2017 NEW ORLEANS BOWL – TROY vs NORTH TEXAS
Troy -6.5 North Texas (62)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Troy -6
Sagarin ratings – Troy -6.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Troy 34.25 North Texas 27.75
The Game
Here we go !
Bowl season kicks off in New Orleans on Saturday as Troy takes on the emerging JUGGERNAUT North Texas Mean Green. The Trojans have VERY quietly bagged BACK-TO-BACK 10-win seasons under their fine head coach Neal Brown and have a shot to become the first 11-win Troy squad since joining the FBS. They were co-champs of the Sun Belt after gutting out a road win over Arkansas St and now own a six-game winning streak (5th longest in the FBS).
North Texas is just two seasons removed from a 1-11 DEBACLE but yet found themselves CHAMPS of the C-USA West in 2017. It feels like just yesterday when North Texas was a BEAST, but in reality, it was essentially the TURN OF THE CENTURY the last time their fans had hope. Can they shrug off a second straight beating at the hands of Florida Atlantic and SHOCK the WORLD ? Let’s dig in, yo.
The Match-Up
Troy offense vs North Texas defense
It’s the last stand for underrated senior QB Brandon Silvers. The Trojans finished the season #3 in the Sun Belt in yards per play offense, and while they were not as explosive as many people thought they could be, the reality is that Silvers only threw 6 (!) INTs in over 400 attempts and led the team to a shared conference title. Not to mention 10 wins. The running game is effective vs weaker defenses (like that possessed by the Mean Green) and senior RB Jordan Chunn had almost 800 yards and 10 rushing TDs (28 receptions) despite missing two games due to injury. They do not have a legit #1 receiver but have a deep group of targets with which to MATRICULATE in the passing game as seven players ended the season with 200+ receiving yards. The offensive line has only allowed 13 (!) sacks all season long (#13 FBS sacks allowed per game) and the Mean Green have a lot of trouble getting PENETRATION. What else is there to say about the North Texas defense ? Well, they are ranked #10 in C-USA in defense yards per play allowed, have trouble defending the run and are weak on 3rd downs. The good news ? They have only allowed 53% completions on the season. It feels like Troy gets into the 30s unless they barf all over themselves with turnovers.
North Texas offense vs Troy defense
The Mean Green have the #18 offense in the FBS and have put up some pretty impressive numbers. They scored 43 vs S Miss on the road (a 900 STAR MEGALOCKS I HATE YOU WHAT DO YOU KNOW ABOUT SOUTHERN MISS YOU PIECE OF CRAP I HATE YOU 2,000 DIME LOSER) and 52 on Army whilst displaying a fine balance between the run and pass. QB Mason Fine tossed 28 TD passes and threw for almost 3,800 (!) yards but did throw 13 INTs. The Mean Green will be without star RB J Wilson (1,200 rushing yards, 16 TD) who was injured late in the season vs Army. Freshman Nic Smith did a good job filling in for the injured Wilson (178 yards rushing vs Rice) but cannot replace the lost experience and leadership. We are MORE worried about the excellent Troy run defense (#14 FBS) that is going to almost certainly make North Texas one-dimensional. The Trojans are ranked #12 in the FBS in sacks per game (36 on the season) and get to face a Mean Green Squad that allowed 33 sacks in 13 games. Troy is #1 (!) in the FBS in red zone defense and are going to make things really tough on North Texas if they can maintain an effective pass rush. Amaze your friends with this gem. Nine players on the team have recorded 2+ sacks. The silver lining ? Troy was ROASTED by good QBs this season and Mason Fine DEFINITELY falls into that category. The WR group is deep and talented, so make no mistake, North Texas will score some points if they can keep Fine from getting killed. <grabs popcorn>
Motivation / Intangibles
Troy – The Trojans are going for big win #11 and “should” have the crowd advantage. But will they be adequately motivated playing North Texas after being crowned as Sun Belt co-Champs ? Mixed bag, yo.
Grade – Average
North Texas – The program is moving in the right direction and you cannot underestimate the willingness and motivation to keep it going. MEGALOCKS North Texas INSIDERS have alerted us to the fact that they may not be super GEEKED UP about playing Troy, but being realistic about the situation, we see no reason to think that North Texas will not be ready to play. The only concern ? Getting their teeth kicked in by Florida Atlantic in their last game.
Grade – Above average.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Troy beat Ohio last season in the Dollar General Bowl which was their first bowl appearance since they beat…..wait for it…..OHIO in the 2010 New Orleans Bowl…..The last time these two teams hooked up was in 2012 when both teams were members of the Sun Belt Conference (Troy won 14-7 on the road)……It feels like North Texas plays Army every 2nd week but sadly we will not see that match-up on Saturday.
Summary
As with almost every bowl game played since the dawn of time there is a lot of uncertainty. Troy has the best win (LSU) and played admirably in their loss at Boise St. They crapped the bed vs our NEMESIS South Alabama, but other than that, have been pretty consistent all season. The motivation is a bit of a question mark but we like their HC and REALLY like their defense. Stay tuned for late injury news as they were pretty banged up after the Arkansas St game.
The Mean Green have four losses. Two of those were vs a really good FAU team that could give ROLL TIDE a game (just kidding. not really) and the other losses came on the road vs Iowa (cover) and SMU (bowl team). They will be able to make a lot of plays in the passing game but we worry about their defense and OL holding up.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Best play on the game: Troy TT over 34.5. Play no higher than 35. Small potatoes only.