Navy Midshipmen 2016 NCAA Football Preview

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NAVY MIDSHIPMEN

American Athletic Conference – West Division

2015 Record – 11-2

ATS – 9-4

2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating Rank

West Division #3

Conference #7

2015 Recap

The Midshipmen won a school record 11 games last season in the final year of the Keenan Reynolds era. Their only two losses were road tests against Notre Dame and Houston. They finished up their season with a 189th straight win over Army and a demolition of Pittsburgh in the Military Bowl. Thank you QB Keenan Reynolds. One of our all-time favorite players.

2016 Preview

OFFENSE

We cannot remember seeing this recently. A team that only returns ONE starter on offense. While it is true that the service academies often return fewer starters than most teams, that is still a lot of starting inexperience to work around especially early in the season.

Navy has to replace one of the best QBs in the history of their program. Their all-time leading rusher and phenomenal athlete and leader. Tago Smith will get the call as starting QB and it will be interesting to how he runs the offense. Obviously nobody is going to replace Reynolds but hopefully Smith can be efficient and hit the odd big play through the air. WR Jamir Tillman can provide some big plays as he averaged over 20 yards a catch last season and recorded 5 TDs.

Navy loses a ton of last seasons’s production at RB including 1,000 yards from Chris Swain. Navy reloads year after year and it will be important that they find one or two reliable or potent options particularly in light of having a new starting QB.

The Midshipmen return ZERO starters on the offensive line and they are one of the most inexperienced units in all of the FBS. We really want to drink the Navy Kool Aid here but have to put up a caution flag until we see how crisply the offense runs early on. Connecticut will be a decent test in week two.

DEFENSE

After the dismissal of starting CB Brendon Clements (4 INT last season) the Midshipmen head into 2016 with only 6 returning starters. The LB corps looks rock solid but there are losses on the DL and in the secondary that are pretty significant. Overall, the front seven is going to be pretty good but we are worried about their secondary getting torched against good passing teams. Thankfully, they do not meet anybody that fits that description until the big game against Houston on October 8th.

We feel that the defense will take a small step backwards this season. In 2015 there were ranked 40th in the FBS in total defense and 3rd in the AAC which is excellent for a service academy. It is no coincidence that their two best defensive seasons in the past seven years were also the campaigns in which they won the most games (2009, 2015 – 10 and 11 wins).

SPECIAL TEAMS

Navy loses their reliable PK Austin Grebe who hit 12/14 FGs last season and need to do a better job in the punting game. Navy was 2nd in the conference is kickoff return average and Dishan Romine will be back in 2016.

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.0

MEGALOCKS says:

This is one of the teams we are most interested in watching this season. They are Navy, so you know that they are going to be good, the question is how many wins can they rack up with so many new starters on board ?

Overall, we give the MIDSHIPMEN a 4.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season. This is such a massive transition year that we have to start the season cautious when thinking about Navy and the point spread. Other than 2013 and 2015 where they went 19-7 ATS, the other six seasons under HC Ken Niumatalolo saw them go 35-41-1 ATS (46%) and we get the sense that a .500 record against the point spread might be the high-water mark (pardon the pun).

Want more Navy Midshipmen football?

Website

http://www.navysports.com/sports/m-footbl/navy-m-footbl-body.html

Forum

http://www.scout.com/college/navy/forums/2434-gomidshipmen

News

http://www.capitalgazette.com/sports/navy_sports/

http://bleacherreport.com/navy-football

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/navy-midshipmen

http://www.scout.com/college/navy

Twitter

https://twitter.com/NavyFB @NavyFB

https://twitter.com/BWagner_CapGaz @BWagner_CapGaz Bill Wagner