College Football Predictions – Ball St Cardinals 2018 NCAA Football Preview
2017 Recap
Record – 2-10
ATS – 3-9
Ball St got off a good start winning two of their first three games including a 20-point win over a solid UAB squad. Things got really ugly after they lost their starting QB and #1 RB to season-ending injuries. They had a seemingly impossible stretch in which they allowed 55+ points in four straight games (56,58,56,63). That’s not ideal.
The Cardinals will have an experienced and (hopefully) healthy squad heading into 2018. Is it too much to hope for a bowl bid? Let’s dig in.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #5
MAC – #9
Ball St Cardinals 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
It should be all systems go for QB Riley Neal who got off to a fine start before being injured early last season. Neal has completed well over 60% of his passes in his career and rushed for 8 TDs in 2016. When Neal chooses to MATRICULATE down the field in the passing game he will have a very experienced receiving group to throw to including emerging star Justin Hall who led all freshman WR with 78 receptions in 2017 (2nd Team MAC). There is an embarrassment of riches at RB with a pair of players that have recorded 1,000-yard campaigns (Caleb Huntley 1,003 LY, James Gilbert 1,332 in 2016). Malik Dunner is a home-run hitter that bagged 8 TDs on the ground last season. If the offensive line can do a decent job this season (3/5 returning starters) the offense should pack a nice punch. Regardless, they will most definitely improve their performance over last year’s injury-riddled campaign (17.9 PPG).
DEFENSE
The Cardinals ranked #10 in the MAC in total defense last year (422 YPG) and allowed over 40 PPG. Ball St has not allowed less than 30 PPG since 2014, and if they want to make a bowl appearance this year, our MAC INSIDERS tell us that a significant improvement must be made on defense. The defensive line is a big question mark this year with zero returning starters and the loss of excellent pass rusher Anthony Winbush who bagged 11.5 (!) sacks in 2017. Nobody else recorded more than three sacks last year and the Cardinals are going to have to find a replacement for some of the PENETRATION provided by Mr Winbush. The good news is that seven starters return in the LB and DB groups and there are a lot of young players ready to take a step forward.
Ball St yielded 50+ points on five separate occasions last season and we don’t think there will anything close to that DEBACLE in 2018.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The need to figure this “punting” thing out after ranking #128 last season with a terrifying 30 yard net. When they weren’t shanking punts into the CONCESSION AREA they were getting punts blocked (4). PK Morgan Hagee hit only 9/16 FG attempts last year. One positive is the emergence of Malik Dunner at KR (24.4, TD LY).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s tough. The out-of-conference docket includes trips to Notre Dame and Indiana. They also have tough back-to-back road games vs Ohio and Toledo.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Toledo (October 31). This will be their 3rd road contest in four weeks and Toledo is a tough place to play. Additional concern applies if the season is already down the drain at this point.
Season Win Total
Over 4 +100
Under 4 -130
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over as we approach press time. The Cardinals should be much approved, although we do worry about the nasty schedule. The good news is that there are definitely three to six wins right there for the taking.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Ball St has an all-time bowl record of 0-7. You know MEGALOCKS NATION will be pulling for these guys to win when they get another shot.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 7.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the CARDINALS a 7.0 ATS Value Rating (Good) this season.
There is hope on the horizon in our humble opinion. The Cardinals have a legitimate shot to get back to a bowl game provided that they can avoid the catastrophic injury bug. We think the offense will be good enough to keep them competitive in most games but the defense absolutely needs to take a step forward. The talent is unproven, but there is certainly upside.
HC Mike Neu is 10-14 vs the point spread in two seasons leading the Cardinals. This is a make or break year and our gut tells us this team will be a money-maker over the course of the season.
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