Week 10 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for detailed analysis this week. These are games we quickly eliminated for play but we want to give you our thoughts and provide content to read. It does NOT mean we are spending a ton of time on these match-ups.
Let’s go !!
Handy index:
- Bowling Green at Kent St (Tuesday)
- Miami Ohio at Ohio (Tuesday)
- Wisconsin at Indiana
- Illinois at Purdue
- Maryland vs Rutgers
- Minnesota at Michigan
- Northwestern at Nebraska
- Ohio St at Iowa
- UCLA at Utah (Friday)
- Ball St at Eastern Michigan (Thursday)
- Central Michigan at Western Michigan (Wednesday)
- Baylor at Kansas
- Florida at Missouri
- Kansas St at Texas Tech
- Auburn at Texas A&M
- UMass at Mississippi St
- Idaho at Troy (Thursday)
- Northern Illinois at Toledo (Thursday)
- Memphis at Tulsa (Thursday)
- Navy at Temple (Thursday)
- Colorado at Arizona St
- South Carolina at Georgia
Bowling Green -2 Kent St (51)………..MEGALOCKS line – Bowling Green -3
Vegas Implied Score – Bowling Green 26.5 Kent 24.5
Yes, guy.
Tuesday night MACtion is back and we KNOW all of you are as excited as we are. Horrible calls. Bad beats. Godzilla appearing out of the shadows to block a punt. The magic is PALPABLE. Even when you have two teams that are horrible you have to watch. Bowling Green has only won one game this season and that was on a quasi-miracle vs Miami Ohio. The past two games have seen them allow 48 points on each occasion. The QB situation is “in flux” with three guys apparently “ready to go”. Freshman Jarret Doege has been the best of the bunch in limited action and should get the start. The defense is awful. Case closed. Meanwhile Kent St is down to their 3rd (6th ?) string QB and are just a HOT MESS on offense. The good news ? The defense has been playing really well outside of blowout losses to Clemson, LUA-VUH and Ohio. Understandable. On the surface it appears that Bowling Green should have no issue winning this game but Kent St has 10 INTs, are really good on 3rd down defense AND it’s a rivalry game.
Quick Take: Gun to the head ? Kent St team total UNDER 24.
Ohio -10 Miami Ohio (56.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Ohio -7
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio 33.25 Miami Ohio 23.25
Double dose of MACtion, baby.
We get a 2nd treat on Tuesday as Miami Ohio visits Athens to take on Ohio. The Bobcats are sitting at 6-2 and are atop the MAC East. The Redhawks have a record of 3-5 BUT have been playing decent football this season despite losing their starting QB due to injury. And get this. They are only a game behind Ohio in the MAC East and control their own destiny if they can bag wins over Ohio and Akron. Don’t forget that this team is experienced and almost beat an SEC team (Miss St) in a bowl game last year. We worry about the quality of play from the QB position (Bahl – 50% completions) and the Bobcat running game that has churned out 335 and 336 yards the past two contests.
Quick Take: This feels like too many points. Lean to Miami Ohio +10.
Wisconsin -10.5 Indiana (49.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Wisconsin -13
Vegas Implied Score – Wisconsin 30 Indiana 19.5
Lots of injuries to consider as we go to press. We do not normally put much stock into anything other than the most HEINOUS injury situation but there is a cluster to look at on both sides. Indiana is 0-5 (!) in Big 10 play and sitting at 3-5 in danger of missing bowl season. QB Patrick Ramsey has been a pleasant dual-threat surprise but is listed as questionable. Leading rusher Morgan Ellison is doubtful, and even though they have some talent at WR, the Badgers are #1 in the FBS (!) in pass efficiency defense. Meanwhile the Badgers are using the Patriots’ tactic of putting the entire team on the injury list. Of course the biggest concern is RB J Taylor who has well over 1,000 yards in his freshman campaign. Indiana has the defense to hold up for a while but will probably get ground into submission regardless of who starts at RB for Wisconsin.
Quick Take: Strong lean to the under 49.5. Would look at Wisconsin as well if the line drifts below 10 (will likely depend on QB news).
Purdue -14 Illinois (47)………..MEGALOCKS line – Purdue -13
Vegas Implied Score – Purdue 30.5 Illinois 16.5
Uh, oh.
Purdue started out the season at 3-2 (congrats MEGALOCKS Purdue season win total over 2.5 members) but are now in danger of missing bowl season after losing late to Nebraska last week. They need to bag three wins in the next four games so this is close to a “must win”. The defense has been playing well but the offense has only scored 9,12,24 in the past three games. Illinois is toast for the season and playing out the string BUT they are a very young squad that could improve significantly next season a la 2017 Purdue. Their last win was back on September 9th and they are very inconsistent but capable of covering in a SNOT BUBBLER if Purdue comes out flat.
