Colorado vs Colorado St – Preview and Prediction
COLORADO 8 COLORADO ST (56)
Implied Projected Score: Colorado 32 Colorado St 24
MEGALOCKS LINE – Colorado 6
The Game
The 90th edition of the Rocky Mountain Showdown takes place in Denver on Friday night. The Rams lost last season’s game in extremely painful fashion and hope to make amends this time around. Both teams would love to win this game (hot take) but Colorado has to have a bit more urgency knowing that they face road games at Michigan, Oregon, USC and Stanford all before the end of October.
The Match-Up
Colorado offense vs Colorado St defense
The Buffaloes return 9 starters to an offense that only managed 24.6 points and 397 yards offense per game in 2015. That is not going to get it done in the PAC 12. Senior QB Sefo Liufau is back for his senior season to lead the offense but he only managed a mind-bending 9 (nine) (neuve) (neuf) TD passes in 345 attempts. And that was with 1000-yard receiver Nelson Spruce who departs. The Buffs allowed 41 sacks last year but do return a lot of experience on the offensive line. The running back group has some depth but not much size. The OL only paved the way for 3.7 yards per carry in 2015.
The Rams are down to three returning starters on defense after LB Deonte Clyburn was lost for the season. Colorado St has done a nice job on defense the past three seasons allowing under 30 points per game in each of those campaigns. However, that was with much more experienced units, and this year they have a new DC (Marty English returns). We are particularly concerned about the DL which does not return any starters from the 2015 team.
Normally, we would be very worried about the Rams defense, but they should able to handle the Buffs’ attack and prevent a complete blowout. If Colorado does go up and down the field with ease the alarm bells should be going off if you are a Rams’ fan.
Colorado St offense vs Colorado defense
Nick Stevens is back at QB for Colorado St….or is he ? HC Mike Bobo has indicated it is going to be a surprise-type-deal until September 2nd. It is is not impossible to think that the infamous Faton Bauta (Georgia transfer sent to wolves vs Gators last year) could get the start in the opener. Regardless, we feel that both QBs are capable.
We have a lot of faith in the Colorado St offensive line. They are experienced and paved the way for 198 yards rushing per game last season while only allowing 17 sacks. The running game should work fine even if Matthews cannot play due to injury. A bigger concern is the reload at WR. When you combine the inexperience in that unit with the talent in the Colorado secondary it has to make you wonder how effective the Rams passing game will be on Friday.
Colorado’s defense made huge strides under DC Jim Leavitt in 2015 and return almost the entire starting unit in 2016. Skeptics will say that this same defense gave up over 500 yards to the Rams last season. Colorado St was last in the Mountain West in turnover margin in 2015 (-12) and they have no shot of winning this game if they give Colorado a bunch of free points.
Tasty Tidbits
The underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in the past four meetings #smallsamplesize – however the under has hit in seven of the last eight meetings….The Rams lost only lost THREE games by double-digits all of last season and that was against Boise St, San Diego St and Utah St…..just saying.
Summary
We were hoping this line would be a lot closer to 5 or 6 when it came out, but sadly, here we are at over a TD. That is too much for us to give up in a rivalry game despite the fact that the Buffs are one of ATS teams to watch this year. Colorado St will play like their hair is on fire, and who knows, maybe HC Mike Bobo is a rising star who can pull a rabbit out of the hat.
Conclusion
No official play.
Lean: No leanage as of yet.