MLB tidbits – Friday, May 3
Some quick thoughts on today’s MLB card. A couple of sentences detailing some of the stuff we considered when looking for investment opportunities.
Lines per Pinnacle at time when notes posted.
Hopefully this helps your handicapping. We always post rationale with our picks with the goal of helping people graduate from being betting zombies. Read. Consider. Make a wagering decision.
13-game board tonight. Cubbies / Cards already underway.
Tampa Bay at Baltimore (7:05 pm)
Rays -226 Orioles +206
Line continues to surge and with good reason. Glasnow has a fine 38-7 K to BB ratio and an ERA well under 2.00. Straily is PURE FILTH and has yielded 24 hits in 18 innings whilst sporting a 7-9 (!) BB to K ratio. Rays shrugged off their doubleheader loss at the hands of the Royals and took the series finale yesterday. Feels like TB runline (-1.5) would be the best play….We are taking a pass….Don’t see much value had this bad boy lined at -200….Player notes….Lowe is the hottest Ray right now but overall team a bit cold with the bats…..Orioles ice cold with the bats.
Minnesota at New York (7:05 pm)
Yankees -153 Twins +141
This should be a fun series……The Twins are moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE (19-10) and are off to a good start in their hopes of SHOCKING THE WORLD and delivering a nice payout for MEGALOCKS FUTURES CLUB members…..It’s still May 3rd though, yo…..Tons of baseball left….Yanks get full marks for their record given the plague of injuries….Paxton has been MOWING peeps down and has been lethal at home…..9 hits in 19 IP with a 29-3 K to BB ratio and ERA well under ONE…..Gibson is just a guy (JAG) but is coming off two QS vs the Orioles…..Will take a shot with NY F5 innings do not trust their pen to hold a lead should they get one…..Player notes Gardner 5/13 vs Gibson….Cron 5/17 with two DONGS vs Paxton…..Voit mashing for NY….Kepler 4 HR last 7 games.
Oakland at Pittsburgh (7:05 pm)
Pirates -119 Athletics +110
Hard to get too excited about the offenses in a park that turns DONGS into soft pop-outs but Musgrove has been dealing for the Buccos….24 hits in 5 IP and a fine 31-7 K to BB ratio….Anderson is JAG for the As but faces a line-up that has been sttttrrrruggggling for most of the season…..As lose the benefit of the DH……They have lost 6 straight and are 4-11 on the road……Lean to the Pirates at the short price not on it yet though….They have disappointed us so far when going to the windows……Player notes…..Melky 4/7 with a double and a DINGER vs Anderson…..Melky hot right now for Pittsburgh……As only a pair of dingers in last 7 games.
Washington at Philadelphia (7:05 pm)
Phillies -162 Nationals +149
Eickhoff gets the call for the Phillies and faces a very unimpressive Nats lineup cut down by injuries and mysterious back spasm fiascos (Soto)…..He has looked good so far and is coming off an outing in which he threw 7 shutout innings….It was vs Miami but the Marlins have roughed up a few good starters…..Hellickson is worse than JAG but can be annoying to fade because the slop he throws out there can make hitters look silly for about half a game if he is on……Line is a bit high but would be on Phil or nothing…..Player notes…..Harper has a pair of DONGS off Eickhoff…..Eaton is 5/9 with a 2B and HR off JH….Hoskins and Realmuto are hot…..Nats bats fairly cold.
Seattle at Cleveland (7:10 pm)
Indians -143 Mariners +132
The BEEBS gets the call for the Tribe and he is one of the SPs still standing for the Indians…..The BEEBS is 4/6 in QS but has walked 8 dudes L3 starts and faces a Mariners team that can bury almost any SP…..Weather should help both SPs….Kikuchi has done ok in his maiden MLB voyage but is slightly better than JAG and has allowed more hits than IP…..Line looks about right to us. Pass…..Player notes…..Active Mariners are just 3/25 off the BEEBS…..Mariners only have 3 DINGERS in the last 7 games…..Indians bats just ok lately Santana probably the guy hitting the best.
Royals at Tigers (7:10 pm)
Tigers -150 Royals +139
Detroit starting to become WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE but do have BURGEONING ACE Matt Boyd on the bump tonight who has 48Ks in 37 IP whilst only allowing a pair of DONGS…..Lopez is pretty rotten but so is the Tigers lineup…..Feels like Tigers or nothing but we can’t lay -150…..Player notes…..The starting 9 are hitting 9/21 off Lopez…..the Royals bunch hitting .333 (!) 23/69 off Boyd…..Whit Merrifield is 12/25 with 4 2B and a 3B…..Dozier and Merrifield hot for KC…..Hmm this info definitely makes it a pass on Detroit for us.