Quick Take: Lean to Illinois +14. Gun to the head total selection under 47.
Maryland -2 Rutgers (50)………..MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
Vegas Implied Score – Maryland 26 Rutgers 24
Joe Girardi. Thanks for the memories, yo.
It’s a YANKEE STADIUM cage match as Maryland tackles Rutgers on Saturday afternoon. The Scarlet Knights have been pretty competitive this season with a record of 3-5 and recent wins over Purdue and Illinois. They only managed 195 yards vs Michigan last week but that was a tough ask for this offense vs that defense. Maryland managed to slither out of College Park with a win last week vs Indiana despite being significantly outgained and are now within shouting distance of a bowl game (4-4) even though they are sputtering a lot of the time with a 3rd string QB. They finish the campaign with an UNHOLY TRILOGY of Michigan, Sparty and Penn St so they need to bag this one to have even a sniff of a chance to make a bowl game. They definitely have more weapons but Rutgers has the much better defense in our estimation.
Quick Take: Could take either side at +3.5 for small potatoes but the spread looks about right. For sickos that need a pick – Gun to the head selection under 50.
Michigan -15.5 Minnesota (41.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Michigan -13
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan 28.5 Minnesota 13
Row the boat, yo.
Minnesota has cobbled together a record of 4-4 in the first (last ? #coachingvacancies) year of the PJ Fleck era and are going to need to win a couple more games to gain bowl eligibility with a DAUNTING schedule in front of them. The defense has been solid but the offense has serious issues at QB leading to just 328,290,339 and 281 yards of offense in their past four games. Now they face Michigan. YIKES. Michigan changed QBs last week and the job (for now) is in the hands of redshirt freshman Brandon Peters who got some good work in vs Rutgers last week. The run game looked good last week and the QB change may provide the spark this team needs to finish the season with improved play. And maybe just maybe have a puncher’s chance to upset Ohio St in the finale. First things first. Handle Minnesota.
Quick Take: Game looks perfectly lined to us. Gonna recommend a full pass unless the line gets down to -14 then would take a small taste of sweet Michigan action.
Nebraska -1.5 Northwestern (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Nebraska -1
Vegas Implied Score – Nebraska 26.5 Northwestern 25
The thrill of victory !
Both teams are coming off exciting finishes (WINS) and they hook up in Lincoln on Saturday afternoon. CORN scored a late TD to beat the JUGGERNAUT Purdue Boilermakers 25-24 whilst the Wildcats needed 3-OT to dispose of Sparty. Back-to-back OT wins for the purple machine. Nebraska has had no running game the past two weeks (44,40 yards) but QB Tanner Lee is showing more UPS than DOWNS recently. Last week Lee threw for 431 yards without an INT using his excellent group of WRs to MATRICULATE in the passing game. CORN is going to have trouble running against the Cats and will need to keep firing against a defense that has allowed the most passing TDs in the Big 10 (of course, the 3-OT game inflates the stats a bit). The Huskers defense has been up and down this season but are coming off a decent game vs Purdue. The Northwestern offense is showing a bit more signs of life and should be able to match the Huskers score for score.
Quick Take: Tough game to call. Cannot back Northwestern off back-to-back OT games heading on the road BUT they are the more reliable team. Lean to the over 51.5 for small potatoes.
Ohio St -16.5 Iowa (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -14
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 34 Iowa 17.5
Whoa, Nellie ! That was a close shave.
The Buckeyes dug themselves a yuuuuuuge hole last week but found a way to stun Penn St in the 4th quarter and emerge with a critical 39-38 victory. They outgained Penn St 529-283 (!) but were very sloppy and fortunate to come out on top. The offense is rolling and have put up 500+ yards in every game other than the Oklahoma DEBACLE. The DL is rock solid and the only apparent weakness still appears to be defending the pass. Can Iowa take advantage of that ? Doubftul. QB Nathan Stanley has been pretty good (17-4 TD to INT) but they are just not dynamic enough at WR to give the Buckeyes they kind of nightmares that Penn St was able to inflict. RB Akrum Wadley is a legit #1 RB but is in deep waters this Saturday.
Quick Take: Bad match-up for Iowa. Was hoping for a line in the area of 13.5/14 to take a swing with Ohio St. Game is probably a full pass at these numbers but will monitor throughout the week.
