Penn St at Pittsburgh – College Football Predictions
The Game
Penn St and Pitt meet for the 99th time on Saturday night in Pittsburgh with PENNSYLVANIA bragging rights on the line. Penn St escaped with an OT win vs scrappy Appalachian St last Saturday while the Panthers tuned up with a win over FCS foe Albany. Pitt missed out on bowl season for the first time since 2007 last year. Can they take down the mighty Nittany Lions?
This is a VERY underrated and intense rivalry. Let’s go!
The Details
Penn St -8.5 Pittsburgh (56)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Penn St -6
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Penn St 32.25 Pittsburgh 23.75
The Match-Up
Penn St offense vs Pittsburgh defense
There is a reason why Penn St has won 21 of their past 24 games. It all starts with QB Trace McSorley who is one of the best QBs in college football. McSorley came through in the clutch last week and pulled out the win throwing for 229 yards and a TD whilst rushing for another two TDs on the ground. The offense lost a lot of production from last season’s high-powered offense but we feel they will get better as the season rolls along. RB Miles Sanders rushed for almost 100 yards last week and McSorley distributed the ball effectively among a bunch of weapons.
Pitt has played solid defense for three straight games dating back to last season (41 total points allowed vs VT, Miami, Albany) and have nine starters back from the 2017 stop unit. Pitt improved from allowing 35.2 PPG in 2016 to 26.6 PPG in 2017 and our PITT STATISTICAL INSIDERS believe they will improve again this year. Will they be able to stop the Penn St attack? That is close to an impossible task BUT we think they have adequate proven talent to get enough stops. They just have to somehow, someway refrain from giving up huge chunks of yards in the passing game. That has killed them the past two seasons.
Pittsburgh offense vs Penn St defense
The Panthers were comically horrible at QB last year before Kenny Pickett took over at QB. All Pickett did was lead an upset of YOUR Miami Hurricanes in his first start and he has displayed confidence and mobility in his short tenure as the #1 signal caller. The offensive line is a bit of a concern but thankfully Penn St only returns a pair of starters on defense and showed a bit of a SOFT UNDERBELLY vs Appalachian St as Jalin Moore bagged 88 yards rushing on 18 carries. The deep Pitt RB group should be able to have success on the ground this week and allow Pickett time to be effective down the field. Appalachian St started a new QB last week vs the Nittany Lions and he did not have many problems throwing for 270 yards and a pair of TDs (1 INT….in OT). Pitt should be able to find balance on offense and will provide a stiff test for the Nittany Lions’ defense.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Penn St holds a 51-43-4 advantage in 98 meetings with Pitt……This is game three of a four game series with each team bagging a home win so far…..The last time these two teams played a night game was back in 1987……Penn St HC James Franklin says he was “misquoted” but legend (and audio and video) will tell you that he said beating Pitt was similar to beating Akron……Take that for what you will………
Summary
This game feels like a one-possession affair. Pitt is definitely motivated to get this game BIG TIME and Penn St would be thrilled to leave town with a one-point win. Penn St has the ultimate warrior at QB and enough speed on both sides of the ball to give Pitt fits. We feel like we are catching an abundance of tasty points as we don’t see the Panthers laying an egg. Will Penn St suffer a letdown? That is extremely doubtful. The perceived line value lies with Pitt so we will take a stab.
Conclusion
Official play: Pitt +8.5 -108