Atlanta at Miami (7:10 pm)
Braves -159 Marlins +146
Line is a bit rich for our liking even though it’s hard to back Miami…..Urena has dealt three straight QS and the Braves pen is TRASH……Gausman has allowed 10 ER in his last two starts…..Gonna pass on this bad boy…..Player notes…..Granderson has 2 DINGERS in 9 AB vs Gausman….Something called an Alfaro is 4/8 off KG with a 2B and a HR….Starting 9 for HOTLANTA is .289 off Urena…Freeman is 8/20 with a pair of BOMBS and Inciarte is 7/20 with 3 XBH…..Albies is HOT for the Braves….The two best Marlins hitters over the past week or strangely enough Granderson and Alfaro.
San Francisco at Cincinnati (7:10 pm)
Reds -149 Giants +137
It’s time for another “we like the Reds” blurb…..Sonny Gray is….dare we say it….looking like a borderline all-star allowing only 21 hits in 29 IP with a fine 36-8 K to BB ratio…..Giants are starting something called a Beede who is making his first appearance of the year after walking 8 batters in a 7 inning cup of coffee last season….Reds pen is decent and so is the Giants….Most likely outcome is the Reds jumping out early and holding on……Another likely outcome is Reds 24 Giants 1 after two innings…..And of course since it’s baseball…..Yet another possibility is Giants jump out early and win…..LOL…..-149 seems like a good deal will go with Reds ML. Player notes……Longo Dongo is 10/32 off Gray….Giants bats are cold only Posey is hitting….Reds are also sttttrrrruggggling and playing their last series on the road vs the Mets in that cavernous park did not help……Reds stud prospect Nick Senzel makes his ML debut….Go Reds!
Los Angeles at San Diego (10:10 pm)
Dodgers -151 Padres +139
Yes, guy. Kershaw appears to be healthy based on his performance so far in 2019…..3/3 in QS and a nice 21-4 K to BB mark….Lauer has not had a quality start since MARCH and this Dodger lineup is pretty scary….Not as much as vs righties but they are always a threat to hit BOMBS….You know we like ourselves some Padres and their pen is really good…..Line was destined to be in this range we would have only taken a price around -135. Pass. Player notes……The HOSE MAN Eric Hosmer is 5/15 off CK with a HR…..He is also 12/28 over the last week…..Kike and JT are hitting well over the last 7 days and Bellinger is the GOAT.
Arizona at Colorado (8:40 pm)
Diamondbacks -110 Rockies +101
The SNAKES continue to defy gravity and have an impressive 18-13 mark in the first week of May….The Rockies are starting to dig themselves out of the giant hole they created by still find themselves in 4th place in the division…..Ray is an accident waiting to happen at SP (17 BB in 31 IP) and now gets to contend with Coors Field….Tyler Anderson might be the worst SP in MLB or at least on the Mt Rushmore…..26 hits allowed in 16 IP 10 BB and 6 DONGS allowed…..Lean to SNAKES F5 innings but will probably stay off it knowing that Coors contain a ton of randomness…..Player notes……Blackmon is an impossible 17/36 with 4 DONGS off Ray…..Arenado is killing the baseball right now and has 3 career HR off RR….Nick Ahmed is 5/10 with two DINGERS off Anderson…..The Rockies are mashing overall and Dahl coming off a nice game…..Escobar and Marte are hot for Arizona.
Boston at Chicago (8:10 pm)
Red Saaaax -175 White Sox +161
The Saaaax blew the game WICKIDDD HAAAARD last night using the popular HIGH LEVERAGE SITUATION bullpen strategy….Cool story, bro…..My model shows jumping out of a plane is “+ EV” in betting terms so let’s try that too……Having said that their bats are heating up and they have Sale on the mound who just might be coming around (24 K L3 starts)…..Lopez had 14 K last outing but this is BAAASTON and they can make even the best pitcher look bad…Could be a long night for the White Sox but the price is too high…..Player notes….Benenennninenetendi is hot and Mookie is GOAT…..Abreu is still mashing…..Active Chicago players hitting just .185 off Sale (10/54).
New York at Milwaukee (8:10 pm)
Brewers -132 Mets +121
Not much to say about this game as we have it lined right at the number (-130)…..Matz has had one bad outing all year (a disaster, yo) and Woodruff has been just fine for the Crew…..Milwaukee can’t wait to get Yelich back as the Cardinals are starting to pull a DISAPPEARING ACT on them and sadly Josh Hader can’t play every position…..Taking a pass on this one. Player notes…..Aguilar is on fire for the Brewers and don’t sleep on MOOOOSETAKKKAS…..Mets only 3 DONGS in the last week but do get a park upgrade in this series.
Toronto at Texas (8:05 pm)
Rangers -138 Blue Jays +127
Rangers F5 is worth a look…..Jays offense has been comically bad in the first 3-4 innings this season and Thornton is due and READY to get OBLITERATED in a really tough park for opposing SP….Just ask G Cole…..Thronton has allowed 12 BB and 5 DINGERS already and never gets too deep into the game…..Minor has been a nice surprise for Texas (4/6 QS) and has an ERA below 3 and a decent 39-12 K to BB mark……Player notes…..Drury and Sogard have been hitting well for Toronto lately….Gallo and CHOO CHOO each have 3 HR in the past week…..Texas a LOT better at home.
GL and enjoy the games!! Thanks for reading.