Penn St at Michigan St – College Football Predictions
The Game
It’s another big test for Penn St. Someone needs to start an inquiry into the Nittany Lions’ schedule having to play Michigan, Ohio St and Sparty in consecutive weeks. Penn St is sitting at an impressive 7-1 but are coming off the collapse at Ohio St. Sparty lost a tough one last week in 3-OT at Northwestern but can still win the division. All that stands in their way are victories over Penn St and Ohio St. Do they have a shot this week ? Let’s dig in.
The Details
Penn St -7.5 Michigan St (48)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Penn St -8
Sagarin Ratings – Penn St -15
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Penn St 27.75 Michigan St 20.25
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Penn St 31 Michigan St 17
The Match-Up
Penn St offense vs Michigan St defense
This is going to be fun to watch. Penn St has one of the most balanced offenses in college football with a talented and gritty QB (T McSorley 16 TD passes; 8 rushing TDs) and one of the best players in the country in RB Saquan Barkley (801 rushing; 471 receiving; 2 KO return TD). The WR group is really good and TE M Gesicki can do some serious damage. The Spartans have been excellent on defense (#8 FBS total defense; #3 (!) vs the run) and should be able to prevent Barkley from going crazy. He may pop one but it is going to be tough sledding on the ground. Michigan St will need to get pressure on McSorley and not allow the famous jump-ball deep passes to get completed over and over again. Penn St is last in the Big 10 in TFL allowed per game.
Michigan St offense vs Penn St defense
Our big concern for Michigan St is the lack of success they have had running the ball the past two games (89,95 yards) and now having to face a really good defense. The mobility of QB B Lewerke is going to be an asset and he will have to help move the chains with his legs. We do not see much happening in the running game. Lewerke has been decent when allowed to let er rip but Penn St is BY FAR the #1 team in turnover margin in the Big 10 (+14 – nobody else is better than +5). He has only tossed 4 INTs in 259 attempts but Penn St is finding ways to be really annoying and get extra possessions by forcing turnovers (and not giving them up themselves). Penn St is #3 in the Big 10 in sacks per game but Sparty is good at preventing said sacks.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
Last time Penn St visited East Lansing it was a 55-16 SPANKING administered by the Spartans……The over is on a 14-3-1 run in the past 18 meetings between the two teams……Penn St is on a 16-3-2 ATS streak the past 21 games…..SICK.
Summary
VERY sharp line in our estimation. We were hoping for double digits to play the Spartans but that is not going to happen. The letdown factor is real EVEN THOUGH Penn St will tell you they are still focused and taking it “one game at a time”. No playoff and no Big 10 Title would classify the season as a disappointment. It’s not over yet but the fat lady is warming up. Michigan St is scrappy and well coached but are not a complete team in the mold of Penn St at this stage. Close, but Penn St is still a TD better in our view.
Conclusion
We may have more to say on this one later in the week. Right now we have to pass on the side at this number. Penn St is a covering machine and would want a premium to back Sparty. Lean over 48 for small potatoes as we think both QBs can make some things happen.