizona St (58) ……….MEGALOCKS line – USC -1
Vegas Implied Score – USC 30.5 Arizona St 27.5
This just might be the toughest game on the card. USC is coming off a beatdown at the hands of Notre Dame, but being realistic, they have lost to a decent Washington St team on the road (by 3 points) and to an excellent Irish team. AND they can still win the PAC 12. The problem ? They are really banged up AND QB Sam Darnold is not playing consistently enough to make us too excited to back them in this spot. Meanwhile, over in Tempe, Arizona St has found a DEFENSE allowing just 17 points in their last two games combined vs Washington and Utah. They also have a legit shot at winning the PAC 12 but need to beat USC this Saturday. The teams have split the past six meetings.
Quick Take: We can see both sides of this one. USC backers can say there is “value” now based on previous expectations. Arizona St backers can honestly believe they are the better team. We lean with the facts (?) and lean to Arizona St +3 for small potatoes.
Colorado -3 California (52) ……….MEGALOCKS line – Colorado -1
Vegas Implied Score – Colorado 27.5 California 24.5
It’s a battle of a pair of 4-4 teams as Cal travels to face the Buffs on Saturday. Both teams are battling for bowl eligibility and would love to win this one to relieve some of the pressure. Cal has only one win in their past five games but are playing decent football most recently destroying Washington St and losing to Arizona in 2-OT. They have allowed 30,45,38 and 45 in those four losses. Colorado used three QBs last week and this has the feeling of a team in a downward spiral. They have allowed 37,27,45,33 and 28 in their past five contests and we have very little feel for this squad right now.
Quick Take: Gun to the head selection would be to take Cal and the points for small potatoes.
Boise St -8 Utah St (51.5) ……….MEGALOCKS line – Boise St -10
Vegas Implied Score – Boise St 29.75 Utah St 21.75
Don’t look now but the Broncos are in fine shape to make the Mountain West Title game for the first time since 2015 DESPITE struggling mightily on offense for most of the season. The defense has been lights out the past three weeks allowed just 7,14 and 14 points. Utah St is on life support to win the division based on their loss to Colorado St BUT they can still exceed expectations (in our opinion) by making a bowl game. Right now they are 4-4 and need to bag a couple more wins. A win over the Broncos would not only be SWEET but would almost guarantee a postseason appearance according to our Mountain West Bowl Projection INSIDERS. We originally had a strong lean to the Broncos BUT understand that the Utah St offense has been given new life with redshirt freshman Jordan Love who had a yuuuuge game vs UNLV. Yes, it was UNLV, but he is definitely an upgrade over 12-year senior Kent Myers and provides more of a challenge for Boise. The last time Boise came to town they turned the ball over 8 (!!) en route to a 52-26 SPANKING.
Quick Take: Lean to the under 51.5 for small potatoes.
Michigan St -2.5 Northwestern (40.5) ……….MEGALOCKS line – Michigan St -3
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan St 21.5 Northwestern 19
Run silent, run deep.
Michigan St is tied for FIRST in the Big 10 East with a 4-0 conference record and already have a win over Michigan in the bag. The next three weeks are yuuuuge as they deal with Northwestern (sneaky tough team), Penn St (!) and Ohio St (!). The defense has been playing really well but the offense is still sputtering. They barely escaped Indiana at home last week and are going to have to step their game up in a hurry. Northwestern won a SNOT BUBBLER over Iowa last week and are just one of those annoying teams that wins AND loses when you least expect it. QB Clayton Thorson has struggled this season and has not been helped at all by the mediocre collection of targets. Michigan St is the better overall team but we are not sure by how much. And the NW run D has not been giving up anything lately and is going to be a tough match-up for Sparty. Michigan St is gonna have to do some damage in the passing game to win this one. SNOT BUBBLER ALERT.
Quick Take: Under 40.5 lean for small to medium potatoes.
North Texas -11 Old Dominion (61) ……….MEGALOCKS line – North Texas -11
Vegas Implied Score – North Texas 36 Old Dominion 25
The Mean Green are still on top of the C-USA West standings (tied with S Miss) and in control of their own destiny with their win over Southern Miss earlier in the season (a 77,000 DIMER MEGALOCKS TOUT SCUMBAG LOSER). The offense is humming and QB Mason Fine is producing at a high level. The bad news ? The defense is PURE FILTH and have allowed 43,54 and 69 on separate occasions already this season. The good news is that they face Old Dominion this week who is really struggling (2-5; outscored 243-133) but showed life last week losing a close one to WKU.
Quick Take: Not a game we are going to get involved in. North Texas should smash them but it is always risky backing a team at double digits with a defense this horrible. Gun to the head selection would be the North Texas TT over.