Arkansas St at South Alabama – College Football Predictions
The Game
The Red Wolves have it all laid out for them. Win out and they are the Sun Belt champs. They are 4-0 in conference play and playing excellent football at the moment. South Alabama’s season is plummeting to the depths of disappointment with a 3-6 mark and they are in grave danger of missing out on a bowl game. Can they turn things around this week ? Let’s dig in.
The Details
Arkansas St -11.5 South Alabama (52.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Arkansas St -14
Sagarin Ratings – Arkansas St -11
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Arkansas 32 South Alabama 20.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Arkansas St 29 South Alabama 14
The Match-Up
Arkansas St offense vs South Alabama defense
The Red Wolves are lighting it up under star QB Justice Hansen and they have the #12 passing attack in college football. Hansen has a fine 25-7 TD to INT ratio and can run for a first down once in a while as well. That’s good because the ground attack has been pretty bad although they do get Warren Wand back for this game. South Alabama has been good against the run but really bad vs the pass. Uh oh. They have been lit up like a HOLIDAY TREE by good QBs this season and are going to have major problems with Mr Hansen and their BEVY of athletes. The Jags have allowed 61% completions and only picked off 3 passes all season (15 TDs). They are #11 in the Sun Belt in sacks per game and LAST in TFL per game. PENETRATION may be hard to find when the Red Wolves are on offense. Barring a spectacle of turnovers or strange Sun Belt happenings the Red Wolves should easily get into the 30s. <crosses fingers and toes>
South Alabama offense vs Arkansas St defense
This should be interesting. The Jags have been really bad on offense lately scoring just 27 points combined in their past two contests. And now they will be without leading rusher X Johnson who was responsible for 6 of the team’s 8 rushing TDs. They have been flip flopping two average QBs all season long but have had a bit of success. The problem ? Arkansas St has a great defense and are ranked #2 in the Sun Belt in yards per play allowed, #1 in sacks per game, #1 in TFL per game and #1 in pass efficiency defense (51% completions; 7-8 TD to INT). This is a bad match-up for the Jags.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
You want PENETRATION ? DE Ja’Von Rolland-Jones is one of the most prolific pass rushers in college football history if you go by the numbers. He is #1 ALL TIME since 2005 (37 sacks). Amaze your ANNOYING CUBICLE BUDDIES at work with that gem.
Summary
Arkansas has just finished disposing of Georgia Southern (43-25), Coastal Carolina (51-17), Louisiana (47-3) and New Mexico St (37-21). They are motivated and fresh a bye and get to face a similarly crappy team. Then again, we liked Fresno vs UNLV.
Conclusion
Official play: Arkansas St -11.5 -106 (sent 11:40 am EST Nov 9) (play up to -13)