Georgia vs Auburn – College Football Predictions
The Game
Here we go ! Rematch time, baby.
The last two times these two teams got together it resulted in a dominating win for the Tigers. But that contest was at Auburn and this one is under a neutral setting in HOTLANTA. Will that make a difference ? Will Georgia have the confidence that they can beat Auburn AND can they develop a better game plan AND execute said plan ? They are really talented and will certainly be motivated because the SEC Championship is at stake. Let’s dig in !
The Details
Auburn -2.5 Georgia (48)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Auburn -3
Sagarin Ratings – Auburn -2
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Auburn 25.25 Georgia 22.75
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Auburn 24 Georgia 21
The Match-Up
Auburn offense vs Georgia defense
Auburn did whatever they wanted during the last meeting and rolled up 488 (!) yards of offense. They ran for 231 yards and passed for 251 and the Bulldogs had no answers for most of the game. QB J Stidham keeps getting better (16-4 TD to INT ratio, 68.5% completions) whilst having just enough mobility to make him annoying and capable of picking up the odd first down (and TD) with his legs. Of course the big news this week is the health of star RB K Johnson (1,276, 17 TD) and his absence would be a yuuuuge blow to the Tigers due to the lack of proven depth behind him on the roster. In their last meeting Johnson had 32 carries for 167 yards and also had a 55 TD reception on a beautifully executed play. The running game makes everything go but the Tigers are more than capable of hitting big plays in the passing game.
The Bulldogs have the #12 run defense in the FBS (#2 SEC) and will have to do a much better job in this game whether or not K Johnson is able to play (some or all of the game). Once that run game starts working EVERYTHING starts working and Georgia does not have the elite pass rushers (#12 SEC in sacks per game) to give Stidham too much trouble. The Bulldogs have to do a good job on first down and force a few turnovers. We worry about the physical advantage that the Tigers displayed in their recent meeting but maybe the neutral site takes that down a notch.
Georgia offense vs Auburn defense
Ok. They get another shot. The amazing RB duo of N Chubb and S Michel have combined for 2,000 yards rushing and 26 (!) TDs on the ground but they were shut down COLD in the last meeting vs Auburn. They were held to a combined 48 yards and neither back had a carry over 7 (!) yards. In fact the longest carry all day was 10 yards. The Auburn run defense is playing at a high level right now and they are also bringing the heat (#3 SEC in sacks per game). They gave Georgia QB Jake Fromm all sorts of problems in their last meeting after the opening TD drive and just dominated up front allowing no sort of running attack to get rolling. Georgia MUST have more success this Saturday and playing on a neutral field cannot hurt. We can see Chubb and Michel at least doubling their combined output but will that be enough to win ? WR Javon Wims is developing into a fine target and has caught a TD in four of his last five games. Georgia is going to have to come up a different game plan to sustain drives are else they are going to be BANG in TROUBLE once again on Saturday.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
Auburn is 7-0 at home but just 3-2 away from Jordan-Hare Stadium……Auburn’s strength of schedule as measured by the Sagarin ratings is #15…….Georgia #48.
Summary
Revenge is a dish best served cold. And in SEC Championship games. The question is – Can Georgia overcome the physical advantage displayed by Auburn in their first meeting AND do they have the chess pieces to formulate a better game plan ? The game was less than a month ago and it’s hard to imagine Georgia magically gaining the upper hand without the benefit of turnovers and/or a missing star RB for Auburn.
Assuming RB Kerryon Johnson is a go – the worry if you are Auburn ? The BIG win over Alabama last week. Will there be enough of an emotional letdown to help equalize the physical edge that Auburn displayed in their last meeting ?
Conclusion
Opinion: Best play on the game ? If we had to choose. Auburn -2.5. Really tough call.
Are we playing this game ? No
Dude, not even for small potatoes ? No