2017 TEXAS BOWL – MISSOURI vs TEXAS
MISSOURI -2.5 TEXAS (60.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Missouri -4
Sagarin ratings – Texas -4.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Missouri 31.5 Texas 29
The Game
This should be fun.
We get to see a traditional powerhouse program (Texas) trying to get back near the top of the college football world vs the UPSTART Missouri Tigers who won their final six games to finish up at 7-5. Those wins were against weak competition so it will be fun to see what they can do against a talented Texas squad. The Longhorns lost close games to USC, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St but bring a depleted roster into this bowl game. Can they rise to the occasion ? Let’s goooooooooo !
The Match-Up
Texas offense vs Missouri defense
This should be interesting. We have lost track of all the players that will miss the game due to suspension, injury or “NFL prep time” but do know that Shane Buechele will get the start at QB. He only threw 6 TD passes (!) in 200 attempts (4 INT) and is going to need to play really well to give Texas a shot. We may see Sam Ehlinger at QB as well. He only completed 56.5% of his passes and had a 10-7 TD to INT ratio. The leading rusher ? Ehlinger with a paltry 368 yards. The RB group is lacking in talent and will not have their most talented back Chris Warren III for this game. They have a legit #1 WR in Collin Johnson but lack explosiveness and production in the unit. Star LT Connor Williams will not play.
The good news ? Texas should be able to get things done on offense even with a skeleton squad. The Tigers finished up the regular season ranked #88 in total defense and #94 in scoring defense. They were weak against the run and the pass and #111 in the FBS on 3rd downs. We DO like their ability to get PENETRATION as they were #1 in the SEC (!) in TFL per game and #4 in sacks per game. The goal will be to create a lot of negative plays and force mistakes. Texas will have to be patient.
Missouri offense vs Texas defense
Whoa, Nellie.
The Tigers scored 68,52,45,50,45,48 during their six game season-ending winning streak. They ripped teams to shreds but this is TEXAS they are facing in this game and not scrubs from Idaho or UConn. QB Drew Lock is an absolute PASSING MACHINE firing for almost 3,700 yards and 43 TD passes (12 INT). Lock completed 58% of his passes and averaged an amazing 9.6 yards per attempt. The WR group is loaded with talent and is led by J’Mon Moore (1,017) and Emanuel Hall (24.8 yards per catch). Freak TE Albert Okwuegbunam emerged late in the season and had 116 and 63 yard games to end the campaign (11 TDs on the season). The deadly passing attack is complemented by the #35 running game in the FBS. The Witter/Roundtree/Crockett combo rushed for over 2,100 yards and 13 TDs. Want more ? Missouri only allowed one sack per game (#6 FBS, #2 SEC).
Texas played tough defense this season (#7 vs run; #40 overall) but did give up a lot of passing yards. They only allowed 29,13,24 and 27 to Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, TCU and USC. That is impressive. The problem is that it is REALLY hard to say how well they will fare in this game due to the comical number of players that will be missing this game for a variety of reasons. If Missouri was facing the defense that Texas fielded most of the season we would look at this game in a very different light. It just seems like a tall task to ask the Longhorns to hold up for 60 minutes against the onslaught. They will need to force turnovers and probably bag a defensive score (or special teams) to stay in the game. As we have seen during bowl season this is CERTAINLY possible.
Motivation / Intangibles
Missouri – Keep the momentum going in 2018 and beat TEXAS. Surely they are more excited for this game. The end of season momentum may have been slowed by the time off.
Grade – Above Average.
Texas – The program is a bit of a mess. HC Tom Herman will get this turned around but there has been a LOT of cleaning house needed this season. Our guess is that they want 2017 to be over with and are already looking forward to better times ahead. The wild card – HC Herman has proven pedigree in winning games when the underdog.
Grade – Below Average.
MEGA BOWL BITES
The Longhorns get to play close to home but that did not seem to help SMU…….Texas has not won a bowl game since the 2012 Alamo Bowl when they beat Oregon St……Missouri last appeared in a bowl game in 2014 and have reeled off three straight postseason wins….This will be HC Barry Odom’s first kick at the bowl cat.
Summary
It’s time for the second edition of tales from BAND CAMP STORY GUY……He already warned us about Rocky Long and how he may not be the greatest defensive mind against the option….This time ?…..Well one year in BAND CAMP….Missouri beat nobody…..There is no doubt about that as the combined winning record of teams that the Tigers beat was 27-55 (.329). But did you know that the Longhorns beat teams with a winning record of 25-48 (.342) ? In fact three of their six wins were over juggernauts SJ St (2-11), Baylor (1-11) and Kansas (1-11). Now they did beat three teams with 7-5 records AND played some really good teams tough. The question becomes – what would the team taking the field IN THIS GAME have been able to do ?
We rarely go against the team with the better defense – and that is still Texas – but we feel that over 60 minutes of trading punches the Tigers will get the upper hand. And we are guessing the motivation edge lies with Missouri as well.
Conclusion
Official play: Missouri -2.5 -106. Sent 12:22 pm EST Dec 26. Play up to -3.