2017 QUICK LANE BOWL – DUKE vs NORTHERN ILLINOIS
DUKE -5.5 NORTHERN ILLINOIS (47.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Duke -6
Sagarin ratings – Duke -8
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Duke 26.5 Northern Illinois 21
The Game
It’s Motor City time, baby !
Duke started out on SUPAH HOT FIRE this season with four wins and then proceeded to lose six games in a row. Wut ? They rallied to win their last two games and slither into their bowl game with a 6-6 record. The Huskies had a decent campaign at 8-4 but still fell short of their goals (winning the MAC West; MAC Title). They look to get off their recent bowl slide with a win over an ACC school. Let’s roll.
The Match-Up
Duke offense vs Northern Illinois defense
The Blue Devils have the tools to get things done on offense but they have been sadly inconsistent over the course of the campaign. QB Daniel Jones shows flashes of being really good AND really bad (12-11 TD to INT) MATRICULATING in the passing game. He also has decent mobility. The 1-2 punch at RB is the strength of the offense with S Wilson and B Brown combining for over 1,400 yards and 11 TDs. The number one priority for Northern Illinois is to limit the ground game and force Duke into 3rd and medium and 3rd and long situations. Bad things often happen to this offense when that is the case. The Huskies did a fine job against the run this year (#11 FBS) and were ranked #18 in total defense. And amaze your friends with this tidbit – The Huskies are #1 in the FBS in TFL per game and #2 in sacks per game. THAT, my friends, is PENETRATION.
Northern Illinois offense vs Duke defense
QB Marcus Childers is improving as the season moves along but he is still pretty raw. Childers has a good 15-5 TD to INT ratio but only completes about 57% of his passes. There are not a lot of dangerous options in the passing game (nobody on the team with more than 500 receiving yards) and they will be without leading rusher Jordan Huff for this contest. Duke finished up the regular season ranked #23 in total defense and were #25 in pass efficiency defense. It feels like Duke will be able to handle the Huskies’ offense for the most part and just need to make sure they give Northern Illinois long fields to work with and no (or few) free points.
Motivation / Intangibles
Duke – It’s hard to see them too geeked up for this game BUT we give them credit for beating Ga Tech and Wake Forest in their final two games to get to 6-6. They could have mailed it in. HC Cutcliffe is just 1-3 in bowl games with Duke but those were all in the underdog role.
Grade – Below Average to Average.
Northern Illinois – They are probably a bit disappointed with the season BUT can wipe it all away with a win over an ACC squad. HC Rod Carey is 0-4 (!) in bowl games but they were outmatched in three of those affairs. Hard to trust that guy though, yo.
Grade – Average.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Duke will be without rock solid P/PK Austin Parker for this game so field goals could be an adventure and/or you may see them go for it more than normal……Duke was outscored 184-158 in ACC play…..Northern Illinois finished behind Toledo and FIRE UP CHIPS in the MAC West race and those teams did not look too stellar in their bowl games.
Summary
Northern Illinois can keep this close. They are just hard to back when thinking about the lack of offensive weapons and the near-epic coaching mismatch. They did hang with BC and San Diego St early in the season.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Best play on the game ? NIU plus the points. See if you can get +6 in game day if you really need action.
Dude, are you playing this game, even for like small potatoes, like ? No.