2017 NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP – ALABAMA vs GEORGIA
ALABAMA -3.5 GEORGIA (44.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Alabama -3
Sagarin ratings – Alabama -3.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Alabama 24 Georgia 20.5
The Game
First off, congrats to ROLL TIDE and Georgia and their FANS for getting to the big game. This has the makings of an old-school classic with two great teams (combined record 25-2) that can run the ball, play great defense and feed off mistakes. Georgia won a classic Rose Bowl shootout vs Oklahoma in a game that could have gone either way. They have to feel like they are not only a REALLY good (great ?) team but also a TEAM of DESTINY. And then there is ROLL TIDE. What else can you say about these guys ? A shot at another National Championship after suffocating the potent Clemson Tigers. They appear to be on a MISSION. Georgia will not be intimidated.
Here we go !
The Match-Up
ROLL TIDE offense vs Georgia defense
You know what’s coming. The offense is not pretty YET somehow they are ranked #27 in the FBS in total offense and #10 running the football. The passing game is not sexy but they have one of the best WRs in college football (Calvin Ridley – 59, 935 4 TD) and Jalen Hurts has only thrown one (!) INT all season. ROLL TIDE is ranked #8 in passing efficiency. Hurts can also hurt you with his mobility and provides excellent balance with the 1-2 RB punch of D Harris and B Scarbrough. Those three men have bagged 27 rushing TDs so far this season. It is going to be tough sledding vs the tough GA defense (#31 FBS, #8 vs run) and do not be alarmed by the performance vs Oklahoma. The Sooners had a devastating offense and ROLL TIDE provides a much more conventional attack that they can handle. Our biggest worry for GA ? They have shown a bit of a SOFT UNDERBELLY at times (nitpicking lol) vs the run and ROLL TIDE may be able to wear them down. The X-Factor (who doesn’t love that term ?) for Alabama ? Maybe, just maybe, another WR steps up and makes a big play. Henry Ruggs III is a decent candidate (5 TDs; 2 catches last week vs Clemson)
Georgia offense vs ROLL TIDE defense
That was SO MUCH fun to watch. Nick Chubb (145) and Sony Michel (181) ripped the Oklahoma defense to pieces with big runs countering the DEVASTATION that the Sooners’ incredible offense inflicted upon them for most of the game. It’s the million dollar question (another awesome phrase). Can the Dawgs get the run game cooking against the BRICK WALL that is the Alabama defense ? ROLL TIDE is now ranked an amazing 1-1-1-1 in terms of total defense, rushing defense, pass efficiency defense and scoring defense. Ridiculous. They played like their hair was on fire last week vs Clemson but face a new challenge this week in the form of TWO future NFL RBs. Maybe more if you include their depth. QB Jake Fromm has been truly special as a true freshman (!) playing BIG TIME football in their biggest games. Fromm has an excellent 23-5 TD to INT ratio and can make all the throws. The good news for ROLL TIDE is that Fromm does not provide much (if any) threat running the football and they do not have to account for a running QB. Georgia has an emerging star at WR in Javon Wims (704, 7 TD), and overall, we think the receiving group is a bit underrated. Can Fromm get them the ball before getting drilled in the pocket ? You can argue that Clemson needed to take some additional deep shots vs ROLL TIDE but it was clear early on that the pressure inflicted by the pass rush was going to make that very difficult. Our biggest concern for ROLL TIDE ? If their offense cannot make some first downs and GA wins the time of possession it is QUITE possible that the Georgia running game gets cooking in the 2nd half. Ace in the hole (the hits keep coming with these cheesy phrases, yo) for the Bulldogs ? Field position and/or points courtesy of return man Mecole Hardman.
Motivation / Intangibles
ROLL TIDE – Both teams are motivated. Duh. You might say that they have a chip on their shoulder and that makes them even more dangerous. We underestimated the intensity they would bring vs Clemson last week. ROLL TIDE also has the experience edge playing in more big games and HC Saban has won 5 of these bad boys (4 – ROLL TIDE, 1 – LSU).
Grade – Very good to excellent.
Georgia – They have to feel pretty good about themselves. SEC Champs and winners of a HUGE GUT CHECK win over a powerful Oklahoma squad. We worry a bit about coming back in a week after a 2-OT game and flying back from out west. The good news ? HC Smart is more than capable of knowing how to handle the ROLL TIDE offense. It can’t hurt having the game in HOTLANTA.
Grade – Very good.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Only seven active head coaches have defeated Nick Saban in 16 (!) years in the SEC with LSU and ROLL TIDE……..Georgia last won it all back on January 1, 1981 with the incomparable Herschel Walker leading the charge.
Summary
It’s truly hard to go against either of these squads. We ultimately side with ROLL TIDE due to 1) insane defense 2) big time HC with experience 3) mobility at QB 4) better spot for Alabama (GA – off 2-OT, travel). Both teams do a good job taking care of the football. We give ROLL TIDE a slight edge in terms of probability of creating disruptive and big plays on defense. Georgia has a big shot in this one. Their offense just has to stay on the field and do their best to wear down the Alabama D. A tall task, but not impossible.
Enjoy the game !
Conclusion
Official play: Will decide within the next few hours.
Best play on the game ? ROLL TIDE -3.5 -110. Strong lean.