UCLA at USC – College Football Predictions
The Game
Yes, guy. It’s USC vs UCLA time on Saturday night.
The Trojans have already reserved a spot in the PAC 12 Championship game and get a much needed bye after this game to prepare for a yet-to-be-named opponent. Their playoff chances are shot (or are they ?) but they can still have a fine season with a win over the Bruins, a PAC 12 title and a bowl victory over a solid opponent. The Bruins have sputtered to a 5-5 record but are still very much alive in terms of bowl eligibility. They need to bag a win this weekend vs USC or against Cal in the season finale. Let’s go !
The Details
USC -16 UCLA (71)
MEGALOCKS LINE – USC -14
Sagarin Ratings – USC -13.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: USC 43.5 UCLA 27.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: USC 44 UCLA 24
The Match-Up
USC offense vs UCLA defense
The Trojans have been rolling on offense lately scoring 48,49 and 38 points in their past three games. They still drive you crazy with their inconsistency but they are downright scary when they are on their game. Sam Darnold is one of the most talented QBs in the country but the 11 INTs are too many. RB Ronald Jones is a big time #1 RB (1,224 6.7, 14 TD) and WR D Burnett (911, 9 TD) leads a dangerous group of wideouts. It feels like they should be able to move up and down the field at will but you KNOW they will make some bonehead mistakes at some point. UCLA is ranked LAST in the PAC 12 in total defense and #10 in yards per play defense. There is no logical way to expect them to hold USC to under 40 points unless they can bag 2-3 turnovers. The problem with that strategy is that they are LAST in the PAC 12 in turnovers forced (10). Prognosis ? Points.
UCLA offense vs USC defense
It would be REALLY interesting to know what QB Josh Rosen could have accomplished with a functioning offensive line and a decent run game to balance things out. Rosen has already reached the 3,000 yard mark and had a great game vs Arizona St last week (380+ yards). The bodies are dropping but Rosen can turn anyone into a weapon in the passing game. RB Bolu Olorunfunmi has emerged as a decent option (60+ rushing yards in four of last 5 games) so it’s not like UCLA is without hope on offense. It’s going to be a track meet and the Bruins definitely have the capability to get hot and make things interesting for a while. The Trojans have allowed 24+ in four of their last five contests.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
This is a bit of a shocker. The under is 9-1-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams…..Points have been scored but the totals have been a bit too high……71 this week ???
Summary
Bombs away. There is no reason to expect anything less than a high-scoring game with great QB play. The question of course is whether or not “71” is too high of a number. We think the Trojans should win by double digits but it is hard to lay more than 14 when facing a QB like Rosen. And it’s a rivalry game. Hmmmmmmmmmm.
Conclusion
We have been looking at this game for a long time and it just seems perfectly lined.
Opinion: Best play on the game ? The total seems high and the trend says “under” but our gun to the head play is the OVER 71 if you need to get down. We think 65-66 is the fair number but once you get into this total range I suppose you are just splitting hairs.
Are we playing this game ? No
Dude, not even for small potatoes ? No