Utah -6 UCLA (60)………..MEGALOCKS line – Utah -6
Vegas Implied Score – Utah 33 UCLA 27
This has to be one of the toughest games on the board. Utah started out on SUPAH HOT FIRE winning their first four games but have gone into FULL TANK MODE losing four straight for the first time since 2013. The defense as allowed 24,23,28,30, 41 in their five PAC 12 contests and it not performing up to their typical standards. Meanwhile UCLA continues to be one of the more erratic and frustrating programs around. Star QB and no defense. And a wacko head coach. The problem this week is the questionable status of CHOSEN ROSEN at QB. He did not practice Monday (hand ? injury ?) and Mora will probably keep it on the down low as far as his availability goes. We think he plays but watch the line movement that should tell you everything about his status. Gotta think the Utes find a way to win but not crazy about laying 6 points.
Quick Take: Run, Forrest ! Run away from this game !
Eastern Michigan -24 Ball St (47)………..MEGALOCKS line – Eastern Michigan -21
Vegas Implied Score – Eastern Michigan 35.5 Ball St 11.5
So you are saying there’s a chance ?
Our pals at Eastern Michigan fight hard every week and have just had a REALLY tough stretch of games. Six straight losses with the following losing margins – 7,4,5,1,3,3. Yup. That happened. The good news is that they are more than capable of running the table and getting back to a bowl game. Last season Miami Ohio LIVED THE IMPOSSIBLE DREAM by winning six straight to end the season (started 0-6) to make a bowl game. The Eagles definitely have the talent to do it (win their last 4 games) with a fine senior QB and scrappy defense. Even better ? The tonic this week is Ball St and they have descended into the land of PURE FILTH. They have yielded 55+ in three of their past four games and have scored just 32 points in their past four contests. Prediction: Pain.
Quick Take: Too many points but it seems like the Eagles or nothing with the point spread. We actually lean to the over 47 for a wee taster.
Western Michigan -4 Central Michigan (48)………..MEGALOCKS line – Western Michigan -3
Vegas Implied Score – Western Michigan 26 Central Michigan 22
It’s a yuuuuuge DIRECTIONAL MICHIGAN RIVALRY game and mid-week MACtion ! The Broncos have a 4-4 record and will be without starting QB J Wassink for this battle. Freshman R Goddard will take the reins and try and keep the Broncos in the division chase. They are a game behind Toledo and NIU but still play those teams later in the season. The excellent 1-2 punch at RB (J Franklin, J Bogan) will be kept busy as the Broncos try and cobble together some offense with a new QB. Central Michigan is realistically shot in terms of a division crown but they still have big rivalry games with the W Michigan and E Michigan to keep them occupied. And another bowl trip would be icing on the cake. QB SUGAR SHANE MORRIS has thrown 16 TD passes but also tossed 11 INTs. If he plays a clean game there is no reason why FIRE UP CHIPS cannot take this one outright. Neither defense is close to special.
Quick Take: Strong lean to Central Michigan +4 (see some +3.5 popping up that is fine). Hard to play the total when you don’t know how the fresh meat will do at QB.
Baylor -8 Kansas (63)………..MEGALOCKS line – Baylor -6
Vegas Implied Score – Baylor 35.5 Kansas 27.5
It doesn’t get much better than this, yo.
YOUR 0-8 Baylor Bears travel to Lawrence on Saturday afternoon to take on the 1-7 Kansas Jayhawks. Baylor will be going with true freshman Charlie Brewer at QB and he has looked decent in limited action so far. It feels like this may be the last shot for the Bears to get a win based on the games that are left on their schedule. They certainly deserve some kind of reward given all the injuries they have dealt with in 2017. HC Matt Rhule will get things figured out eventually. Kansas would love to pick up their first Big 12 win AND first win over an FBS team this week. QB Carter Stanley lit up Kansas St for over 400 yards last Saturday. Both defenses are awful. Baylor has allowed 59,38,38 in their past three games whilst the Jayhawks have given up 56,65,45,43 and 30 in the their last five contests.
Quick Take: Lean to Kansas and the over.
Missouri -3.5 Florida (61.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Missouri -1
Vegas Implied Score – Missouri 32.5 Florida 29
Randy Shannon. Next man up.
The Gators move on from your pal Jim McElwain and hope to salvage the season somewhat as they head to Columbia to take on the Tigers. The Gators have dealt with a comical number of injuries this season and need to be given somewhat of a pass on their results. Even before the DEBACLE vs Georgia they outgained Texas A&M and LSU only to lose by 3 (!) combined points in those two contests. These guys compete but there is not much ammo left in the guns. Missouri QB Drew Lock is on SUPAH HOT FIRE right now and has 28 TD passes. They have won their last two games by a combined score of 120-33 BUT those games were against patsies Idaho and UConn. They are still without and SEC win.
