College Football Predictions – Ohio Bobcats 2018 NCAA Football Preview
2017 Recap
Record – 9-4
ATS – 9-4
Oh, boy.
Ohio seemed ready to make a trip to the MAC Championship game before they fell to Akron as double-digit favorites late in the season. They made amends in the Bahamas Bowl by whipping UAB (W 41-6) but had to feel disappointed that the MAC East slipped through their fingers.
It’s right there for the taking once again. Can they follow through this time around?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #1
MAC – #1
Ohio Bobcats 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
It’s always nice to start the season knowing you have the best QB in the conference leading the offense. QB Nathan Rourke was a dual-threat machine last year throwing for 17 TDs and rushing for 912 yards and 21 (!) TDs. Yup, that happened. The WR group is experienced and led by senior WR Papi White (17.5 YPC LY). The Bobcats only allowed 16 sacks last season and bring back 4/5 starters to what is going to be one of the MAC’s best offensive lines. The running back group will miss Dorian Brown (11 rushing TD, 6.8 YPC LY) but they return the ageless AJ Ouellette who rushed for over 1,000 yards in 2017.
Ohio had the #1 scoring offense in the MAC last season (39.1 PPG) and we think they will be a handful once again in 2018. Look for them to be at or near the top of the MAC offensive stats when the season comes to a conclusion.
DEFENSE
The Bobcats finished #5 in the MAC in total defense last year and enter this campaign with a few question marks. They only return four starters to the stop unit and lose the services of their all-time leading tackler and 1st Team MAC selection LB Quentin Poling. The defensive line is a particular area of concern as the entire starting group is new. The good news is that HC Frank Solich almost always features a competent defense and there are a few nice pieces to work with this year. LB Evan Crouch is solid and the secondary returns three starters including senior CB Jalen Fox. They will however miss the services of CB Bradd Ellis who had an amazing 19 PBUs in 2017.
The Bobcats have a good recent history on defense but it’s hard to see them matching last season’s mark of 24.2 PPG allowed (#4 MAC).
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Bobcats boast an excellent PK in Louie Zervos who made 15/18 FG attempts last season with two of the misfires coming from 50+ yards. They look strong across the board and will field one of the best special teams groups in the conference.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s pretty easy. The non-conference slate features home games with Howard and Massachusetts while the road dates are both winnable (Virginia, Cincinnati). They get two of the other prime contenders in the division (Buffalo, Akron) at home the final two weeks of the season.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Northern Illinois (October 13). This will be their fourth roadie in five weeks and the Huskies look really good on paper.
Season Win Total
Over 8.5 +110
Under 8.5 -140
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. The Bobcats always seem to find a way to lose a small handful of games so it’s hard to fully trust them. AMIRITE?
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Ohio had only been to TWO (!) bowl games (1962, 1968) prior to the arrival of Frank Solich in 2005. Since then they have been to 9 bowl games including eight of the past nine seasons.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the BOBCATS a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
The Bobcats are going to be a tough train to derail. The offense is stacked and all they need to be a championship-level team is to find a way to play their usual sound defense. And not lose a game or two they have no business losing. The division is deeper than you might think but Ohio is still the class of the lot.
Ohio has rolled up three consecutive winning seasons vs the point spread (25-15, 62.5%) and we think the odds are decent they make it a FOUR-BAGGER.
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