Ohio St vs Wisconsin – College Football Predictions
The Game
The Badgers enter the game with an unblemished record of 12-0 and are only one win away from a DATE with DESTINY and the College Football Playoff. The problem ? This is going to be their toughest test of the season AND it comes against a team that has had a lot of recent success vs the Badgers. The Buckeyes move like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE one week and then like a mid-tier MAC squad in other games or parts thereof. They have a shot to weasel into the playoff with a win and some help on Saturday. Let’s go !
The Details
Ohio St -6.5 Wisconsin (51.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Ohio St -3
Sagarin Ratings – Pick em
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Ohio St 29 Wisconsin 22.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Wisconsin 30 Ohio St 27
The Match-Up
Ohio St offense vs Wisconsin defense
The Buckeyes’ offense has rolled all season other than in games vs Oklahoma, Iowa and Michigan. They won a close one over Penn St but tallied 529 yards of offense. JT Barrett was a little banged up last week and did not play the entire game vs Michigan but back-up Dwayne Haskins showed some nice flashes in relief of Barrett. They looked a bit out of sorts last week and things do not get any easier this week facing a defense that is ranked #1 in the FBS in total defense, run defense and pass efficiency defense (!). That is pretty awesome. NOW, of course the trick is how to interpret those stats given the weak schedule that Wisconsin has played. It is not their fault but it is a bit of a tricky read. It seems to us that Ohio St will not have much more success than they did last week vs Michigan. That game was on the road but the Badger defense is at least a slight step up in our opinion. We do not think Barrett can hurt them consistently when MATRICULATING in the passing game other than on a few big plays. We are also skeptical about the mobility of Barrett and his ability to do damage running the ball. If he can’t get himself rolling it takes a lot of punch out of the Buckeyes’ offense. It’s hard to imagine Ohio St getting into the 30s and we peg them around 24.
Wisconsin offense vs Ohio St defense
Ohio St knows that Wisconsin will be coming at them with the power running game. Can they stop it ? Or even slow it down ? Their run defense is ranked #4 in the Big 10 but Michigan had enough success with their top-2 RBs last week (22-122; C Evans, K Higdon) so it is not unthinkable that one of the best RBs in college football Jonathan Taylor can have a big game on Saturday. He has tallied over 1,800 rushing yards and 13 TDs in 2017. Once again, however, you have to read between the lines and determine how much of a downgrade to give those stats considering the schedule that they have played. Ohio St got carved up for 243 yards on the ground vs Iowa but did a nice job vs S Barkley and Penn St. Wisconsin QB Alex Hornibrook is a capable QB but he has limited weapons in the passing game AND has tossed 13 INTs. The Badgers are #2 in the FBS in 3rd down conversions and time of possession. If they keep the chains moving and slow the game down it is going to be really tough for Ohio St to win the game let alone cover the spread. Of course the big unknown is always turnovers. Hornibrook cannot have an INT meltdown.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
Wisconsin has an edge in the FG department as R Gaglianone has hit 12/14 this season including 2/2 from 40+ while Ohio St has only made 1/3 from 40+…..These two teams met last season and it took overtime for the Buckeyes to win 30-23 in Madison…….Ohio St destroyed Wisconsin 59-0 in the 2014 Big 10 Championship game…..The Wisconsin defense has not allowed 20 points all season…..Northwestern scored 24 but that included a defensive score.
Summary
We have been wrong a LOT about Ohio St this season. We think they are good. But we zig, and they zag. Sure, they could have bagged a cover vs Michigan last week, but COULD and SHOULD don’t matter. Their tackling was sloppy and they looked out of sync for a lot of the game. They were facing a neutered Michigan offense and did not shut them down on the ground like we thought they would. Wisconsin is going to be a much stiffer challenge.
It’s hard to know just how good this Wisconsin team is, but to be honest, Ohio St has not looked too powerful against the better defenses on their docket. This feels like a one-score game.
Conclusion
Official play: Wisconsin +6 -113 (sent 7:57 pm EST Nov 30) (play down to +4.5)