Quick Take: Lean to Florida at +3.5. We worry about the Missouri passing attack vs that secondary but their defense is beyond horrible. And maybe, just maybe, Florida can use some “new coach” juice to hang in there.
Texas Tech -3 Kansas St (63)………..MEGALOCKS line – Texas Tech -4
Vegas Implied Score – Texas Tech 33 Kansas St 30
This is a really interesting under-the-radar Big 12 match-up with yuuuuuge contrasts in styles. Both teams are 4-4 and need a pair of wins to get to bowl eligibility. The Red Raiders appear to be doing their traditional late season TANK JOB and have lost three straight contests. The defense is regressing and the offense has only scored 40 points in the past two games combined. Kansas St has been a disappointment this season particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Oh, and I guess the WRs stink too. The Wildcats are playing JEDI MIND TRICKS with the Red Raiders and making them prepare for three QBs. Similar styles, not great passers. Keep in mind Kansas blasted Kansas St for over 400 passing yards last week. Uh, oh.
Quick Take: Strong lean to Texas Tech but hard to pull the trigger on a collapsing team with a bad defense. Kansas St played within a TD of Oklahoma and Texas. Gut says Texas Tech; Those annoying “facts” tell us to use caution.
Auburn -15 Texas A&M (52)………..MEGALOCKS line – Auburn -11
Vegas Implied Score – Auburn 33.5 Texas A&M 18.5
The Aggies’ offense is disappearing right before our very eyes (19,19,14 points in the past three games) and now there is a QB controversy brewing. Kellen Mond has had his ups and downs and Nick Starkel is starting to make a push. Expect to see both guys on Saturday despite our SEC INSIDERS telling us that Mond would get the start. They have some nice pieces on offense but not enough game breaking talent. The defense packs a pass rush but also boasts a SOFT UNDERBELLY vs the run and that is BAD news when facing Auburn. Even without RB Pettway.
Quick Take: Really like Auburn in this game but this is just too many points. Have to take a full pass.
Mississippi St -28 UMass (58)………..MEGALOCKS line – Mississippi St -24
Vegas Implied Score – Mississippi St 43 UMass 15
Tough game to call. The Bulldogs are in a yuuuuuuge SANDWICH spot coming off a big win over Texas A&M (even though the CROWD was ROCKING) and a game with ROLL TIDE on deck. These two teams hooked up last season and the Bulldogs bagged a difficult 12 point win on the road. UMass is coming off an emotional home win vs App St in OT and it was a game in which their QB was taken off the field after a questionable hit. Ford is listed as questionable and we do NOT trust the back-up to do the same kind of work. UMass has some nice offensive weapons but this feels like a bad spot.
Quick Take: Run, Forrest ! Run away from this game.
Troy -18 Idaho (51)………..MEGALOCKS line – Troy -14
Vegas Implied Score – Troy 34.5 Idaho 16.5
Thursday night FUN BELT action, yo. Troy is still in the hunt for the Sun Belt title despite their inexplicable home loss to South Alabama. They need to win out and get at least one App St loss. The offense has improved the past couple of weeks and the defense has been excellent all season (#1 Sun Belt yards per play allowed). Idaho is coming off win over ULM and would love to make it back to a bowl game in their final FBS season. They need to bag three wins in their final four games. They have weapons on offense so Troy needs to make sure they are awake for this one.
Quick Take: Lean to Idaho +18.
Toledo -8.5 N Illinois (55.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Toledo -7
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo 32 Northern Illinois 23.5
Yes, guy !
This is another game we look forward to every year and USUALLY it involves Northern Illinois SHOCKING the WORLD. Last season was an exception but NIU has broken some Toledo hearts a lot in recent history. As per usual there is a LOT at stake as both teams are tied for first place in the MAC West with 4-0 records. Toledo appears to be peaking at the right time with the offense AND defense dominating their opponents. Northern Illinois has been frustratingly good this season. Good. But making you want and expect more. This should be an excellent game with both teams giving it 110%. Our MAC QB INSIDERS noted that the two starting QBs have combined for 3 (!!) total interceptions this season. Our MAC SCHEDULING INSIDERS will have you know that this is the Huskies 4th road game in six weeks.
