College Football Predictions – Boise St Broncos 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 10-3
ATS – 8-5
That was a strange way to end the season. First off, they DIDN’T win the Mountain West Championship Game. Fresno St slipped past them in overtime (L 19-16). And then the bowl game. No First Responder Bowl this year, kids. Cancelled due to weather.
It was still another successful season for Boise St as they booked their fourth double-digit win campaign in the past five years. Bryan Harsin has a 52-15 record with the Broncos and has kept these guys in good form. Let’s see if another title run is in the cards.
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Mountain Division – #1
Mountain West – #1
Boise St Broncos 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
The big challenge for the Broncos this year is replacing their #2 all-time leading passer in Brett Rypien who was the starter in Boise for four years. Rypien had a really efficient season in 2018 as he rode off into the sunset throwing for over 3,700 yards with a fine 30-7 TD to INT mark, and 67% completions. The QB battle will continue into fall camp and the starting role will fall into lap of true freshman (!) Hank Bachmeier or sophomore Chase Cord. Any way you slice it, the Broncos are going to have a question mark under center for the first time in a while.
RB Alex Mattison ran with the WHITE HOT INTENSITY OF 1,000 SUNS and is off to the NFL (Vikings) after rushing for over 1,400 yards and 17 TDs (!) a season ago. Nobody in the RB room had more than 200 yards rushing LY so it’s a bit of a puzzle right now in terms of who grabs the #1 role. THE HITS KEEP COMING in terms of lost production when you ponder the WR corps that loses their top-two from last year’s squad that combined for over 1,800 yards and 16 TDs. John Hightower is an emerging star (31, 504, 16.3, 6 TD LY) and Boise always seems to find gems at WR. Now for some better news. The offensive line should be the best in the conference as they return all five starters to the mix including a pair of 1st Team Mountain West honorees on the left side. They also appear to have a strong TE group and that will help keep a young QB comfortable.
Boise will still manage to book 30 PPG (35.4, 32.5 L2Y) but figure to be less explosive with an inexperienced QB.
DEFENSE
Boise St plays solid defense pretty much every year, and the 2018 group was no exception. The Broncos finished #4 in total defense in the conference (356 YPG) , #3 vs the run (123 YPG) and #1 in sacks (39). The Broncos return seven starters and should be stout once again. They are very strong at DT, particularly with the return of DT David Moa, and they will still be able to cobble together a decent pass rush as per usual with talented pass-rushers like Curtis Weaver (9.5 LY) back in the fold. The secondary should take a big step forward after a disappointing 2018 campaign (#6 MW pass efficiency D, only 7 INT). The group has a bunch of experienced players including last year’s #1 tackler safety Kekoa Nawahine and senior CB Avery Williams who was a 1st Team Mountain West performer in 2017.
The Broncos move on without their fine DC Andy Avalos who is off to work with the Oregon Ducks, and that is a bit of a concern. They hired an experienced DC in Jeff Schmedding who previously worked at Eastern Washington, but it remains to be seen if they can maintain the level of defense we are used to seeing year after year.
SPECIAL TEAMS
This was a problem area last year and we still don’t have a great feeling about things. The Broncos need to work in a new PK, a new punter and must greatly improve the KR and PR units.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The opener against Florida St is not going to be an easy game but they avoid Fresno St and San Diego St in conference play. They finish up with two road tests (at Utah St, at Colorado St).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing stands out.
Season Win Total
Over 10 +110
Under 10 -130
MEGALOCKS says:
Boise St pumps out 10-win seasons like nobody’s business but we lean to the ‘under’. Eleven wins would be very impressive with a brand new QB and a reload at RB and WR.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Albertsons Stadium introduced the famous blue SMURF TURF in 1986. The stadium was known as Bronco Stadium until 2014 when the naming rights were purchased by grocery chain Albertsons.
On January 1, 2007, the Broncos capped a perfect 13-0 season with a dramatic 43-42 Fiesta Bowl win over the Oklahoma Sooners. Check out the highlights of that game some time. You will not be disappointed.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Neutral
All they do is win games. It’s pretty impressive. This year may be a challenge as they work in a young QB and figure out how to play with a new DC. The Broncos lost a lot of production at the skill positions and have to improve the special teams play. The schedule looks very favorable and we can see these dudes getting on a roll once conference play begins.
Boise St has a record of 35-32 ATS under the watch of HC Bryan Harsin with only one losing season vs the number in five years (2016). We recommend avoiding Boise St most of the time when in the role of home favorite (23-40 ATS L10 years, 36.5%) and focusing on them when they hit the road (36-16 ATS L10 years as road chalk, 69%).
Want more Boise St Broncos Football?
WEBSITE
http://www.broncosports.com/sports/m-footbl/sched/bosu-m-footbl-sched.html
FORUM
https://247sports.com/college/boise-state/Board/Blue-Turf-Board-103542/
https://boisestate.forums.rivals.com/forums/the-blue.22/
http://www.scout.com/college/boise-state/forums/2245-bronco-corral
NEWS
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/68/boise-state-broncos
http://bleacherreport.com/boise-state-football
TWITTER
Hashtag – #BleedBlue
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