2017 HAWAII BOWL – FRESNO ST vs HOUSTON
HOUSTON -1.5 FRESNO (49)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Fresno St -3
Sagarin ratings – Fresno St -1
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Houston 25.25 Fresno St 23.75
The Game
ALOHA !
What a turnaround. The Bulldogs won just a single (!) game in 2016 and looked really bad doing it. New HC Jeff Tedford got this team to within a quarter of winning the Mountain West Championship but fell short by a FG at Boise. A win over Houston in the Hawaii Bowl would mean 10 wins and one of the rare times (fun with math) that a team can win 10 times as many games as they did the previous season. The Cougars were erratic under first year HC Major Applewhite and finished up the campaign at 7-4. The roster boasts a lot of talent and can be really dangerous on any given Christmas Eve. Let’s roll !
The Match-Up
Houston offense vs Fresno defense
The Cougars have shown flashes this season and can boast a pretty decent rushing (#53) and passing (#39) attack. New QB D’Eriq King has excellent mobility, and while he is still raw, the passing ability is getting better (6-1 TD to INT; 70% completions). They don’t have a true home run hitter at RB but do enough to keep the chains moving. WR Steven Dunbar is a good bet to exceed 1,000 yards on the season in this game (873) and #2 option L Bonner has 850 yards (listed as Q). What worries us ? Well they love to turn the ball over (21 – T90 FBS), take too many penalties and are ranked #106 in time of possession.
Nobody has scored more than 21 points on this Fresno defense if you exclude the road games at ROLL TIDE and WASHINGTON early in the season. They got Boise twice. They are ranked #3 in the Mountain West in yards per play defense and #2 in TD passes allowed (13). They are #33 in the FBS in sacks per game and really do a good job of team defense and getting max PENETRATION. Oh, and they are ranked #15 in the FBS vs the run despite playing ROLL TIDE, Washington, Boise (2), and San Diego St.
Fresno offense vs Houston defense
It all starts with a dominating offensive line and a steady QB. Fresno led the Mountain West in sacks per game allowed (#3 FBS) AND tackles for loss allowed (#2 FBS) which enables the running game to go to work and pound the SOFT UNDERBELLIES of opposing defenses. They have a 3-headed monster that tallied 18 rushing TDs and QB M McMaryion adds a nice dash of mobility. The WR group is underrated and is led by KeeSean Johnson (918) who is a legit #1 target. Four players can boast a TD reception of 60+ yards.
Houston has one of the best players in college football in DL Ed Oliver and the Bulldogs #1 priority will be to stop him from making a mockery of their offensive game plan. The good news is that they have an excellent offensive line and generally keep the QB clean. Houston’s defense is ranked #83 in the FBS and has shown weakness vs the run and the pass on different occasions. We think that the worst match-up for the Cougars is a lunch bucket team that is physical and just takes it to you for four quarters. Houston has only allowed 10 (!) TD passes all season long despite giving up a lot of passing yards. The red zone defense has been good and they need to force as many FGs as possible and maybe even get 8 turnovers like Wyoming did vs Central Michigan.
Motivation / Intangibles
Houston – Hmm. Well they didn’t meet their season goals and now have to deal with the Hawaii distraction whilst playing a Mountain West team. They do, however, want to erase the memory of the egg they laid last season vs San Diego St.
Grade – Below Average.
Fresno St – There were no expectations in 2017 but came REALLY close to SHOCKING the WORLD and winning the Mountain West. There is lots to build upon. Fresno is familiar with the trip to Hawaii and won in this stadium just about a month ago.
Grade – Very good to excellent.
MEGA BOWL BITES
HC Jeff Tedford is 5-3 in bowl games whilst Major Applewhite is still learning the ropes (0-1)……Fresno has lost 6 (!) consecutive bowl games and last tasted victory back in 2007.
Summary
It’s never easy to predict how a bowl game will go on December 24th. In Hawaii. We will roll with the better defense, better QB, better HC and (hopefully) the more motivated team that is familiar with the surroundings.
Conclusion
Official play: Fresno St +1.5 (play down to pick em) (sent out 12:41 pm EST Dec 23)