Quick Take: MEGALOCKS members have alerted us to the fact that the Huskies are a DOCUMENTED 0-2 in MEGALOCKS 900 STAR TOUT SCUMBAG locks. We were talked off the ledge vs E Michigan. Maybe we have overrated this squad ? We do know that we lean to the under 55.5 for small potatoes.
Memphis -11.5 Tulsa (78.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Memphis -10
Vegas Implied Score – Memphis 45 Tulsa 33.5
Whoa, Nellie !
A total approaching 80. Should be a wild game and Memphis QB Riley Ferguson is on the ALL-MEGALOCKS team with his LASER ROCKET ARM and fantastic stats (23 TD passes). We worry about their defense, and make no mistake, Tulsa is more than capable of jumping up and biting a team that is not prepared to at least PRETEND to play defense. The Golden Hurricane season is over (2-7 record) and it does worry us just a bit that they may mail it in on Thursday. Memphis is in great shape to get to the C-USA Title game.
Quick Take: This total is out of our comfort zone. Gun to the head ? Tulsa + as many points as you can get at kickoff.
Navy -8 Temple (55)………..MEGALOCKS line – Navy -8
Vegas Implied Score – Navy 31.5 Temple 23.5
It’s Thursday night NAVY ACTION as the Middies visit Philadelphia to take on Temple.
Navy is a game back in the division and need some help to get past Memphis due to their loss to the Tigers. Navy should have a good time running the ball against the SOFT UNDERBELLY of the Temple defense although the Owls do have the benefit of playing Army in their last game on Oct 21. Temple has started to crank things up on offense (523,473,506 yards last three games) and Navy does not mind giving up yards. Navy is sure to remember last season’s loss in the conference title game to Temple BUT we realize that the Middies are machines that get up for EVERY game. The Owls need to bag three wins in their final 4 games to achieve bowl eligibility.
Quick Take: Strong lean over 55.
Arizona St -4 Colorado (58)………..MEGALOCKS line – Arizona St -4
Vegas Implied Score – Arizona St 31 Colorado 27
This game feels as unpredictable as they get. Both teams are still scrambling to get to bowl eligibility (Sun Devils 4-4; Buffs 5-4) and each squad is nice and unpredictable. Arizona St SHOCKED the WORLD with a big win over Washington and a road victory over Utah then proceeded to get destroyed by USC last week in a yuuuuuge home game. We are a bit perplexed over Arizona St because the “scores” on the schedule look pretty good but the “stats” behind the scores do not look so great. #11 in the PAC 12 in yards per play offense and LAST in yards per play defense. 11th in pass efficiency defense. #10 in run defense. #11 in sacks AND TFL allowed. Their top two RBs are averaging just 3.8 and 4.1 yards per carry. The Buffs ? They are a puzzle wrapped inside an enigma but may be turning the corner. They beat a rejuvenated Oregon St team on road, lost to Arizona by 3, hammered Cal and the only recent clunker was a bad weather game at Washington St.
Quick Take: Gut feel – Arizona St. Logic – Colorado. ARGH. Also keep in mind that Colorado HC Mike MacIntyre is an ATS JUGGERNAUT (not so much in 2017 – but has not had a losing mark against the number at Colorado as of yet). This season has been up and down but maybe just maybe they are rounding into form ? Gun to the head would take a small taste of the over.
Georgia -23 South Carolina (45)………..MEGALOCKS line – Georgia -21
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia 34 South Carolina 11
Congrats MEGALOCKS South Carolina season win total OVER club. The Gamecocks have been scrappy all season and continue to win games despite some key injuries. Say what you want, but wins are wins. South Carolina should be 0-8. Miami should have no wins. Penn St should be in the playoff even if they have three losses due to the eye test. Comedy central. But we digress.
The Bulldogs have destroyed everyone other than BURGEONING JUGGERNAUT Notre Dame by 21+ points and look to keep the ball rolling this week vs South Cackalacky. The running game and defense combo is almost impossible to deal with because your defense can’t get off the field and your offense can’t score. Football 101, yo. South Carolina has the #6 defense and #6 run defense in the SEC but have faced nothing even close to what they will see on Saturday. The good news is that one way or another they have kept teams out of the end zone as they have not allowed more than 30 points in a game yet this season.
For those who say the SEC does not have good QBs there are two REALLY good ones in this game in Jake Bentley and Jake Fromm who have combined for 26 TDs and just 8 INT.
Quick Take: Tough call. Georgia is an impossible fade right now as long as the spreads are not completely nuts. It might be a bit high but the Gamecocks are going to have a lot of problems scoring in this one. Lean to the SC team total under.