Notre Dame at Miami – College Football Predictions
The Game
Here we go !
It’s been a LONG time since the staff at MEGALOCKS HQ have been legitimately excited about Miami football. They are not a great team yet but it is hard to argue with an 8-0 record. They have proven to be a tough out with close wins over Florida St and Georgia Tech and a dominating victory over Virginia Tech. This will be by FAR their toughest match-up of 2017.
Notre Dame has been a wrecking ball destroying everything in their path other than Georgia (one point home loss and 80000 STAR MEGALOCKS TOUT SCUMBAG WINNER). They fell asleep late last week vs Wake Forest (a 1000000 STAR MEGALOCKS YOU SUCK I HATE YOU 50 DIMER MAX UNIT LOSER), but overall, have been really impressive the entire campaign whilst playing a killer schedule.
We grew up with CATHOLICS vs CONVICTS in the 1980s (can we get banned from the internet for saying that these days ?) and are looking forward to the big game Saturday night. Let’s gooooooooooooooo !
The Details
Notre Dame -3 Miami (57.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Notre Dame -4
Sagarin Ratings – Notre Dame -6.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Notre Dame 30.25 Miami 27.25
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Notre Dame 34 Miami 28
The Match-Up
Notre Dame offense vs Miami defense
This is going to be fun. MEGALOCKS members know we have been high on the Irish all season and just love the way they go about business on offense. The running game is one of the most devastating spectacles in college football right now and it is led by an underrated (and lightning fast) QB in Brandon Wimbush who has 13 rushing TDs and a 11-2 TD to INT ratio. RB Josh Adams has not had a full workload this season (including last week) but has still rushed for almost 1,200 yards and 9 TDs at 8.7 yards a pop. The depth is excellent and the offensive line is one of the best in college football. The weapons in the passing game are going to have a tough time vs the Miami pass defense which is ranked #2 in the ACC in efficiency (8 TD 13 INT) and a unit that is #2 in the ACC in sacks per game. There will be some one-on-one opportunities to hit big plays and the Irish have to succeed on a few to win this game. Our biggest worry ? The Miami run defense is ranked #11 (!) in the ACC and rely on getting PENETRATION to keep things in check. That is going to be difficult with Notre Dame because they can destroy you inside or outside. The Hurricanes have had difficulty with missed assignments and have given up a lot of rushing yards between the 20 yard lines. They have yielded 175+ rushing yards in five of their last six games. Wimbush has not made many mistakes so the Canes will have to be strong on 3rd down (#63 FBS) and find a way to get some turnovers (three straight games with 4).
Miami offense vs Notre Dame defense
We have another underrated QB to watch Saturday night. Malik Rosier has displayed great leadership, mobility and the ability to make big plays when MATRICULATING in the passing game (19 TD passes). He has made a few too many mistakes (7 INT) and will have to be extra careful vs an opportunistic Irish defense. We have noted for weeks that Miami has a sneaky good passing attack with a loaded WR corps and BEAST TE (C Herndon). Notre Dame is definitely capable of getting roasted through the air and that is how Miami is going to win this game – if they are going to win the game. Rosier will have to do a lot of damage and mix in some timely runs on 3rd downs to move the chains. RB Travis Homer has been really good but we feel like the Irish can essentially stop the traditional run game. They allowed over 100 yards rushing last week for the first time in four weeks. Yes, they are usually playing with a lead, but they are allowing less than 4 yards per carry on the season and did a good job vs Georgia (185 yards). Last week’s lay down and die job in the 4th quarter vs Wake Forest meant that the Irish allowed more than 20 points for the first time all season.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
Both teams create havoc and are a combined +23 (!) in turnover margin……Notre Dame is over +100 vs the Vegas line this year……The Canes have allowed at least 20 first downs in all but one game this season (G Tech).
Summary
This should be a great game. We lean to the team that has played a tougher schedule and comes in a bit fresher (easy win vs Wake) against a home squad off one of their biggest wins in recent history. We prefer to back the squad who can dominate with the running game vs the team we feel will need to make hay in the passing game. Miami has displayed a soft underbelly vs the run this season and now get the ultimate test.
Miami can still have a great season with a loss (trip to ACC Championship – A win ?). Notre Dame is a team on a mission and should be able to DO WHAT THEY DO and stay within their comfort zone.
Conclusion
Official play – Notre Dame -3 -106 (sent 11:35 am EST Nov 8) (play up to -4)