2017 DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL – TOLEDO vs APPALACHIAN ST
TOLEDO -7 APPALACHIAN ST (61)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Toledo -7
Sagarin ratings – Toledo -7.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Toledo 34 Appalachian St 27
The Game
It’s deja vu all over again. Again.
These two programs hooked up in last season’s Camellia Bowl and it was one of the better games of the bowl season (31-28 App St win). This year they hook up in Mobile, AL and BOTH squads are still really solid. Toledo finished up the regular season at 10-2 and won their first MAC Championship since 2004. The Mountaineers bagged 8 wins and a share of the Sun Belt title. Can Toledo get revenge for last season’s loss ?
The Match-Up
Toledo offense vs Applachian St defense
The Rockets have one of the best offenses in the FBS AND one of the best QBs around in Logan Woodside who followed up his 45 TD performance from 2016 with another 28 during the 2017 regular season. Woodside can make all the throws and is very careful with the ball (only 5 INT). That is a good thing since the Mountaineers are 2nd in the Sun Belt in pass efficiency defense and only allowed 14 (!) TD passes. Toledo is devastating because they also have an excellent rushing attack as their 1-2 punch (Swanson, Seymour) combined for over 2,100 yards rushing and 26 (!) TDs. #1 WR Cody Thompson went down early in the season but the Johnsons (Diontae, Jon’vea) combined for almost 2,000 yards receiving and 18 TD receptions. App St plays sound defense against the run and the pass and do well against all but the most explosive offenses. Toledo fits into that category and averaged almost 7 yards per play in last season’s meeting.
Appalachian St offense vs Toledo defense
The Mountaineers controlled the Toledo offense last year but keeping the ball on the ground for almost 300 (!) yards of GROUND and POUND. Toledo still has a bit of a soft underbelly so the recipe will be very much the same. Use the depth of RB talent (J Moore 912, 9 TD) and timely running by QB Lamb (27 TD passes, 5 rushing) to keep the chains moving. Then go over the top on play action to create big plays. They outgained Toledo 416-374 last season and will need to win 3rd down and time of possession to stay in this game.
Motivation / Intangibles
Toledo – Off the MAC title its hard to say how geeked up they will be for this game. They DO have the revenge card should they choose to play it.
Grade – Average.
Appalachian St – A share of the Sun Belt Title. 4 losses. Not exactly what they were hoping for BUT still a decent campaign. They beat Toledo last season in a bowl game.
Grade – Below Average.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Toledo DE O Adeniyi will miss the first half of the game due to a targeting violation……The Rockets have to believe that a year-end Top 25 ranking is in the cards if they can finish the season with 12 wins.
Summary
Neither team has a definitive weakness. Both squads are well coached. Toledo has the edge with their ability to MATRICULATE in the passing game but the Mountaineers are sure to have success running the ball. It feels like the line is about right. We originally leaned a bit to App St and now think Toledo just might have that mystical motivation edge that is so hard to predict YET so powerful.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Best play on the game: Toledo team total over.
Dude, you on this game for small potatoes ? No.